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BKMA vs Gandzasar Result & Analysis

Date: 23/08/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 0-0
BKMA
BKMA
Vs
57%
25%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

BKMA are tipped to edge Gandzasar at home, with the model picking a home win and a 57% chance of victory, 25% for a draw and 17% for an away win. The expected total of 2.7 goals suggests a moderate scoring affair, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. BKMA’s home form against stronger opposition shows they average 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded, while Gandzasar on the road against weaker teams averages only 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include an 75.3% chance of Over 1.5 and a 72.5% chance of Under 3.5. The final score of 0-0, a draw, confirms the predicted draw probability of 25%. The recent form narrative is that BKMA are coming off a win, while Gandzasar are after three straight defeats.

Results analysis

BKMA’s win-to-draw streak was halted as the match finished 0-0, a result that surprised everyone. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 57% probability but proved wrong, with the game ending in a draw. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 75.3%, missed, while its Under 3.5 pick, at 72.5%, hit. The final score of 0-0 matched the actual result, confirming the draw. BKMA, fresh from a 3-0 victory, had been expected to continue their form, but Gandzasar’s defensive resilience kept the scoreline flat. The model’s overall prediction missed the mark on the outcome.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

BKMA win✗ Miss
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BKMABKMA

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L32W11D21W01L04L20W22D11D21WH·FC 13/04H·SHI18/04H·VAN26/04A·PYU04/05H·FC 11/05A·ARA18/05H·ALA22/05A·GAN26/05H·FC 02/08H·SHI16/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.731.441.441.362.07
vs Stronger (21)1.381.951.451.551.302.40
vs Similar (9)1.441.221.401.201.501.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L01L04L01L12L10W22D11D01L14LH·PYU12/04A·FC 20/04H·ARA25/04A·ALA02/05H·VAN12/05H·SHI17/05H·BKM26/05H·ARA01/08A·FC 09/08A·FC 17/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.502.470.572.640.442.31
vs Stronger (10)0.203.400.203.600.203.20
vs Similar (14)0.502.000.401.800.562.11
vs Weaker (6)1.002.001.252.500.501.00
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%017%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.7%
0-0 ✓
8.2%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
BKMA goals ↓
Gandzasar goals →
01234
08.2%5.1%2.7%0.8%0.2%
111%12%4.9%1.4%0.3%
211%9.7%4.3%1.3%0.3%
36.5%5.7%2.5%0.7%0.2%
42.9%2.5%1.1%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = Gandzasar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
BKMA is 0.07 points better than Gandzasar in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 0.78).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
BKMA is 0.37 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.74).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
BKMA is 0.04 goals worse than Gandzasar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.52).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BKMABKMA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D10W00D00D02L10W00D01L10WH·FC 13/04H·SHI18/04H·VAN26/04A·PYU04/05H·FC 11/05A·ARA18/05H·ALA22/05A·GAN26/05H·FC 02/08H·SHI16/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.620.750.571.07
vs Stronger (21)0.521.050.640.910.401.20
vs Similar (9)0.780.560.600.401.000.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L00D12L00D00D10W00D13LH·PYU12/04A·FC 20/04H·ARA25/04A·ALA02/05H·VAN12/05H·SHI17/05H·BKM26/05H·ARA01/08A·FC 09/08A·FC 17/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.000.291.000.311.00
vs Stronger (10)0.201.400.201.400.201.40
vs Similar (14)0.430.710.400.600.440.78
vs Weaker (6)0.171.000.251.000.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BKMABKMA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L32W01L21W01L02L10W22D10W11DH·FC 13/04H·SHI18/04H·VAN26/04A·PYU04/05H·FC 11/05A·ARA18/05H·ALA22/05A·GAN26/05H·FC 02/08H·SHI16/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.830.810.690.791.00
vs Stronger (21)0.860.900.820.640.901.20
vs Similar (9)0.670.670.800.800.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GandzasarGandzasar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L03L01L00D10W22D01L01L01LH·PYU12/04A·FC 20/04H·ARA25/04A·ALA02/05H·VAN12/05H·SHI17/05H·BKM26/05H·ARA01/08A·FC 09/08A·FC 17/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.201.470.291.640.121.31
vs Stronger (10)0.002.000.002.200.001.80
vs Similar (14)0.071.290.001.200.111.33
vs Weaker (6)0.831.001.001.500.500.00
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.3%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.572.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
BKM wins
1
Draws
0
GAN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

BKMA vs Gandzasar · H/A from BKM
DateH/AGameScore
26/05/25AGandzasar Vs BKM2-2
05/12/24HBKM Vs Gandzasar2-1
19/10/24AGandzasar Vs BKM1-6

BKMABKMA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/25HBKM Vs Shirak2-1
02/08/25HBKM Vs FC Urartu1-1
26/05/25AGandzasar Vs BKM2-2
22/05/25HBKM Vs Alashkert2-0
18/05/25AArarat-Armenia Vs BKM4-0
11/05/25HBKM Vs FC Urartu0-1
04/05/25APyunik Yerevan Vs BKM1-2
26/04/25HBKM Vs Van1-1
18/04/25HBKM Vs Shirak3-2
13/04/25HBKM Vs FC Noah1-5

GandzasarGandzasar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/25AFC Noah Vs GAN4-1
09/08/25AFC Urartu Vs GAN1-0
01/08/25HGAN Vs Ararat1-1
26/05/25HGAN Vs BKMA2-2
17/05/25HGAN Vs Shirak1-0
12/05/25HGAN Vs Van1-2
02/05/25AAlashkert Vs GAN1-0
25/04/25HGAN Vs Ararat-Armenia0-4
20/04/25AFC Noah Vs GAN1-0
12/04/25HGAN Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

BKMA
BKMA
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDW0.96
HomeDLWDW1.15
AwayDLWLD0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%31%17%
AVG goals2.942.623.29
Over 1.5 %76%77%75%
Over 2.5 %54%46%62%
Over 3.5 %34%19%50%
Scored1.161.041.29
Conceded1.781.582.00
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet16%23%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Gandzasar
Gandzasar
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLL1.20
HomeLLWDD1.28
AwayLLLLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%40%32%
AVG goals2.982.923.04
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.221.161.28
Conceded1.761.761.76
BTTS38%28%48%
Clean Sheet26%36%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia2760
67%
2.2
5025+25
2.8
70%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.90.9
-
2FC NoahFC Noah2756
59%
2.1
6119+42
3.0
81%
56%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.30.7
-
3Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan2755
63%
2.0
3718+19
2.0
63%
37%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.40.7
-
4AlashkertAlashkert2753
59%
2.0
4223+19
2.4
74%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.60.9
-
5FC UrartuFC Urartu2749
52%
1.8
4326+17
2.6
67%
41%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
6VanVan2731
33%
1.1
2740-13
2.5
67%
56%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.5
-
7BKMABKMA2723
15%
0.9
3042-12
2.7
81%
52%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.6
-
8GandzasarGandzasar2721
19%
0.8
2041-21
2.3
59%
33%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.5
-
9ShirakShirak2713
7%
0.5
1751-34
2.5
67%
44%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.61.9
-
10AraratArarat2713
11%
0.5
2163-42
3.1
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.82.3
-
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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