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BKMA vs Gandzasar Result & Analysis

Date: 05/12/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 2-1
BKMA
BKMA
Vs
44%
29%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

BKMA are tipped to win the Armenia Premier League clash against Gandzasar, with a 44% chance of a home victory, 29% for a draw and 27% for an away win. The model expects a modest 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% probability. BKMA, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average one goal scored and 1.75 conceded, while Gandzasar, on the road to a weaker side, average 2.5 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 goals at 76.3% and Over 1.5 goals at 72.0%. The match’s overall shape points to a tight contest where BKMA’s recent win and Gandzasar’s recent struggles set the stage for a likely home triumph.

Results analysis

The match saw BKMA extend their recent win streak, with the victory against Gandzasar adding a third straight win to their five-game run. The model’s favourite was a home win, a 44% chance, and the prediction proved correct as BKMA secured a 2-1 triumph. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, had a 13.9% probability, but the actual 2-1 result still fell within the model’s overall forecast of a 2-goal total. The suggested picks were also largely accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit with a 76.3% probability, and Over 1.5 goals hit with a 72.0% probability. All selections settled as predicted, confirming the model’s strong performance.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BKMA win✓ Hit
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BKMABKMA

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W02L10W61W12L02L24L24L32W11DH·FC 25/09A·ARA29/09H·ALA07/10A·GAN19/10H·PYU23/10A·ALA27/10H·ARA02/11A·FC 06/11A·VAN22/11H·ARA27/11
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.870.711.501.622.19
vs Stronger (20)1.352.101.001.751.582.33
vs Similar (10)0.901.400.331.171.751.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L02L16L01L01L00D05L03L04L01LH·SHI27/09A·WES07/10H·BKM19/10H·ALA23/10H·WES27/10A·SHI31/10H·PYU07/11A·ARA21/11H·FC 28/11A·PYU02/12
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.631.001.811.641.43
vs Stronger (6)0.672.170.672.670.671.67
vs Similar (12)1.081.830.401.601.572.00
vs Weaker (12)1.831.171.501.622.500.25
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
Under 1.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
10.7%
0-0
9.7%
2-1 ✓
9.0%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
7.6%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
4.7%
BKMA goals ↓
Gandzasar goals →
01234
09.7%7.6%4.7%1.6%0.4%
111%14%6.6%2.3%0.6%
28.5%9.0%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.0%4.2%2.2%0.8%0.2%
41.4%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = Gandzasar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
BKMA is 0.95 points better than Gandzasar in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 0.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
BKMA is 1.00 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 0.46).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
BKMA is 0.70 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 2.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BKMABKMA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L00D31W12L01L13L03L20W11DH·FC 25/09A·ARA29/09H·ALA07/10A·GAN19/10H·PYU23/10A·ALA27/10H·ARA02/11A·FC 06/11A·VAN22/11H·ARA27/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.870.360.860.810.88
vs Stronger (20)0.601.100.381.250.751.00
vs Similar (10)0.600.400.330.331.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L13L01L00D00D02L01L00D00DH·SHI27/09A·WES07/10H·BKM19/10H·ALA23/10H·WES27/10A·SHI31/10H·PYU07/11A·ARA21/11H·FC 28/11A·PYU02/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.500.750.640.64
vs Stronger (6)0.500.830.331.330.670.33
vs Similar (12)0.420.670.000.200.711.00
vs Weaker (12)0.750.670.880.880.500.25
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BKMABKMA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L10W30W00D01L11D21W12L00DH·FC 25/09A·ARA29/09H·ALA07/10A·GAN19/10H·PYU23/10A·ALA27/10H·ARA02/11A·FC 06/11A·VAN22/11H·ARA27/11
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.000.360.640.811.31
vs Stronger (20)0.751.000.620.500.831.33
vs Similar (10)0.301.000.000.830.751.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L03L00D01L00D03L02L04L01LH·SHI27/09A·WES07/10H·BKM19/10H·ALA23/10H·WES27/10A·SHI31/10H·PYU07/11A·ARA21/11H·FC 28/11A·PYU02/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.970.501.060.570.86
vs Stronger (6)0.171.330.331.330.001.33
vs Similar (12)0.671.170.401.400.861.00
vs Weaker (12)0.580.580.620.750.500.25
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
BKM wins
0
Draws
0
GAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BKMA vs Gandzasar · H/A from BKM
DateH/AGameScore
19/10/24AGandzasar Vs BKM1-6

BKMABKMA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/11/24HBKM Vs Ararat1-1
22/11/24AVan Vs BKM2-3
06/11/24AFC Urartu Vs BKM4-2
02/11/24HBKM Vs Ararat-Armenia2-4
27/10/24AAlashkert Vs BKM2-0
23/10/24HBKM Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-2
19/10/24AGandzasar Vs BKM1-6
07/10/24HBKM Vs Alashkert1-0
29/09/24AArarat-Armenia Vs BKM2-0
25/09/24HBKM Vs FC Urartu2-1

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/12/24APyunik Yerevan Vs GAN1-0
28/11/24HGAN Vs FC Urartu0-4
21/11/24AArarat-Armenia Vs GAN3-0
07/11/24HGAN Vs Pyunik Yerevan0-5
31/10/24AShirak Vs GAN0-0
27/10/24HGAN Vs West Armenia0-1
23/10/24HGAN Vs Alashkert0-1
19/10/24HGAN Vs BKMA1-6
07/10/24AWest Armenia Vs GAN2-0
27/09/24HGAN Vs Shirak1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BKMA
BKMA
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWD0.82
HomeWWLLD0.83
AwayLWLLW0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%21%23%
AVG goals3.082.923.23
Over 1.5 %76%79%73%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %38%33%42%
Scored1.141.001.27
Conceded1.941.921.96
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet16%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.80
HomeLLLLL1.84
AwayDLDLL1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%60%52%
AVG goals3.363.323.40
Over 1.5 %82%76%88%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %34%36%32%
Scored2.042.082.00
Conceded1.321.241.40
BTTS36%20%52%
Clean Sheet40%52%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah3075
80%
2.5
9220+72
3.7
90%
80%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5343.10.7
-
2Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3066
70%
2.2
7528+47
3.4
93%
80%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.50.9
-
3FC UrartuFC Urartu3059
60%
2.0
6233+29
3.2
83%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.11.1
-
4Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3053
57%
1.8
5937+22
3.2
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.01.2
-
5VanVan3052
50%
1.7
5636+20
3.1
87%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
6BKMABKMA3036
33%
1.2
4454-10
3.3
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.51.8
-
7ShirakShirak2932
31%
1.1
2750-23
2.7
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.91.7
-
8AraratArarat2929
28%
1.0
3359-26
3.2
86%
66%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.12.0
-
9West ArmeniaWest Armenia2726
30%
1.0
2467-43
3.4
85%
63%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
10AlashkertAlashkert2923
17%
0.8
2152-31
2.5
76%
38%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3120.71.8
-
11GandzasarGandzasar287
4%
0.2
1370-57
3.0
75%
57%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.52.5
-
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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