Bnei Yehuda are tipped to lift the win, with a 44% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of a Hapoel Rishon LeZion win. The model expects a modest 2.6 goals in total, most likely settling on a 2-goal game at 26% probability, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.4% chance. Bnei Yehuda, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, while Hapoel Rishon LeZion, on the road, average 1.27 scored and 1.60 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.1%, Under 5.5 at 94.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 89.1%, Home +2 handicap at 88.5%, and Under 4.5 at 87.1%. Bnei Yehuda’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while Hapoel Rishon LeZion returns from a solitary win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bnei Yehuda win
42.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion win
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bnei Yehuda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.87
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.73
1.08
1.50
1.17
1.93
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.53
1.60
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.37
1.60
1.53
1.60
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.2%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.3%
Bnei Yehuda goals ↓
Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
7.0%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.2%
13%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.0%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.8%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bnei Yehuda goals (down), columns = Hapoel Rishon LeZion goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Bnei Yehuda is 0.22 points better than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Bnei Yehuda is 0.11 goals worse than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Bnei Yehuda is 0.27 goals better than Hapoel Rishon LeZion in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.46).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bnei Yehuda or Draw
71.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Bnei Yehuda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
71.8%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Bnei Yehuda + Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hapoel Rishon LeZion
57.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5
Over
43.5%
Under
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 3.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bnei Yehuda, so a minus line means Bnei Yehuda give that many goals of a start and Hapoel Rishon LeZion receive them. At -1, Bnei Yehuda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bnei Yehuda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bnei Yehuda)
Bnei Yehuda -2
8.4%
Draw -2
13.2%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion +2
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bnei Yehuda)
Bnei Yehuda -1
21.6%
Draw -1
21.2%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion +1
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bnei Yehuda)
Bnei Yehuda +1
71.0%
Draw +1
16.7%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bnei Yehuda)
Bnei Yehuda +2
87.7%
Draw +2
8.4%
Hapoel Rishon LeZion -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bnei Yehuda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.60
0.47
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.50
0.58
0.58
0.79
0.43
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.8%
Under 0.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.0%
Under 1.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.0%
Under 2.5
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bnei Yehuda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.73
0.53
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.58
0.92
0.58
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Hapoel Rishon LeZion) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.93
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
Under 0.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.1%
Under 1.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.5%
Under
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (23)
€4m
BY (26)
€3m
MBR (18)
€3m
HRL (19)
€3m
KYS (24)
€3m
MH (22)
€2m
HR (18)
€2m
HA (23)
€2m
KQ (26)
€2m
HKS (22)
€2m
HKS (14)
€2m
IM (21)
€1m
MKJ (18)
€1m
HA (11)
€1m
Bnei Yehuda and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MBR (8)
€2m
HRL (8)
€1m
KYS (10)
€1m
ASH (8)
€1m
BY (9)
€1m
MH (8)
€1m
HKS (7)
€1m
HR (6)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
MKJ (11)
€0m
IM (7)
€0m
KQ (9)
€0m
HKS (4)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
Bnei Yehuda and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BY (5)
€1m
ASH (6)
€1m
KQ (8)
€1m
MH (4)
€0m
HRL (5)
€0m
HKS (7)
€0m
HR (4)
€0m
KYS (6)
€0m
IM (6)
€0m
MBR (2)
€0m
HA (4)
€0m
MKJ (3)
€0m
HKS (2)
€0m
HA (0)
€0m
Bnei Yehuda and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ASH (9)
€1m
BY (12)
€1m
MBR (8)
€1m
HR (8)
€1m
HKS (11)
€1m
HRL (6)
€1m
HA (10)
€1m
MH (10)
€1m
HA (9)
€1m
KQ (9)
€1m
KYS (8)
€1m
HKS (5)
€0m
MKJ (4)
€0m
IM (8)
€0m
Bnei Yehuda and Hapoel Rishon LeZion have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →