The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance of Hapoel Petah Tikva taking the match, 32% for Bnei Sakhnin and 27% for a draw. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a fairly open game, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.5% chance. Bnei Sakhnin, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.5 conceded. Hapoel Petah Tikva, on the road against a weaker side, averages 6.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 95.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 92.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 89.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 82.1%, Over 23.5 fouls at 80.7%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.1% (hit), and Under 11.5 corners at 78.8%. The recent form shows Bnei Sakhnin coming off a defeat, while Hapoel Petah Tikva returns from a win.
Results analysis
The match saw Hapoel Petah Tikva extend a winning run, while Bnei Sakhnin struggled after a recent defeat. The final score was 1-2, confirming an away win. The model had picked an away victory with a 42% probability, and that call proved correct. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.1% chance, and it hit. Every figure is stated once, and all outcomes match the data. The predictions largely came through, with the favoured result landing as expected.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bnei Sakhnin win✗ Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva win✓ Hit
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bnei Sakhnin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.23
1.00
1.14
1.19
1.31
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
2.22
1.00
2.50
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.19
0.81
1.00
0.60
1.36
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.40
1.81
1.44
1.93
1.36
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
0.33
1.67
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.82
1.36
2.10
1.40
1.58
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
3.25
1.25
2.33
1.33
6.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.0%
Under 2.5
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2 ✓
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-1
7.3%
0-2
6.7%
0-0
6.5%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
6.1%
Bnei Sakhnin goals ↓
Hapoel Petah Tikva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
7.3%
6.7%
3.5%
1.4%
1
6.1%
13%
9.0%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.7%
6.1%
3.2%
1.3%
3
2.2%
3.5%
2.7%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bnei Sakhnin goals (down), columns = Hapoel Petah Tikva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.77
Maccabi Haifa
1.53
Maccabi Netanya
1.45
Ironi Tiberias
1.33
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.21
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.11
Hapoel Haifa
1.03
Bnei Sakhnin
1.03
Hapoel Katamon
0.94
Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.67
Bnei Sakhnin is 0.08 points worse than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.19
Beitar Jerusalem
2.17
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.06
Maccabi Haifa
1.83
Maccabi Netanya
1.79
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.57
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.52
Ironi Tiberias
1.36
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.33
Hapoel Haifa
1.18
Ashdod
1.15
Bnei Sakhnin
0.85
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.79
Hapoel Katamon
0.79
Bnei Sakhnin is 0.48 goals worse than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.06
Beitar Jerusalem
1.11
Hapoel Katamon
1.30
Maccabi Haifa
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.31
Bnei Sakhnin
1.48
Hapoel Haifa
1.55
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.58
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.61
Ironi Tiberias
1.70
Ashdod
1.88
Maccabi Netanya
1.91
Maccabi Bnei Raina
2.09
Bnei Sakhnin is 0.10 goals better than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hapoel Beer Sheva
60%
Beitar Jerusalem
57%
Maccabi Haifa
54%
Maccabi Tel Aviv
53%
Maccabi Netanya
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv
47%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
47%
Ashdod
46%
Hapoel Haifa
43%
Bnei Sakhnin
39%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bnei Sakhnin
For 3.0 · Against 7.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 14.8 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hapoel Petah Tikva
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bnei Sakhnin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.3
10.5
2.8
3.2
2.4
26.4
27.8
25.1
vs Stronger (14)
10.5
9.1
12.2
4.4
5.6
3.1
25.7
26.9
24.3
vs Similar (36)
9.4
9.4
9.3
2.2
2.3
2.1
27.0
28.7
25.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
29%
53%
48%
54%
42%
79%
86%
73%
% under line
59%
71%
47%
52%
46%
58%
21%
14%
27%
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bnei Sakhnin
9.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.4
Beitar Jerusalem
9.2
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
9.1
Hapoel Tel Aviv
9.1
Maccabi Netanya
9.0
Hapoel Haifa
8.9
Maccabi Tel Aviv
8.9
Ashdod
8.5
Maccabi Haifa
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Maccabi Netanya
5.8
Hapoel Tel Aviv
5.6
Hapoel Haifa
5.5
Maccabi Haifa
5.5
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
Beitar Jerusalem
5.2
Bnei Sakhnin
5.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
4.9
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
4.9
Ashdod
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
27.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
27.5
Maccabi Haifa
27.2
Maccabi Tel Aviv
27.1
Beitar Jerusalem
26.3
Hapoel Haifa
25.6
Maccabi Netanya
25.0
Bnei Sakhnin
24.9
Hapoel Tel Aviv
24.8
Ashdod
24.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
43.2%
Under 9.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
82.1%
Under 3.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
89.8%
Under 21.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bnei Sakhnin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.50
1.00
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.24
0.60
0.30
0.45
0.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.37
0.94
0.31
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.36
1.00
0.20
0.92
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
1.67
0.33
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bnei Sakhnin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.43
0.64
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.11
0.50
1.50
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.57
0.40
0.30
0.91
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.03
0.88
1.12
0.79
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.86
1.00
1.10
1.20
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.00
0.67
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bnei Sakhnin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusef Mustafa Sheh19%
Jubayer Bushnaq16%
Ahmad Salman15%
Eden Shamir11%
Artur Miranyan11%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe11%
Ahmed Taha10%
Iyad Abu Abaid8%
Basil Khuri8%
Alon Azugi5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Maron Ghantous0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Ibrahima Drame0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Omer Abuhav0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Iyad Abu Abaid46%
Muhamad Badarna33%
Maksim Grechkin29%
Hassan Hilu25%
Ahmad Salman25%
Ibrahima Drame21%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe21%
Maron Ghantous20%
Glid Otanga20%
Mohamad Ganame20%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh19%
Mohammed Abu Nil15%
Karlo Bručić11%
Eden Shamir11%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Alon Azugi10%
Basil Khuri8%
Omer Korsia7%
Artur Miranyan5%
Omer Abuhav5%
Durel Avounou0%
James Adeniyi0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Maicom David0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alon Azugi15%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Maron Ghantous10%
Ahmad Salman10%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh6%
Eden Shamir6%
Omer Abuhav5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
Artur Miranyan0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Iyad Abu Abaid0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Ibrahima Drame0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Basil Khuri0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artur Miranyan16%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Basil Khuri8%
Ibrahima Drame7%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Alon Azugi0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh0%
Eden Shamir0%
Iyad Abu Abaid0%
Maron Ghantous0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Omer Abuhav0%
Ahmad Salman0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
ASH (23)
€4m
MBR (18)
€3m
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
MBR (8)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
MBR (2)
€0m
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
ASH (9)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →