Bolton is expected to narrowly edge out Luton in this League One match. Luton's recent form, having won three consecutive matches, may be a storyline worth watching. Bolton's home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 31%. The model's selection is a home win, with 43% probability. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, but the most likely total number of goals is 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.2%. Bolton has averaged 2.33 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded at home, while Luton has averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded away from home.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.4% probability, as its selection. The model's selection, Home Win, is 43% likely, while the Away Win is 31% likely. The Draw is 26% likely.
Results analysis
The away team, Luton, pulled off a stunning upset, securing a 2-3 win on the road. This result extends their 3-game winning run, with a notable 3-2 victory over Bolton in their previous encounter. The pre-match favourite was the home team, Bolton, with a 43% probability of winning, but the model's selection was incorrect. The model had picked a home win, which ultimately did not materialise. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 81.4% probability of occurrence.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bolton win✗ Miss
43.3%
Avg Implied 41.7% · @ 2.23
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.2%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.02
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Luton win✓ Hit
30.6%
Avg Implied 35.1% · @ 2.65
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bolton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.27
2.00
1.31
1.12
1.24
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.64
1.64
2.40
2.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.42
1.05
1.75
0.88
1.18
1.18
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Luton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.20
2.00
1.12
1.21
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.60
1.25
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.62
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
1.10
2.00
1.50
1.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.0%
@ 1.36-10.2%
Under 2.5
42.0%
@ 2.92+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.5%
1-0
7.0%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.6%
Bolton goals ↓
Luton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
5.6%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.0%
12%
7.5%
3.4%
1.2%
2
6.7%
9.1%
6.2%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.7%
5.0%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.1%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bolton goals (down), columns = Luton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln
2.24
Cardiff
1.98
Bolton
1.71
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Stevenage
1.56
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Burton
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Exeter
1.07
Port Vale
0.91
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.76
Bolton is 0.11 points better than Luton in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cardiff
1.96
Lincoln
1.93
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Bolton
1.55
Stockport
1.53
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Exeter
1.13
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Stevenage
1.02
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.85
Port Vale
0.78
Bolton is 0.07 goals better than Luton in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln
0.89
Stevenage
1.02
Bolton
1.08
Mansfield
1.09
Cardiff
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Luton
1.22
Wigan
1.26
Wycombe
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Port Vale
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Doncaster
1.50
Leyton Orient
1.54
Rotherham
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Northampton
1.61
Bolton is 0.14 goals better than Luton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Cardiff
63%
Bolton
59%
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Exeter
51%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Port Vale
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Rotherham
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Northampton
45%
Lincoln
42%
Bolton is 3.1 percentage points better than Luton in terms of average possession (59% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bolton
For 6.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 12.9 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Luton
For 6.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 13.5 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bolton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.9
9.7
3.6
3.9
3.3
22.2
21.4
23.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
10.8
10.9
10.8
4.0
4.5
3.6
22.7
23.0
22.4
vs Weaker (29)
9.9
10.9
8.9
3.3
3.5
3.1
21.9
20.3
23.5
% over line
58%
67%
50%
48%
60%
36%
58%
42%
75%
% under line
42%
33%
50%
52%
40%
64%
42%
58%
25%
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Luton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.7
9.4
3.6
3.6
3.7
23.7
23.6
23.8
vs Stronger (2)
15.0
20.0
10.0
5.0
9.0
1.0
21.0
25.0
17.0
vs Similar (32)
10.7
12.4
9.0
3.8
3.3
4.2
24.3
24.3
24.4
vs Weaker (16)
9.8
9.4
10.3
3.2
3.5
3.0
22.7
22.0
23.6
% over line
59%
64%
54%
52%
40%
64%
61%
60%
62%
% under line
41%
36%
46%
48%
60%
36%
39%
40%
38%
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.3
Port Vale
10.6
Barnsley
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Burton
10.5
Cardiff
10.4
Peterboro
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Blackpool
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Northampton
9.9
Doncaster
9.8
Bradford
9.8
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Mansfield
9.6
Rotherham
9.5
Reading
9.2
Lincoln
9.2
Stevenage
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Bradford
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Rotherham
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Bolton
3.8
Stevenage
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Burton
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Reading
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
Stockport
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Wigan
3.2
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.9
Huddersfield
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Plymouth
24.1
Rotherham
24.0
Peterboro
23.9
Blackpool
23.7
Luton
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Doncaster
23.1
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Leyton Orient
22.9
Lincoln
22.8
Reading
22.5
Bolton
22.5
Mansfield
22.4
Northampton
22.2
Burton
22.0
Exeter
21.8
Wycombe
21.6
Port Vale
21.6
Stockport
21.4
Barnsley
21.0
Cardiff
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.0%
Under 9.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.7%
Under 3.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
50.7%
Under 21.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bolton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.62
0.38
0.29
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.55
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.47
0.42
0.75
0.25
0.27
0.55
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Luton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.19
0.50
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.60
1.08
0.42
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.40
1.50
0.75
0.83
0.17
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bolton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bolton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bolton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bolton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.38
0.92
0.82
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.27
1.09
2.00
1.40
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
0.95
0.63
1.00
0.62
0.91
0.64
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Luton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Luton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.81
0.62
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.65
0.92
0.58
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Bolton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bolton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bolton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bolton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Luton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (25)
€31m
LUT (28)
€29m
HUD (27)
€16m
BOL (24)
€14m
LO (28)
€13m
STO (27)
€13m
PLY (27)
€12m
BLA (23)
€12m
REA (26)
€11m
LIN (27)
€10m
WYC (25)
€10m
STE (25)
€9m
WIG (27)
€9m
PV (31)
€8m
ROT (28)
€8m
PET (26)
€8m
BUR (27)
€8m
BRA (23)
€7m
BAR (20)
€7m
DON (27)
€7m
MAN (27)
€6m
AW (23)
€5m
EXE (22)
€5m
NOR (23)
€4m
Bolton's squad is €15m less valuable than Luton's (€14m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUT (13)
€16m
CAR (10)
€13m
BOL (9)
€8m
STO (8)
€6m
LO (7)
€6m
HUD (9)
€5m
BLA (8)
€4m
LIN (9)
€4m
PLY (8)
€4m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WYC (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
AW (10)
€2m
REA (6)
€2m
MAN (9)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
DON (7)
€2m
EXE (7)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€1m
NOR (7)
€1m
Bolton's attack is €8m less valuable than Luton's (€8m vs €16m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (4)
€7m
LUT (7)
€5m
HUD (5)
€4m
REA (7)
€4m
LO (8)
€3m
BRA (6)
€3m
PLY (7)
€3m
ROT (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
LIN (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
BOL (4)
€2m
BLA (5)
€2m
DON (9)
€2m
PV (9)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
STO (5)
€2m
MAN (5)
€2m
PET (5)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
NOR (6)
€1m
EXE (6)
€1m
AW (6)
€1m
Bolton's midfield is €3m less valuable than Luton's (€2m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (11)
€12m
LUT (8)
€8m
HUD (13)
€7m
BLA (10)
€6m
PLY (12)
€6m
STO (14)
€5m
PV (15)
€5m
REA (13)
€5m
WYC (12)
€4m
BUR (13)
€4m
LO (13)
€4m
LIN (12)
€4m
BOL (11)
€4m
BAR (10)
€4m
STE (10)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
ROT (11)
€3m
PET (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€2m
MAN (13)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
EXE (9)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
Bolton's defence is €4m less valuable than Luton's (€4m vs €8m).
England: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Lincoln
Cardiff
Stockport
Bradford
Stevenage
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Port Vale
Rotherham
Northampton