BKMA are tipped to edge Gandzasar at home, with the model picking a home win and a 57% chance of victory, 25% for a draw and 17% for an away win. The expected total of 2.7 goals suggests a moderate scoring affair, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. BKMA’s home form against stronger opposition shows they average 1.45 goals scored and 1.55 conceded, while Gandzasar on the road against weaker teams averages only 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include an 75.3% chance of Over 1.5 and a 72.5% chance of Under 3.5. The final score of 0-0, a draw, confirms the predicted draw probability of 25%. The recent form narrative is that BKMA are coming off a win, while Gandzasar are after three straight defeats.
Results analysis
BKMA’s win-to-draw streak was halted as the match finished 0-0, a result that surprised everyone. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 57% probability but proved wrong, with the game ending in a draw. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 75.3%, missed, while its Under 3.5 pick, at 72.5%, hit. The final score of 0-0 matched the actual result, confirming the draw. BKMA, fresh from a 3-0 victory, had been expected to continue their form, but Gandzasar’s defensive resilience kept the scoreline flat. The model’s overall prediction missed the mark on the outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BKMA win✗ Miss
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar win✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.73
1.44
1.44
1.36
2.07
vs Stronger (21)
1.38
1.95
1.45
1.55
1.30
2.40
vs Similar (9)
1.44
1.22
1.40
1.20
1.50
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
2.47
0.57
2.64
0.44
2.31
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
3.40
0.20
3.60
0.20
3.20
vs Similar (14)
0.50
2.00
0.40
1.80
0.56
2.11
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
2.00
1.25
2.50
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
Under 2.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-0
11.4%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.7%
0-0 ✓
8.2%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
BKMA goals ↓
Gandzasar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
5.1%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.9%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.5%
5.7%
2.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.5%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BKMA goals (down), columns = Gandzasar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
BKMA is 0.07 points better than Gandzasar in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 0.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
BKMA is 0.37 goals better than Gandzasar in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
BKMA is 0.04 goals worse than Gandzasar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.62
0.75
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (21)
0.52
1.05
0.64
0.91
0.40
1.20
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.56
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.00
0.29
1.00
0.31
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.40
0.20
1.40
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.71
0.40
0.60
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.81
0.69
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (21)
0.86
0.90
0.82
0.64
0.90
1.20
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Gandzasar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gandzasar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.47
0.29
1.64
0.12
1.31
vs Stronger (10)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.20
0.00
1.80
vs Similar (14)
0.07
1.29
0.00
1.20
0.11
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gandzasar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
BKMA and Gandzasar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →