PythiaFootballBETA
Pythia gives Bolton a 44% win probability against Stockport in the England: League One on 2026-05-24, with 26% for the draw and 29% for Stockport. The model estimates around 3.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (24%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (80%), Under 5.5 cards (77%), Over 2.5 cards (77%), Under 25.5 fouls (74%).
Bolton finished 4-1 against Stockport (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 44% home win, 26% draw and 29% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (80%).
Bolton| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.20 | 1.93 | 1.33 | 1.20 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 1.52 | 1.04 | 1.83 | 1.08 | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Stockport| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.23 | 2.00 | 1.13 | 1.27 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (1) | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 1.62 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 1.13 | 1.21 | 1.29 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Stockport goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 12% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
BoltonStockportBolton| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.4 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 22.5 | 22.0 | 23.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 12.4 | 12.2 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 21.1 | 23.2 | 19.0 |
| vs Weaker (42) | 10.0 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 22.8 | 21.7 | 23.9 |
| % over line | 58% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 64% | 36% | 60% | 46% | 75% |
| % under line | 42% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 36% | 64% | 40% | 54% | 25% |
Stockport| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 21.2 | 20.9 | 21.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 16.0 | 16.0 | 16.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 20.5 | 26.0 | 15.0 |
| vs Weaker (48) | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 21.3 | 20.7 | 21.8 |
| % over line | 52% | 50% | 54% | 50% | 44% | 56% | 48% | 46% | 50% |
| % under line | 48% | 50% | 46% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 52% | 54% | 50% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 77.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 cards | 77.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 74.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 8.5 corners | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/08/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 15/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 09/11/24 | A | 5-0 |
Bolton| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
Stockport| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 15/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Lincoln | 46 | 103 | 67% | 2.2 | 89 | 41 | +48 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 9.3 | 41% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.8 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 42% |
| 2 |  Cardiff | 46 | 91 | 59% | 2.0 | 90 | 50 | +40 | 3.0 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 10.5 | 61% | 3.5 | 52% | 20.6 | 30% | 31 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 63% |
| 3 | Bolton | 49 | 84 | 45% | 1.7 | 76 | 53 | +23 | 2.6 | 76% | 47% | 27% | 10.5 | 59% | 3.8 | 52% | 22.5 | 59% | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 4 | Stockport | 49 | 83 | 49% | 1.7 | 75 | 62 | +13 | 2.8 | 80% | 59% | 24% | 9.9 | 52% | 3.5 | 54% | 21.1 | 46% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 5 |  Bradford | 48 | 77 | 46% | 1.6 | 58 | 53 | +5 | 2.3 | 69% | 50% | 17% | 9.9 | 52% | 4.5 | 70% | 25.2 | 78% | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 6 |  Stevenage | 48 | 75 | 44% | 1.6 | 49 | 49 | +0 | 2.0 | 52% | 35% | 19% | 8.5 | 43% | 3.8 | 57% | 24.4 | 76% | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 45% |
| 7 |  Luton | 46 | 74 | 46% | 1.6 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 2.7 | 76% | 54% | 28% | 10.4 | 57% | 3.7 | 54% | 24.0 | 63% | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 8 |  Plymouth | 46 | 73 | 48% | 1.6 | 75 | 63 | +12 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 39% | 11.3 | 74% | 5.2 | 80% | 24.5 | 67% | 12 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 9 |  Huddersfield | 46 | 67 | 39% | 1.5 | 74 | 64 | +10 | 3.0 | 76% | 59% | 43% | 10.5 | 59% | 4.1 | 61% | 25.0 | 76% | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 10 |  Mansfield | 46 | 65 | 35% | 1.4 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 2.4 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 39% | 3.6 | 46% | 22.4 | 57% | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 46% |
| 11 |  Wycombe | 46 | 63 | 37% | 1.4 | 69 | 58 | +11 | 2.8 | 80% | 52% | 28% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.5 | 41% | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Reading | 46 | 63 | 35% | 1.4 | 64 | 60 | +4 | 2.7 | 83% | 48% | 26% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.6 | 50% | 22.4 | 57% | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 13 |  Blackpool | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 54 | 65 | -11 | 2.6 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 9.9 | 57% | 3.7 | 52% | 24.0 | 76% | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 14 |  Doncaster | 46 | 60 | 37% | 1.3 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 2.6 | 72% | 50% | 22% | 9.7 | 35% | 3.9 | 52% | 23.3 | 63% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 15 |  Barnsley | 46 | 59 | 33% | 1.3 | 68 | 73 | -5 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 46% | 10.9 | 57% | 3.5 | 50% | 21.0 | 43% | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 52% |
| 16 |  Wigan | 46 | 56 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 2.3 | 70% | 35% | 17% | 10.8 | 61% | 3.1 | 39% | 23.6 | 63% | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 17 |  Burton | 46 | 54 | 28% | 1.2 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 2.4 | 70% | 50% | 22% | 10.4 | 52% | 3.6 | 52% | 22.0 | 41% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 18 |  Peterboro | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 64 | 68 | -4 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 26% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 67% | 23.6 | 61% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 55% |
| 19 |  AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 53 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 72 | -21 | 2.7 | 67% | 50% | 30% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.2 | 46% | 23.2 | 65% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 20 |  Leyton Orient | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 33% | 9.6 | 52% | 4.1 | 61% | 23.0 | 65% | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 21 |  Exeter | 46 | 49 | 26% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.5 | 65% | 46% | 24% | 10.1 | 54% | 3.3 | 50% | 22.0 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 22 |  Port Vale | 46 | 42 | 22% | 0.9 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 2.1 | 54% | 39% | 22% | 10.2 | 59% | 3.6 | 52% | 21.3 | 48% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 23 |  Rotherham | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 41 | 71 | -30 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 24% | 9.8 | 52% | 4.2 | 65% | 23.9 | 65% | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 24 |  Northampton | 46 | 35 | 20% | 0.8 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 2.5 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.9 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 45% |