BKMA’s recent win over Gandzasar gives them a slight lift, yet the model still favours an FC Urartu victory. The odds show a 20% chance of a home win, 20% for a draw, and 60% that the visitors will come away with the win, making an away win the single most likely result. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most probable scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. BKMA, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.88 goals scored and 2.62 conceded, while FC Urartu, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.67 goals scored and only 0.67 conceded. The model’s selections include an 90.4% probability that the match will see over 1.5 goals, and a 73.8% chance of over 2.5 goals. These are the only picks offered, each with its own probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, FC Urartu, failed to deliver, as BKMA snatched a 2-0 home win, extending their recent win. The model had picked an away win with a 60% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 90.4% probability, while Over 2.5 missed at 73.8%. The most likely scoreline of 1-2 had only a 9% chance, and the expected total of 3.8 goals was far from the 2-goal outcome. BKMA’s home form shows a win after a 3-0 triumph, whereas Urartu’s away form was a draw. The final result was a home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BKMA win✓ Hit
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu win✗ Miss
59.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.77
1.71
2.00
0.88
1.56
vs Stronger (19)
0.74
2.26
0.88
2.62
0.64
2.00
vs Similar (11)
2.18
0.91
2.83
1.17
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
1.53
1.00
2.20
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.53
1.59
1.12
1.00
1.89
2.11
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
0.85
2.00
1.00
2.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.4%
Under 1.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
73.8%
Under 2.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.6%
Under 3.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
69.6%
No
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.0%
1-1
8.1%
1-3
7.3%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-3
5.2%
2-1
5.1%
2-3
5.1%
BKMA goals ↓
FC Urartu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
4.5%
6.4%
5.2%
3.2%
1
2.3%
8.1%
9.0%
7.3%
4.5%
2
2.1%
5.1%
6.3%
5.1%
3.1%
3
1.0%
2.4%
2.9%
2.4%
1.5%
4
0.3%
0.8%
1.0%
0.8%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = FC Urartu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
BKMA is 0.64 points worse than FC Urartu in terms of average points per game (0.75 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
BKMA is 0.47 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
BKMA is 0.50 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.57
0.93
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
1.21
0.25
1.12
0.36
1.27
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.36
1.00
0.67
0.40
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.62
0.12
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.38
0.86
0.57
1.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
1.14
1.07
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (19)
0.42
1.05
0.62
1.50
0.27
0.73
vs Similar (11)
1.45
0.55
1.83
0.50
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
0.80
0.67
1.47
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.88
0.50
0.88
1.44
0.89
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.46
1.14
0.43
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
BKMA's squad is €3m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA and FC Urartu have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
BKMA's defence is €2m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pyunik Yerevan
FC Noah
Ararat-Armenia
Alashkert
Ararat
West Armenia
Shirak
Van