A tight, low-scoring affair is expected as BKMA, who have struggled at home against stronger opposition, face FC Urartu, who have been prolific away. The model favours an away win, with a 52 % chance for FC Urartu, 18 % for BKMA and 30 % for a draw. The average number of goals is 2.2, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15.2 % chance, reflecting the defensive solidity of the home side and the attacking edge of the visitors. BKMA’s home form shows 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded against stronger teams, while FC Urartu’s away form boasts 1.22 scored and only 0.33 conceded versus weaker opponents. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (99.3 %), Under 5.5 (97.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (96.1 %), Away +2 handicap (94.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.3 %) and Under 4.5 (93.1 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
BKMA win
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu win
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.53
0.93
1.27
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (16)
0.88
2.19
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.38
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.79
0.86
0.43
1.57
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.00
2.07
1.40
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.65
1.10
2.00
1.29
1.14
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.15
4.00
0.20
1.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.9%
Under 1.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
36.8%
Under 2.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
17.4%
Under 3.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.8%
No
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.2%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
12.7%
0-2
11.7%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.2%
0-3
5.6%
2-1
4.4%
BKMA goals ↓
FC Urartu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
15%
12%
5.6%
2.0%
1
7.2%
13%
8.6%
4.1%
1.5%
2
3.1%
4.4%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
3
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = FC Urartu goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
BKMA is 0.80 points worse than FC Urartu in terms of average points per game (0.80 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
BKMA is 0.80 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
BKMA is 0.20 goals worse than FC Urartu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BKMA or Draw
47.6%
Avg Implied -
18%
30%
52%
covers BKMA + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA or FC Urartu
70.5%
Avg Implied -
18%
30%
52%
covers BKMA + FC Urartu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Urartu
81.9%
Avg Implied -
18%
30%
52%
covers Draw + FC Urartu
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BKMA over/under 0.5
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5
Over
76.0%
Under
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 3.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BKMA, so a minus line means BKMA give that many goals of a start and FC Urartu receive them. At -1, BKMA must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BKMA win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BKMA)
BKMA -2
1.2%
Draw -2
4.3%
FC Urartu +2
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BKMA)
BKMA -1
5.5%
Draw -1
12.5%
FC Urartu +1
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (BKMA)
BKMA +1
47.6%
Draw +1
25.5%
FC Urartu -1
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (BKMA)
BKMA +2
73.1%
Draw +2
16.4%
FC Urartu -2
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.27
0.53
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.88
0.12
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.36
0.43
0.29
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.93
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
0.77
0.00
1.60
0.00
0.25
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.0%
Under 0.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.5%
Under 1.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.6%
Under 2.5
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.2%
Under
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.67
0.73
0.53
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.56
1.31
0.88
1.25
0.25
1.38
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.43
0.43
0.14
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Urartu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Urartu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
1.00
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.59
1.00
0.50
1.40
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.15
2.40
0.20
0.88
0.12
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.8%
Under 0.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.6%
Under 1.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.6%
Under 2.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.8%
Under
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Urartu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
BKMA's squad is €3m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA's attack is €2m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA and FC Urartu have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
BKMA's defence is €2m less valuable than FC Urartu's (€1m vs €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Alashkert
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
Shirak
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van