Borac Banja Luka is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 62% probability of a home win. The model rates them highly due to Velež's struggles on the road, where they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded against stronger opponents.
The most likely match result is a home win, with a predicted total of 2.5 goals. The most likely score is 1-0, with a 13.2% probability. Borac Banja Luka has a strong home form, averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.58 conceded against weaker opponents. Velež, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, conceding an average of 1.75 goals against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 goals, with a 75% probability, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 73.1% probability. The home win percentage is 62%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 14%.
Results analysis
Borac Banja Luka's win extends their run to 4 consecutive victories, following a 3-1 triumph over Velež. The final score was indeed 3-1, confirming the actual result. The model correctly predicted a home win, which held a pre-match probability of 62%. The model's selection was correct, as Borac Banja Luka were the favourites. The model's suggested picks performed as follows: Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 73.1%, while Under 3.5 missed, with a probability of 75.0%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Borac Banja Luka win✓ Hit
61.8%
Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.32
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Dafabet
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.34
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.60
Dafabet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.57
Superbet
4.45
Betano
4.40
Velež win✗ Miss
13.7%
Avg Implied 11.2% · @ 8.06
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
8.80
Betfair
8.50
Dafabet
8.40
Pinnacle
8.19
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Borac Banja Luka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.50
2.07
0.53
1.40
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.62
1.50
0.25
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.95
0.45
2.27
0.64
1.64
0.27
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.77
1.50
0.62
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
1.17
1.17
1.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (18)
1.39
0.50
1.70
0.40
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
@ 1.24+0.4%
Under 1.5
26.9%
@ 3.30-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 1.82-3.9%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.85+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.0%
@ 2.96-5.6%
Under 3.5
75.0%
@ 1.30+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.00
1xBet
2.92
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.5%
@ 2.15+2.4%
No
55.5%
@ 1.57-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Unibet
2.17
No
10Bet
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.2%@ 5.39+5.6%
2-0
12.8%@ 5.29+5.1%
1-1
11.5%@ 7.92+6.4%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.57+4.0%
0-0
9.0%@ 8.69+4.3%
3-0
7.7%@ 7.50+2.3%
3-1 ✓
5.7%@ 10.55+1.8%
0-1
4.8%@ 16.00+2.2%
Borac Banja Luka goals ↓
Velež goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
4.8%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
3.9%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.4%
3.5%
0.8%
0.2%
3
7.7%
5.7%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.5%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Borac Banja Luka goals (down), columns = Velež goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Borac Banja Luka is 0.97 points better than Velež in terms of average points per game (2.39 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Borac Banja Luka is 1.11 goals better than Velež in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Borac Banja Luka is 0.42 goals better than Velež in terms of goals conceded per game (0.56 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Borac Banja Luka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.23
0.87
0.33
0.80
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
1.00
0.23
1.09
0.45
0.91
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.75
0.38
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.28
0.90
0.30
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Borac Banja Luka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.27
1.20
0.20
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.38
1.25
0.25
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.23
1.18
0.18
0.73
0.27
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Velež) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Velež
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.30
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
0.42
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.33
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.22
0.80
0.10
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Banja Luka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Banja Luka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Velež over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.0%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.1%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
+0.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Borac Banja Luka · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
David Vuković25%
Dino Skorup20%
Đorđe Despotović20%
Sandi Ogrinec20%
Stefan Savić10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Zoran Kvržić0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Sebastian Herrera0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Enver Kulašin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enver Kulašin56%
Marko Vukčević40%
Sebastian Herrera33%
Bart Meijers30%
Zoran Kvržić25%
David Vuković25%
Boban Nikolov22%
Dino Skorup20%
Đorđe Despotović20%
Nikola Srećković17%
David Čavić12%
Filip Manojlović11%
Jurich Carolina10%
Sandi Ogrinec10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Stefan Savić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Vuković25%
Zoran Kvržić12%
Sebastian Herrera11%
Stefan Savić10%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Dino Skorup0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Đorđe Despotović0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Sandi Ogrinec0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
Enver Kulašin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Đorđe Despotović30%
Sebastian Herrera11%
Srđan Grahovac0%
Boban Nikolov0%
Zoran Kvržić0%
Dino Skorup0%
Filip Manojlović0%
Marko Vukčević0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Bart Meijers0%
Nikola Srećković0%
Stojan Vranješ0%
Stefan Savić0%
Sandi Ogrinec0%
David Čavić0%
Viktor Rogan0%
Damir Hrelja0%
David Vuković0%
Enver Kulašin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
Borac Banja Luka's squad is €6m more valuable than Velež's (€9m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
Borac Banja Luka's attack is €3m more valuable than Velež's (€5m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
Borac Banja Luka and Velež have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
Borac Banja Luka's defence is €2m more valuable than Velež's (€4m vs €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →