Borac Cacak's recent form note is a story to tell, coming off a win in their last match against FK Vozdovac. However, their defensive numbers at home are unimpressive, with an average of 1.0 goal conceded per match, suggesting they struggle to keep clean sheets. Naftagas, on the other hand, has a strong away record, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per match against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 1.4 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, occurring 24.9% of the time. Borac Cacak's home scoring average is 1.0 goal per match, while Naftagas' away scoring average is 0.0 goals per match against stronger opponents.
The model's selections are Under 3.5 (94.2%), Under 2.5 (82.4%), and BTTS No (73.7%). The model favours a home win, with a probability of 39%. This is reflected in the match probabilities: Borac Cacak has a 39% chance of winning, a 39% chance of drawing, and a 21% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Borac Cacak’s 4-game winning streak carried over into the match, while Naftagas entered after three consecutive defeats. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Borac secured a 2-1 victory. The pre-match probability for the home win was 39 %. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.7 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.8 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.0 %, Home +2 handicap at 94.6 %, Under 3.5 at 94.1 %, Away under 1.5 goals at 88.9 %, Home or Draw at 78.7 %, and Home +1 handicap also at 78.7 %. All picks settled as hit, confirming the model’s overall assessment.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Borac Cacak win✓ Hit
39.5%
Avg Implied 59.6% · @ 1.51
Edge
-20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.55
Dafabet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Draw✗ Miss
39.3%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.63
Edge
+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Marathonbet
3.70
Naftagas win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 5.79
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
6.10
1xBet
6.09
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Borac Cacak
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.90
0.79
0.43
1.62
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.25
0.96
0.75
0.50
1.62
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftagas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.33
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (32%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.4%
@ 1.32-26.0%
Under 1.5
56.6%
@ 2.99+26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.20
Superbet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.97
1xBet
2.97
Unibet
2.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.7%
@ 2.06-27.0%
Under 2.5
82.3%
@ 1.66+27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Unibet
2.05
Under
Bet365
1.70
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
5.9%
@ 3.70-18.9%
Under 3.5
94.1%
@ 1.21+18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
26.4%
@ 2.09-17.5%
No
73.6%
@ 1.64+17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
No
William Hil
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
24.8%@ 8.16+19.7%
1-0
19.5%@ 5.19+11.4%
1-1
12.9%@ 6.85+6.7%
0-1
12.2%@ 12.29+8.8%
2-0
9.0%@ 6.07+2.1%
2-1 ✓
5.1%@ 7.74-0.3%
0-2
3.8%@ 27.67+2.3%
1-2
3.3%@ 17.00+0.8%
Borac Cacak goals ↓
Naftagas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
25%
12%
3.8%
0.7%
0.1%
1
20%
13%
3.3%
0.6%
0.1%
2
9.0%
5.1%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
3
2.6%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
4
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Borac Cacak goals (down), columns = Naftagas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Cacak
2.50
TSC Backa Topola
2.00
OFK Vršac
2.00
Semendrija 1924
2.00
Javor
1.83
Napredak
1.67
Dubočica
1.67
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.50
Loznica
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.17
Teleoptik
0.83
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
Naftagas
0.67
Jedinstvo Ub
0.67
Metalac GM
0.67
Grafičar
0.67
Borac Cacak is 1.83 points better than Naftagas in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Javor
2.50
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
2.33
Borac Cacak
2.00
Semendrija 1924
1.83
TSC Backa Topola
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.50
Dubočica
1.50
Teleoptik
1.33
Loznica
1.33
Naftagas
1.00
Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
Napredak
1.00
Metalac GM
1.00
Grafičar
1.00
OFK Bor 1919
0.83
FK Vozdovac
0.83
Borac Cacak is 1.00 goals better than Naftagas in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
OFK Vršac
1.00
Javor
1.00
FK Vozdovac
1.00
Semendrija 1924
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.17
Loznica
1.17
Napredak
1.17
Dubočica
1.17
Borac Cacak
1.17
Naftagas
1.50
Jedinstvo Ub
1.83
OFK Bor 1919
1.83
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
1.83
Metalac GM
1.83
Grafičar
1.83
Teleoptik
2.17
Borac Cacak is 0.33 goals better than Naftagas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Borac Cacak or Draw✓ Hit
78.7%
Avg Implied 84.3% · @ 1.08
Edge
-5.5%
39%
39%
21%
covers Borac Cacak + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Borac Cacak or Naftagas✓ Hit
60.7%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.21
Edge
-14.8%
39%
39%
21%
covers Borac Cacak + Naftagas
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Draw or Naftagas✗ Miss
60.5%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.27
Edge
+20.4%
39%
39%
21%
covers Draw + Naftagas
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Borac Cacak over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.3%
@ 1.15-22.5%
Under
41.7%
@ 4.80+22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.10
Superbet
4.50
Borac Cacak over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
21.8%
@ 1.79-29.4%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.88+29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.77
Unibet
1.77
Under
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.82
Borac Cacak over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 3.40-21.2%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.26+21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.45
1xBet
3.35
Under
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Borac Cacak over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 7.10-11.8%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.06+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Under
1xBet
1.06
Naftagas over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
43.3%
@ 1.78-8.1%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.88+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Unibet
1.72
Under
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
Unibet
1.88
1xBet
1.85
Naftagas over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 5.08-7.0%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.12+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
4.85
Under
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Naftagas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 12.50-5.5%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
1xBet
10.00
Under
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Naftagas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Borac Cacak, so a minus line means Borac Cacak give that many goals of a start and Naftagas receive them. At -1, Borac Cacak must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Borac Cacak win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Borac Cacak)Actual: Naftagas
Borac Cacak -2
3.7%
@ 5.30-13.1%
Draw -2
10.6%
@ 4.60-8.8%
Naftagas +2
85.6%
@ 1.40+21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
5.30
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.40
Handicap -1 (Borac Cacak)Actual: Draw
Borac Cacak -1
14.4%
@ 2.53-19.7%
Draw -1
25.1%
@ 3.09-2.8%
Naftagas +1
60.5%
@ 2.26+22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.63
Marathonbet
2.56
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.38
Draw
Marathonbet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
2.75
Away
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Unibet
2.08
Handicap +1 (Borac Cacak)Actual: Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak +1
78.7%
Draw +1
15.9%
Naftagas -1
5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Borac Cacak)Actual: Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak +2
94.6%
Draw +2
4.5%
Naftagas -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Borac Cacak
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.14
0.29
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.39
0.64
0.08
0.33
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftagas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.0
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
100% (+67pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Borac Cacak over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Borac Cacak
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
0.64
0.14
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.86
0.32
0.67
0.17
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Naftagas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Naftagas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.33
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Borac Cacak) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Borac Cacak over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Borac Cacak over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Naftagas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.0%
1.01
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
94.1%
1.21
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
+18.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
88.9%
1.12
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.7%
1.08
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
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✓ Hit
BTTS No
73.6%
1.64
William Hil
1.67
Unibet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
+17.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Serbia: Prva Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Serbia: Prva Liga stats & trends →