Defensive solidity dominates this encounter, with Borac Cacak’s home form showing no goals conceded while scoring an average of one, and Grafičar’s away form conceding 1.1 and scoring 0.7 against weaker opposition. The model favours a Draw, the most likely result, with a 37% chance, while home and away win probabilities sit at 36% and 27% respectively. The expected total goals hover at 1.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 20% probability. The match is projected to be tight and low-scoring.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (100%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 5.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%). Borac Cacak’s five-game winning streak and a recent 2-1 victory over OFK Vršac contrast with Grafičar’s recent 1-4 loss to Dubočica after two straight defeats. The defensive focus and the model’s pick of a draw suggest a cautious, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Borac Cacak win
36.3%
Avg Implied 50.1% · @ 1.81
Edge
-13.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.84
Dafabet
1.82
Unibet
1.76
Draw
36.8%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.35
Edge
+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Grafičar win
26.9%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 3.97
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
Unibet
3.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Borac Cacak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.83
0.86
0.43
1.88
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.43
0.89
0.83
0.50
1.88
1.19
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.93
0.93
1.38
0.88
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.19
1.06
1.62
1.12
0.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (29%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.24-22.1%
Under 1.5
48.8%
@ 3.40+22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.24
Under
Unibet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.6%
@ 1.80-26.8%
Under 2.5
76.4%
@ 1.83+26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.80
Under
Unibet
1.83
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
9.0%
@ 2.95-22.0%
Under 3.5
91.0%
@ 1.32+22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Under
Unibet
1.32
Both teams to score
Yes
33.2%
@ 1.72-20.2%
No
66.8%
@ 1.97+20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.72
No
Unibet
1.97
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
20.0%
1-0
16.0%
1-1
14.3%
0-1
12.8%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
6.0%
0-2
5.3%
1-2
4.9%
Borac Cacak goals ↓
Grafičar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
20%
13%
5.3%
1.3%
0.3%
1
16%
14%
4.9%
1.2%
0.2%
2
8.0%
6.0%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
3
2.4%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
4
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Borac Cacak goals (down), columns = Grafičar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Borac Cacak is 1.83 points better than Grafičar in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Borac Cacak is 1.00 goals better than Grafičar in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Borac Cacak is 0.67 goals better than Grafičar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Borac Cacak or Draw
73.1%
Avg Implied 77.3% · @ 1.15
Edge
-4.3%
36%
37%
27%
covers Borac Cacak + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.15
Borac Cacak or Grafičar
63.2%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.21
Edge
-10.3%
36%
37%
27%
covers Borac Cacak + Grafičar
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.21
Draw or Grafičar
63.7%
Avg Implied 49.1% · @ 1.81
Edge
+14.5%
36%
37%
27%
covers Draw + Grafičar
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.81
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Borac Cacak over/under 0.5
Over
60.2%
Under
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 1.5
Over
23.5%
@ 1.77-27.1%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.82+27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.77
Under
Unibet
1.82
Borac Cacak over/under 2.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5
Over
52.9%
@ 1.44-9.4%
Under
47.1%
@ 2.38+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.44
Under
Unibet
2.38
Grafičar over/under 1.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Borac Cacak, so a minus line means Borac Cacak give that many goals of a start and Grafičar receive them. At -1, Borac Cacak must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Borac Cacak win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Borac Cacak)
Borac Cacak -2
3.7%
Draw -2
10.0%
Grafičar +2
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Borac Cacak)
Borac Cacak -1
13.6%
@ 2.65-16.4%
Draw -1
22.7%
@ 3.05-3.4%
Grafičar +1
63.7%
@ 1.81+19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.65
Draw
Unibet
3.05
Away
Unibet
1.81
Handicap +1 (Borac Cacak)
Borac Cacak +1
73.1%
Draw +1
18.3%
Grafičar -1
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Borac Cacak)
Borac Cacak +2
91.4%
Draw +2
6.7%
Grafičar -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Borac Cacak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.53
0.14
0.21
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.57
0.08
0.25
0.75
0.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.56
0.38
0.21
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.44
0.44
0.62
0.62
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
64.4%
Under 0.5
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
27.3%
@ 2.48-8.9%
Under 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.41+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.48
Under
Unibet
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.5%
Under 2.5
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Borac Cacak over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.9%
Under
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Borac Cacak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.30
0.71
0.21
1.12
0.38
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.96
0.32
0.75
0.25
1.12
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Grafičar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grafičar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.94
0.62
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.88
0.75
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.6%
Under 1.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.0%
Under 2.5
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Borac Cacak over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grafičar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.1%
1.15
Unibet
1.15
-
-
-
-
-4.3%
Home +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.41
Unibet
1.41
-
-
-
-
+8.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (24)
€10m
NAP (24)
€7m
JAV (21)
€5m
FSZ (21)
€4m
GRA (19)
€4m
OV (22)
€4m
LOZ (23)
€3m
FV (20)
€3m
JU (20)
€3m
S1 (23)
€3m
BC (20)
€3m
OB1 (17)
€2m
DUB (17)
€1m
TEL (7)
€1m
Borac Cacak's squad is €1m less valuable than Grafičar's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (9)
€5m
JAV (9)
€2m
NAP (9)
€2m
FSZ (8)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
GRA (8)
€1m
BC (10)
€1m
FV (9)
€1m
OB1 (6)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (7)
€1m
LOZ (9)
€1m
DUB (7)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Borac Cacak and Grafičar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TBT (4)
€1m
LOZ (5)
€1m
OV (4)
€1m
JAV (2)
€1m
FSZ (4)
€1m
NAP (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
S1 (6)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
GRA (3)
€1m
OB1 (3)
€0m
TEL (1)
€0m
BC (3)
€0m
DUB (2)
€0m
Borac Cacak and Grafičar have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAP (12)
€5m
TBT (11)
€4m
JAV (10)
€3m
FSZ (9)
€2m
GRA (8)
€2m
LOZ (9)
€2m
OV (9)
€1m
JU (9)
€1m
S1 (10)
€1m
BC (7)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
DUB (8)
€1m
OB1 (8)
€1m
TEL (3)
€0m
Borac Cacak and Grafičar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →
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Semendrija 1924
TSC Backa Topola
OFK Vršac
Javor
Dubočica
Napredak
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Loznica
FK Vozdovac
Teleoptik
OFK Bor 1919
Naftagas
Metalac GM
Jedinstvo Ub