The match between Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva is a tight affair, with the model favouring an away win at 37 %. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly active game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.4 % chance. Bnei Sakhnin, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, while Hapoel Petah Tikva, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The probabilities for the match result are 35 % home win, 28 % draw, and 37 % away win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8 %), Under 5.5 (94.2 %), Under 4.5 (86.0 %), Home under 2.5 goals (84.9 %) and Away +2 handicap (83.9 %). All figures are presented as percentages, and each selection is listed with its probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Hapoel Petah Tikva, was expected to win with a 37 % chance, but the match ended 1-0 to Bnei Sakhnin, so the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-0 produced a home win, extending Bnei Sakhnin’s recent form after a draw. The model had predicted a 26 % chance of the most likely total of 2 goals, yet the game saw only one. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.3 %), Under 6.5 (97.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8 %), Under 5.5 (94.2 %), Under 4.5 (86.0 %), Home under 2.5 goals (84.9 %) and Away +2 handicap (83.9 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bnei Sakhnin win✓ Hit
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bnei Sakhnin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.53
0.93
1.47
0.53
1.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
2.20
0.80
2.20
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (20)
0.75
1.20
1.00
1.10
0.50
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.53
1.20
1.20
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (11)
1.00
1.82
1.20
1.80
0.83
1.83
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.41
0.89
0.89
1.25
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.1%
Under 2.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.1%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
7.8%
1-0 ✓
7.6%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
5.9%
Bnei Sakhnin goals ↓
Hapoel Petah Tikva goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
7.9%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
1
7.6%
13%
8.4%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.9%
8.1%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.6%
3.6%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bnei Sakhnin goals (down), columns = Hapoel Petah Tikva goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3.00
Hapoel Tel Aviv
2.00
Maccabi Netanya
2.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.80
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.32
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.20
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.16
Bnei Sakhnin
1.00
Ironi Tiberias
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Bnei Sakhnin is 0.20 points worse than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Beitar Jerusalem
3.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.00
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.80
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67
Maccabi Netanya
1.60
Hapoel Katamon
1.60
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.26
Hapoel Haifa
1.20
Ironi Tiberias
1.20
Bnei Sakhnin
1.20
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.11
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
0.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.00
Maccabi Haifa
0.00
Bnei Sakhnin is 0.60 goals worse than Hapoel Petah Tikva in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beitar Jerusalem
0.33
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.00
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.00
Hapoel Katamon
1.20
Maccabi Netanya
1.40
Ironi Tiberias
1.40
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.56
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.60
Bnei Sakhnin
1.60
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.77
Hapoel Haifa
1.80
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.00
Maccabi Haifa
2.00
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bnei Sakhnin or Draw✓ Hit
62.9%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers Bnei Sakhnin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin or Hapoel Petah Tikva✓ Hit
71.9%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers Bnei Sakhnin + Hapoel Petah Tikva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva✗ Miss
65.2%
Avg Implied -
35%
28%
37%
covers Draw + Hapoel Petah Tikva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.3%
Under
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.3%
Under
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bnei Sakhnin, so a minus line means Bnei Sakhnin give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Petah Tikva receive them. At -1, Bnei Sakhnin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bnei Sakhnin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.47
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.41
0.11
0.22
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bnei Sakhnin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.30
0.60
1.60
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.65
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Petah Tikva) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.82
0.80
0.80
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.65
1.00
0.78
0.67
0.50
1.38
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Sakhnin) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Sakhnin over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Petah Tikva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bnei Sakhnin · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusef Mustafa Sheh19%
Jubayer Bushnaq16%
Ahmad Salman15%
Eden Shamir11%
Artur Miranyan11%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe11%
Ahmed Taha10%
Iyad Abu Abaid8%
Basil Khuri8%
Alon Azugi5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Maron Ghantous0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Ibrahima Drame0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Omer Abuhav0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Iyad Abu Abaid46%
Muhamad Badarna33%
Maksim Grechkin29%
Hassan Hilu25%
Ahmad Salman25%
Ibrahima Drame21%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe21%
Maron Ghantous20%
Glid Otanga20%
Mohamad Ganame20%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh19%
Mohammed Abu Nil15%
Karlo Bručić11%
Eden Shamir11%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Alon Azugi10%
Basil Khuri8%
Omer Korsia7%
Artur Miranyan5%
Omer Abuhav5%
Durel Avounou0%
James Adeniyi0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Maicom David0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alon Azugi15%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Maron Ghantous10%
Ahmad Salman10%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh6%
Eden Shamir6%
Omer Abuhav5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
Artur Miranyan0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Iyad Abu Abaid0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Ibrahima Drame0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Basil Khuri0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artur Miranyan16%
Jubayer Bushnaq11%
Basil Khuri8%
Ibrahima Drame7%
Mathew Anim Cudjoe5%
Durel Avounou0%
Karlo Bručić0%
James Adeniyi0%
Muhamad Badarna0%
Alon Azugi0%
Maksim Grechkin0%
Yusef Mustafa Sheh0%
Eden Shamir0%
Iyad Abu Abaid0%
Maron Ghantous0%
Hassan Hilu0%
Johan N'Zi0%
Stav Nachmani0%
Mohammed Abu Nil0%
Omer Korsia0%
Glid Otanga0%
Omer Abuhav0%
Ahmad Salman0%
Ahmed Taha0%
Maicom David0%
Mohamad Ganame0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (29)
€35m
MH (33)
€27m
HBS (26)
€20m
HTA (27)
€18m
BJ (28)
€17m
MN (24)
€11m
IKS (22)
€7m
MPT (25)
€6m
HK (21)
€6m
HPT (22)
€6m
HRG (26)
€5m
BS (20)
€5m
IT (24)
€5m
HH (18)
€4m
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (12)
€13m
HTA (13)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
BJ (11)
€9m
MH (11)
€7m
MN (5)
€3m
MPT (11)
€3m
IKS (8)
€3m
IT (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (6)
€2m
BS (6)
€2m
HH (6)
€1m
HK (5)
€1m
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MH (9)
€10m
MTA (6)
€9m
HBS (3)
€5m
MN (8)
€3m
BJ (5)
€3m
HTA (4)
€2m
HK (5)
€1m
HPT (5)
€1m
IKS (3)
€1m
BS (6)
€1m
HRG (6)
€1m
MPT (4)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
HH (3)
€1m
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MTA (11)
€13m
MH (13)
€10m
BJ (12)
€5m
MN (11)
€5m
HBS (10)
€5m
HTA (10)
€5m
HK (11)
€3m
IKS (11)
€2m
HH (9)
€2m
HRG (10)
€2m
HPT (11)
€2m
BS (8)
€2m
MPT (10)
€2m
IT (10)
€2m
Bnei Sakhnin and Hapoel Petah Tikva have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Israel: Ligat Ha'al 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Ligat Ha'al stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Ironi Tiberias
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Beitar Jerusalem
Hapoel Katamon