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Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 16/05/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 3-0
Bokelj
Bokelj
Vs
33%
28%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bokelj win✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
39.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

BokeljBokelj

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L20W00D01L10W02L11D23L00DH·MOR11/03A·ARS15/03H·BUD21/03A·DEČ04/04H·PET08/04A·MLA12/04H·JEZ18/04A·JED26/04H·SUT02/05A·MOR10/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.331.271.670.671.00
vs Stronger (3)1.000.671.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.961.411.311.770.641.07
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L10W01L21W20W01L20W31W00D11DA·SUT11/03H·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03A·MLA04/04A·JED08/04H·MOR12/04A·BUD18/04H·PET26/04A·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.201.000.870.871.53
vs Stronger (7)1.001.570.670.331.252.50
vs Similar (23)0.911.091.081.000.731.18
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.7%
Under 1.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.7%
Under 2.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.8%
Under 3.5
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-2
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
0-0
8.2%
2-1
7.8%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
5.5%
Bokelj goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
08.2%8.5%6.8%3.2%1.1%
17.6%14%8.6%4.0%1.4%
25.5%7.8%5.4%2.5%0.9%
32.3%3.3%2.3%1.1%0.4%
40.7%1.0%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bokelj goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Bokelj is 0.23 points worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Bokelj is 0.05 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Bokelj is 0.01 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

BokeljBokelj

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D00D00D10W02L00D11D00DH·MOR11/03A·ARS15/03H·BUD21/03A·DEČ04/04H·PET08/04A·MLA12/04H·JEZ18/04A·JED26/04H·SUT02/05A·MOR10/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.630.470.600.200.67
vs Stronger (3)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.370.700.540.690.210.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W01L00D10W00D10W10W00D00DA·SUT11/03H·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03A·MLA04/04A·JED08/04H·MOR12/04A·BUD18/04H·PET26/04A·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.430.600.330.330.53
vs Stronger (7)0.290.290.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.520.480.750.420.270.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

BokeljBokelj

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D20W00D01L00D00D11D12L00DH·MOR11/03A·ARS15/03H·BUD21/03A·DEČ04/04H·PET08/04A·MLA12/04H·JEZ18/04A·JED26/04H·SUT02/05A·MOR10/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.801.070.470.33
vs Stronger (3)1.000.671.001.001.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.590.700.771.080.430.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L00D00D21W10W01L10W21W00D11DA·SUT11/03H·BOK15/03H·DEČ21/03A·MLA04/04A·JED08/04H·MOR12/04A·BUD18/04H·PET26/04A·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.400.530.531.00
vs Stronger (7)0.711.290.670.330.752.00
vs Similar (23)0.390.610.330.580.450.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Bokelj and Arsenal Tivat have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Bokelj and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Bokelj and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Bokelj and Arsenal Tivat have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
BOK wins
2
Draws
4
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from BOK
DateH/AGameScore
15/03/26AArsenal Tivat Vs BOK1-0
22/11/25HBOK Vs Arsenal Tivat2-0
17/09/25AArsenal Tivat Vs BOK2-1
10/05/25HBOK Vs Arsenal Tivat1-1
12/03/25AArsenal Tivat Vs BOK1-0
02/11/24HBOK Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
31/08/24AArsenal Tivat Vs BOK1-1

BokeljBokelj

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/26AMornar Vs BOK0-0
02/05/26HBOK Vs Sutjeska2-3
26/04/26AJedinstvo Vs BOK1-1
18/04/26HBOK Vs Jezero0-2
12/04/26AMladost DG Vs BOK0-1
08/04/26HBOK Vs Petrovac0-1
04/04/26ADečić Vs BOK0-0
21/03/26HBOK Vs Buducnost Podgorica2-0
15/03/26AArsenal Tivat Vs BOK1-0
11/03/26HBOK Vs Mornar1-2

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26HAT Vs Sutjeska1-1
02/05/26AJezero Vs AT0-0
26/04/26HAT Vs Petrovac3-1
18/04/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT0-2
12/04/26HAT Vs Mornar0-1
08/04/26AJedinstvo Vs AT0-2
04/04/26AMladost DG Vs AT1-2
21/03/26HAT Vs Dečić0-1
15/03/26HAT Vs Bokelj1-0
11/03/26ASutjeska Vs AT4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bokelj
Bokelj
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLD0.88
HomeLWLLL0.62
AwayLDWDD1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%12%27%
AVG goals2.403.001.85
Over 1.5 %66%88%46%
Over 2.5 %38%50%27%
Over 3.5 %22%29%15%
Scored0.881.040.73
Conceded1.521.961.12
BTTS42%54%31%
Clean Sheet32%17%46%
Corners---
Cards---
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDD1.26
HomeWLLWD1.68
AwayLWWWD0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals2.141.882.40
Over 1.5 %62%52%72%
Over 2.5 %32%32%32%
Over 3.5 %20%16%24%
Scored0.941.160.72
Conceded1.200.721.68
BTTS38%44%32%
Clean Sheet36%44%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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