Borac Banja Luka are the clear favourites, their 78%home win probability reflecting a strong home form against weaker opposition, scoring 2.45 and conceding only 0.64 goals. Radnik Bijeljina, struggling away with 0.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against stronger teams, have only a 6% chance of victory. The model picks a home win and expects 2.8 goals, with the most likely score 2-0 at 16.3%. Borac’s recent three-game winning streak and a 3-1 win over Vikingur Reykjavik reinforce their advantage, while Radnik’s 2-straight-defeat slump and a 1-2 loss to Siroki Brijeg hint at defensive frailties. The suggested picks include an away under 3.5 goals at 99.8%, under 7.5 at 99.2%, home +2 handicap at 98.8%, away under 2.5 goals at 98.7%, under 6.5 at 97.7%, home or draw at 94.4%, home +1 handicap at 94.4%, and under 5.5 at 93.7%. The probabilities for the match outcome are 78%home win, 17% draw, and 6% away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Borac Banja Luka win
75.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina win
6.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Borac Banja Luka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.47
2.24
0.53
1.46
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.56
0.56
1.80
0.40
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
2.05
0.43
2.42
0.58
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.17
1.13
1.07
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.43
1.00
1.38
0.17
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.94
1.29
0.71
0.67
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
35.2%
No
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
16.4%
1-0
14.4%
3-0
11.8%
1-1
8.3%
2-1
8.1%
0-0
7.8%
4-0
6.4%
3-1
5.8%
Borac Banja Luka goals ↓
Radnik Bijeljina goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
2.7%
0.9%
0.1%
0.0%
1
14%
8.3%
1.9%
0.3%
0.0%
2
16%
8.1%
2.0%
0.3%
0.0%
3
12%
5.8%
1.4%
0.2%
0.0%
4
6.4%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Borac Banja Luka goals (down), columns = Radnik Bijeljina goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Borac Banja Luka is 1.42 points better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of average points per game (2.39 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Borac Banja Luka is 1.36 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Borac Banja Luka is 0.69 goals better than Radnik Bijeljina in terms of goals conceded per game (0.56 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Borac Banja Luka or Draw
93.6%
Avg Implied -
75%
18%
6%
covers Borac Banja Luka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka or Radnik Bijeljina
81.7%
Avg Implied -
75%
18%
6%
covers Borac Banja Luka + Radnik Bijeljina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Radnik Bijeljina
24.6%
Avg Implied -
75%
18%
6%
covers Draw + Radnik Bijeljina
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5
Over
88.5%
Under
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 3.5
Over
17.3%
Under
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Borac Banja Luka, so a minus line means Borac Banja Luka give that many goals of a start and Radnik Bijeljina receive them. At -1, Borac Banja Luka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Borac Banja Luka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Borac Banja Luka)
Borac Banja Luka -2
28.1%
Draw -2
23.1%
Radnik Bijeljina +2
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Borac Banja Luka)
Borac Banja Luka -1
51.2%
Draw -1
24.1%
Radnik Bijeljina +1
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Borac Banja Luka)
Borac Banja Luka +1
93.6%
Draw +1
4.9%
Radnik Bijeljina -1
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Borac Banja Luka)
Borac Banja Luka +2
98.6%
Draw +2
1.2%
Radnik Bijeljina -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Borac Banja Luka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.23
0.94
0.29
0.69
0.15
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.22
0.20
0.20
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (21)
1.00
0.24
1.25
0.33
0.67
0.11
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.50
0.60
0.47
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.50
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Borac Banja Luka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.23
1.29
0.24
0.77
0.23
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.33
1.60
0.20
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.19
1.17
0.25
0.89
0.11
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Radnik Bijeljina) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radnik Bijeljina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.20
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
0.93
0.25
0.88
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.86
0.29
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radnik Bijeljina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Borac Banja Luka · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
David Vuković25%
Dino Skorup20%
Đorđe Despotović20%
Sandi Ogrinec20%
Stefan Savić10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Zoran Kvržić0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Sebastian Herrera0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Enver Kulašin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enver Kulašin56%
Marko Vukčević40%
Sebastian Herrera33%
Bart Meijers30%
Zoran Kvržić25%
David Vuković25%
Boban Nikolov22%
Dino Skorup20%
Đorđe Despotović20%
Nikola Srećković17%
David Čavić12%
Filip Manojlović11%
Jurich Carolina10%
Sandi Ogrinec10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Stefan Savić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Vuković25%
Zoran Kvržić12%
Sebastian Herrera11%
Stefan Savić10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Dino Skorup0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Đorđe Despotović0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Sandi Ogrinec0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Enver Kulašin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Đorđe Despotović30%
Sebastian Herrera11%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Zoran Kvržić0%
Dino Skorup0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Stefan Savić0%
Sandi Ogrinec0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
David Vuković0%
Enver Kulašin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Borac Banja Luka's squad is €5m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€9m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Borac Banja Luka's attack is €2m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Borac Banja Luka and Radnik Bijeljina have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Borac Banja Luka's defence is €2m more valuable than Radnik Bijeljina's (€4m vs €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
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Zrinjski
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Čelik
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
BSK Banja Luka