Bnei Sakhnin vs Beitar Jerusalem Result & Analysis

The contest between Bnei Sakhnin and Beitar Jerusalem is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 33% for a home victory, 29% for a draw and 38% for the visitors, making the latter the most likely outcome. On average the match should see 2.5 goals, with the most probable total being two goals, a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14% probability. Bnei Sakhnin, playing at home against a stronger opponent, has been scoring only 0.6 goals per game while conceding 0.8. Beitar Jerusalem, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 91.9%, Over 3.5 cards at 81.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 75.3%, Under 3.5 at 74.9%, Over 1.5 at 73.4%, Under 25.5 fouls at 71.8% and Under 11.5 corners at 71.6%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are noted where provided.

The upset came early, with Bnei Sakhnin snatching a 4-3 victory at home, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that had a 38% probability. The final score of 4-3 confirmed a home win, a result the model had not predicted. The model’s selection of an away win was therefore incorrect. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 2.5 cards hit at 91.9%, Over 1.5 hit at 73.4%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 71.6%. Over 3.5 cards missed at 81.2%, and Under 3.5 missed at 74.9%. The match ended with a surprisingly high number of goals, far above the expected 2.5.