PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated matchup between Bnei Sakhnin and Ironi Kiryat Shmona in the Israel: Ligat Ha'al is shaping up to be a closely contested affair. Bnei Sakhnin's recent form has been particularly concerning, with four consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Hapoel Haifa. However, they have a decent home record, averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.88 conceded against similar opponents.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona, on the other hand, has shown resilience in their away form, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opponents. Given these factors, it's no surprise that the model predicts a home win, with a 40% chance of success. The model's favored match result is a home win, with a 40% probability, closely followed by a draw at 30% and an away win at 30%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 14.1%. The model suggests an Under 3.5 goals outcome at 76.7%, which is likely to be a hit, and an Over 1.5 goals outcome at 71.6%.
The upset was stark: Bnei Sakhnin failed to deliver on the pre-match favourite, the model had called a home win with a 40 % probability, but Ironi Kiryat Shmona secured a 0-4 victory. The model’s call was wrong. The final score of 0-4 confirmed the away win. The model had also predicted a 2-goal total, the most likely score being 1-1, 1-0 or 0-0, but the match produced eight goals. The suggested picks varied: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 95.8 %, Over 2.5 cards hit at 92.1 %, Over 21.5 fouls missed at 90.4 %, Under 11.5 corners hit at 86.0 %, Over 23.5 fouls missed at 81.6 %, Over 3.5 cards hit at 81.6 %, Under 10.5 corners hit at 77.8 %, and Under 3.5 missed at 76.7 %. The home side had been coming off a draw, while the away side had just finished a win streak after two defeats.
Bnei Sakhnin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.73 | 2.18 | 0.80 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.00 | 0.84 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 0.89 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Ironi Kiryat Shmona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.36 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.54 | 1.38 | 1.69 | 1.15 | 1.36 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Ironi Kiryat Shmona goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Bnei SakhninIroni Kiryat ShmonaBnei Sakhnin| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 25.9 | 28.2 | 23.9 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 10.6 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 27.4 | 23.4 |
| vs Similar (36) | 8.6 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 26.6 | 28.9 | 24.3 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 38% | 25% | 50% | 40% | 48% | 32% | 69% | 83% | 57% |
| % under line | 62% | 75% | 50% | 60% | 52% | 68% | 31% | 17% | 43% |
Ironi Kiryat Shmona| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.1 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 27.9 | 26.8 | 29.2 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 8.6 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 28.9 | 26.8 | 31.7 |
| vs Similar (43) | 8.0 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 27.6 | 26.8 | 28.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 21% | 27% | 15% | 40% | 32% | 48% | 89% | 80% | 100% |
| % under line | 79% | 73% | 85% | 60% | 68% | 52% | 11% | 20% | 0% |
Bnei Sakhnin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.70 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.36 | 1.09 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Ironi Kiryat Shmona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.90 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.55 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Bnei Sakhnin| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.36 | 1.09 | 0.60 | 1.40 | 0.17 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.56 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Ironi Kiryat Shmona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 0.56 | 0.71 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.92 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.82 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 95.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 92.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 90.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 3.5 cards | 81.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 76.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 71.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/08/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 03/05/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/02/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 26/10/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/08/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 02/04/23 | A | 2-2 |
Bnei Sakhnin| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 15/02/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 07/02/26 | H | 1-2 |
Ironi Kiryat Shmona| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 29/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 36 | 79 | 67% | 2.2 | 79 | 38 | +41 | 3.2 | 78% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 58% | 5.8 | 88% | 28.7 | 92% | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 60% |
| 2 |  Beitar Jerusalem | 36 | 76 | 61% | 2.1 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.3 | 78% | 64% | 39% | 8.8 | 42% | 6.0 | 85% | 29.1 | 88% | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 57% |
| 3 |  Maccabi Tel Aviv | 35 | 63 | 51% | 1.8 | 72 | 46 | +26 | 3.4 | 83% | 69% | 54% | 9.4 | 44% | 5.6 | 96% | 30.3 | 100% | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 4 |  Hapoel Tel Aviv | 35 | 62 | 51% | 1.8 | 55 | 35 | +20 | 2.6 | 71% | 43% | 29% | 8.5 | 36% | 6.1 | 80% | 29.9 | 92% | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 47% |
| 5 |  Maccabi Haifa | 36 | 55 | 42% | 1.5 | 66 | 47 | +19 | 3.1 | 81% | 61% | 44% | 8.7 | 38% | 5.1 | 80% | 26.7 | 81% | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 6 |  Maccabi Netanya | 33 | 48 | 42% | 1.5 | 59 | 63 | -4 | 3.7 | 91% | 67% | 45% | 9.0 | 27% | 6.4 | 91% | 26.0 | 77% | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 50% |
| 7 |  Ironi Tiberias | 33 | 44 | 36% | 1.3 | 45 | 56 | -11 | 3.1 | 85% | 45% | 36% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 33 | 40 | 33% | 1.2 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 3.1 | 82% | 64% | 45% | 8.3 | 32% | 5.0 | 73% | 27.3 | 82% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 9 |  Hapoel Petah Tikva | 36 | 40 | 25% | 1.1 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 2.9 | 75% | 56% | 44% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 |  Hapoel Haifa | 33 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 2.7 | 73% | 42% | 30% | 9.8 | 45% | 5.5 | 91% | 27.0 | 82% | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 43% |
| 11 | Bnei Sakhnin | 33 | 34 | 24% | 1.0 | 28 | 49 | -21 | 2.3 | 76% | 45% | 18% | 9.3 | 36% | 4.7 | 77% | 25.2 | 64% | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 39% |
| 12 |  Hapoel Katamon | 33 | 31 | 21% | 0.9 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 2.1 | 61% | 39% | 18% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | - |
| 13 |  Ashdod | 33 | 28 | 18% | 0.8 | 38 | 62 | -24 | 3.0 | 82% | 58% | 33% | 8.7 | 32% | 5.6 | 77% | 27.8 | 86% | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 46% |
| 14 |  Maccabi Bnei Raina | 33 | 22 | 18% | 0.7 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 2.9 | 76% | 58% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | - |