The contest between Bnei Yehuda and Maccabi Kiryat Gat is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win at 36% versus 34% for the visitors and 30% for a draw. The expected goal count sits at 2.4, and the most likely total of 2 goals carries a 27% chance. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 14.3% likelihood. Bnei Yehuda, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.17 conceded, while Maccabi Kiryat Gat, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 5.5 (96.2%), Under 4.5 (90.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.1%), and Home under 2.5 goals (87.2%). The recent form shows Bnei Yehuda on a two-game winning streak, while Maccabi Kiryat Gat has just drawn, adding another layer of uncertainty to this balanced match.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bnei Yehuda win
36.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat win
34.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bnei Yehuda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.97
1.33
1.00
1.87
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.73
1.08
1.50
1.17
1.93
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kiryat Gat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.1%
Under 1.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.8%
Under 3.5
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-0
10.1%
1-0
9.6%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.3%
Bnei Yehuda goals ↓
Maccabi Kiryat Gat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.2%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
1
9.6%
14%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.7%
8.0%
4.8%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.8%
3.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bnei Yehuda goals (down), columns = Maccabi Kiryat Gat goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maccabi Herzliya
1.68
Ashdod
1.64
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.58
Bnei Yehuda
1.54
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.51
Kiryat Yam SC
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.38
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.34
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.34
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.32
Hapoel Afula
1.22
Kafr Qasim
1.11
Ironi Modi'in
1.08
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Bnei Yehuda is 0.20 points better than Maccabi Kiryat Gat in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.81
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.78
Ashdod
1.66
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.60
Maccabi Herzliya
1.49
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.41
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.35
Kiryat Yam SC
1.30
Bnei Yehuda
1.24
Kafr Qasim
1.14
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.14
Hapoel Acre
1.08
Hapoel Afula
1.05
Ironi Modi'in
1.00
Bnei Yehuda is 0.11 goals worse than Maccabi Kiryat Gat in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ashdod
1.11
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.16
Kiryat Yam SC
1.16
Bnei Yehuda
1.19
Maccabi Herzliya
1.19
Hapoel Ra'anana
1.19
Ironi Modi'in
1.27
Hapoel Acre
1.30
Kafr Qasim
1.32
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
1.36
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.36
Hapoel Rishon LeZion
1.46
Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa
1.57
Hapoel Afula
1.57
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.70
Bnei Yehuda is 0.17 goals better than Maccabi Kiryat Gat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bnei Yehuda or Draw
66.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
34%
covers Bnei Yehuda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda or Maccabi Kiryat Gat
70.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
34%
covers Bnei Yehuda + Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Gat
64.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
30%
34%
covers Draw + Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 0.5
Over
69.7%
Under
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 1.5
Over
33.6%
Under
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 2.5
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 3.5
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bnei Yehuda, so a minus line means Bnei Yehuda give that many goals of a start and Maccabi Kiryat Gat receive them. At -1, Bnei Yehuda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bnei Yehuda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bnei Yehuda)
Bnei Yehuda -2
5.4%
Draw -2
10.7%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat +2
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bnei Yehuda)
Bnei Yehuda -1
16.1%
Draw -1
19.8%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat +1
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bnei Yehuda)
Bnei Yehuda +1
66.0%
Draw +1
19.1%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat -1
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bnei Yehuda)
Bnei Yehuda +2
85.1%
Draw +2
10.0%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat -2
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bnei Yehuda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.60
0.47
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.50
0.58
0.58
0.79
0.43
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kiryat Gat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bnei Yehuda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.73
0.53
1.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.04
0.58
0.92
0.58
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Maccabi Kiryat Gat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bnei Yehuda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bnei Yehuda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maccabi Kiryat Gat over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Israel: Liga Leumit 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Israel: Liga Leumit stats & trends →