Borussia Dortmund’s strong home form, averaging 2.75 goals scored and only 0.83 conceded, makes them the clear favourite in this Bundesliga clash, and the model picks a home win. The opponent’s weaker strength at home further boosts Dortmund’s odds, reflected in a 73% chance of victory, 18% for a draw and 9% for a Paderborn win. The expected total of 3.0 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring game, yet the most likely total is 2 goals with a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0, with a 13.2% chance, aligning with Dortmund’s recent 2-0 win over Hamburger SV and Paderborn’s 0-0 draw against Mainz.
The model’s suggested picks include an Away under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Under 7.5 (99.6% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (98.7% with an 8% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.0%), Home +2 handicap (97.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%), and Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.9%). These selections highlight Dortmund’s defensive solidity and Paderborn’s limited scoring threat.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Borussia Dortmund win
71.8%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.24
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Dafabet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Draw
19.0%
Avg Implied 14.8% · @ 6.36
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.01
Marathonbet
6.90
Pinnacle
6.79
Dafabet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
SC Paderborn 07 win
9.2%
Avg Implied 9.3% · @ 10.08
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
11.00
1xBet
10.90
Marathonbet
10.75
Betano
10.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Borussia Dortmund
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.13
2.41
0.94
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.50
1.50
0.75
1.25
2.25
vs Weaker (21)
2.33
0.90
2.75
0.83
1.78
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.40
2.14
1.79
1.31
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.69
1.41
2.15
1.85
1.31
1.06
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.1%
@ 1.08-6.2%
Under 1.5
19.9%
@ 6.82+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.05
Under
Unibet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.5%
@ 1.33-13.9%
Under 2.5
43.5%
@ 3.16+13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.31
Betfair
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.1%
@ 1.90-16.3%
Under 3.5
65.9%
@ 1.93+16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.97
Unibet
1.94
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
1xBet
2.01
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Both teams to score
Yes
45.8%
@ 1.72-8.4%
No
54.2%
@ 2.04+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.78
Bet365
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.73
No
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.08
Betano
2.07
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.3%@ 7.76+7.4%
1-0
11.0%@ 9.79+6.3%
3-0
9.9%@ 8.04+4.3%
2-1
9.3%@ 8.46+3.9%
1-1
9.1%@ 12.05+5.3%
3-1
6.9%@ 9.31+2.1%
0-0
6.1%@ 26.04+4.3%
4-0
5.6%@ 10.78+1.4%
Borussia Dortmund goals ↓
SC Paderborn 07 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
11%
9.1%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.3%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
3
9.9%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
0.1%
4
5.6%
3.9%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Borussia Dortmund goals (down), columns = SC Paderborn 07 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bayern München
2.62
Borussia Dortmund
2.15
RB Leipzig
1.91
VfB Stuttgart
1.82
1899 Hoffenheim
1.79
Bayer Leverkusen
1.74
SC Freiburg
1.38
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.29
FC Augsburg
1.26
FSV Mainz 05
1.18
Union Berlin
1.15
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.12
Hamburger SV
1.12
SV Elversberg
1.00
SC Paderborn 07
1.00
FC Schalke 04
1.00
1. FC Köln
0.94
Werder Bremen
0.94
Borussia Dortmund is 1.15 points better than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of average points per game (2.15 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bayern München
3.59
VfB Stuttgart
2.09
Borussia Dortmund
2.06
Bayer Leverkusen
2.00
RB Leipzig
1.94
1899 Hoffenheim
1.91
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.79
SC Freiburg
1.50
1. FC Köln
1.44
FC Augsburg
1.32
FSV Mainz 05
1.29
Union Berlin
1.29
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.24
Hamburger SV
1.18
SV Elversberg
1.15
FC Schalke 04
1.14
Werder Bremen
1.09
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund is 1.56 goals better than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of goals scored per game (2.06 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SC Paderborn 07
0.50
Borussia Dortmund
1.00
Bayern München
1.06
Bayer Leverkusen
1.38
RB Leipzig
1.38
VfB Stuttgart
1.44
1899 Hoffenheim
1.53
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.56
FSV Mainz 05
1.56
Hamburger SV
1.59
SC Freiburg
1.68
Union Berlin
1.71
Werder Bremen
1.76
FC Augsburg
1.79
1. FC Köln
1.85
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.91
SV Elversberg
2.10
FC Schalke 04
2.11
Borussia Dortmund is 0.50 goals worse than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bayern München
67%
Bayer Leverkusen
59%
VfB Stuttgart
58%
1899 Hoffenheim
55%
Eintracht Frankfurt
55%
RB Leipzig
54%
Borussia Dortmund
53%
SC Paderborn 07
52%
Werder Bremen
51%
SC Freiburg
48%
1. FC Köln
47%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
47%
Hamburger SV
45%
FSV Mainz 05
44%
FC Augsburg
44%
Union Berlin
40%
Borussia Dortmund is 1.2 percentage points better than SC Paderborn 07 in terms of average possession (53% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Borussia Dortmund
For 5.3 · Against 2.7 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Paderborn 07
For 5.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.2 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Borussia Dortmund
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.6
8.2
3.0
2.4
3.6
22.5
21.8
23.2
vs Stronger (3)
7.3
7.0
7.5
2.7
1.0
3.5
27.3
25.0
28.5
vs Similar (14)
8.1
8.4
7.8
3.1
2.4
3.9
23.5
23.4
23.6
vs Weaker (33)
9.4
10.1
8.5
2.9
2.4
3.5
21.7
21.1
22.3
% over line
37%
50%
24%
40%
31%
50%
63%
59%
67%
% under line
63%
50%
76%
60%
69%
50%
37%
41%
33%
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.0
9.0
4.4
3.9
5.0
24.0
23.0
24.9
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
9.8
10.9
8.5
4.6
4.0
5.2
23.5
23.2
23.8
vs Weaker (4)
12.2
13.0
12.0
3.8
5.0
3.3
29.5
19.0
33.0
% over line
57%
71%
44%
68%
56%
80%
65%
54%
76%
% under line
43%
29%
56%
32%
44%
20%
35%
46%
24%
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
RB Leipzig
10.4
1899 Hoffenheim
10.3
1. FC Köln
10.3
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
SC Paderborn 07
10.0
FC Augsburg
9.8
FC Schalke 04
9.8
Hamburger SV
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Union Berlin
9.6
Bayer Leverkusen
9.6
SV Elversberg
9.5
Werder Bremen
9.5
FSV Mainz 05
9.4
Eintracht Frankfurt
9.1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
9.0
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
SC Freiburg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hamburger SV
5.2
SC Paderborn 07
4.6
Werder Bremen
4.6
SV Elversberg
4.5
Bayer Leverkusen
4.5
FC Schalke 04
4.4
1. FC Köln
4.4
FSV Mainz 05
4.3
FC Augsburg
4.2
Union Berlin
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
1899 Hoffenheim
4.1
Eintracht Frankfurt
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.9
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
SC Freiburg
3.6
RB Leipzig
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
SV Elversberg
24.3
SC Paderborn 07
24.2
Hamburger SV
24.1
FC Schalke 04
23.6
SC Freiburg
22.9
1899 Hoffenheim
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
FSV Mainz 05
21.7
FC Augsburg
21.7
Union Berlin
21.6
Werder Bremen
20.5
1. FC Köln
20.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
20.5
RB Leipzig
19.9
Eintracht Frankfurt
19.8
Bayer Leverkusen
19.7
Bayern München
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.8%
@ 1.76-9.4%
Under 9.5
57.2%
@ 1.92+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.76
Under
Unibet
1.92
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.4%
Under 3.5
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
45.8%
Under 21.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Borussia Dortmund or Draw
90.6%
Avg Implied 90.5% · @ 1.05
Edge
+0.1%
72%
19%
9%
covers Borussia Dortmund + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Borussia Dortmund or SC Paderborn 07
77.7%
Avg Implied 85.6% · @ 1.11
Edge
-7.9%
72%
19%
9%
covers Borussia Dortmund + SC Paderborn 07
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
31.8%
Avg Implied 24.0% · @ 3.96
Edge
+7.8%
72%
19%
9%
covers Draw + SC Paderborn 07
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.08
Betano
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
@ 1.04-6.6%
Under
15.1%
@ 11.25+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Under
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5
Over
56.4%
@ 1.23-19.5%
Under
43.6%
@ 3.86+19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.19
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5
Over
29.4%
@ 1.75-24.0%
Under
70.6%
@ 2.01+24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Under
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Betfair
2.00
Betano
2.00
Borussia Dortmund over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
@ 2.88-19.8%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.37+19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Unibet
2.90
10Bet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5
Over
43.4%
@ 1.62-14.0%
Under
56.6%
@ 2.19+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
1xBet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
Betfair
2.20
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5
Over
11.2%
@ 4.07-11.7%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.21+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.30
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5
Over
2.0%
@ 11.69-6.1%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.03+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
13.00
Marathonbet
11.75
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
@ 27.50-3.3%
Under
99.7%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Borussia Dortmund, so a minus line means Borussia Dortmund give that many goals of a start and SC Paderborn 07 receive them. At -1, Borussia Dortmund must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Borussia Dortmund win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Borussia Dortmund)
Borussia Dortmund -2
21.1%
@ 2.46-15.3%
Draw -2
21.5%
@ 4.07-0.5%
SC Paderborn 07 +2
57.4%
@ 2.15+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.40
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.85
Away
Bet365
2.20
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Handicap -1 (Borussia Dortmund)
Borussia Dortmund -1
42.6%
@ 1.61-13.4%
Draw -1
25.6%
@ 4.19+4.2%
SC Paderborn 07 +1
31.8%
@ 3.99+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Away
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Handicap +1 (Borussia Dortmund)
Borussia Dortmund +1
90.6%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Draw +1
7.1%
@ 11.67-0.8%
SC Paderborn 07 -1
2.3%
@ 21.00-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
23.00
10Bet
17.00
Handicap +2 (Borussia Dortmund)
Borussia Dortmund +2
97.7%
Draw +2
2.0%
SC Paderborn 07 -2
0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Borussia Dortmund
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.24
0.35
0.46
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.88
0.75
0.25
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.33
1.42
0.42
0.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
1.00
1.07
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.76
1.08
1.08
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
@ 1.18-4.9%
Under 0.5
25.7%
@ 4.49+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.75
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 1.93-11.7%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.84+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
SBO
2.02
Unibet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 3.93-12.9%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.22+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.7%
@ 1.33-13.2%
Under
43.3%
@ 3.09+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.10
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.9%
@ 2.54-16.6%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.46+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Unibet
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Marathonbet
2.52
Under
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
@ 5.90-12.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.10+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.30
Unibet
6.00
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.9%
@ 2.87+0.5%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.38-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.05
Pinnacle
3.01
Betano
2.87
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Under
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.5%
@ 10.38-1.6%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.04+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Borussia Dortmund
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.67
1.18
0.59
1.15
0.77
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
1.29
0.57
1.33
0.42
1.22
0.78
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Paderborn 07) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SC Paderborn 07
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.14
0.71
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.93
0.66
1.08
0.77
0.81
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Borussia Dortmund) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.0%
@ 1.11-5.1%
Under 0.5
20.0%
@ 6.34+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
6.50
Betano
6.10
10Bet
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.5%
@ 1.56-16.6%
Under 1.5
56.5%
@ 2.34+16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.42
1xBet
2.42
Unibet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.4%
@ 2.72-10.1%
Under 2.5
75.6%
@ 1.43+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.70
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Borussia Dortmund over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.7%
@ 1.21-19.8%
Under
42.3%
@ 4.15+19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.10
Borussia Dortmund over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.1%
@ 1.97-16.0%
Under
68.9%
@ 1.75+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Borussia Dortmund over/under 2.5 2H
Over
13.6%
@ 3.92-10.0%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.21+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.75
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.4%
@ 2.31+4.3%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.55-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.53
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.9%
@ 7.90-2.8%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.20
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
SC Paderborn 07 over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.6%
@ 12.50-3.8%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
Under 7.5
99.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+5.3%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.03
-
+8.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
98.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+6.1%
Home +2 handicap
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
-
+12.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
Under 5.5
96.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+14.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+2.8%
Home or Draw
90.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
+0.1%
Home +1 handicap
90.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+2.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.22
+12.9%
Away under 1.5 goals
88.8%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.20
+11.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
87.6%
1.37
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
+19.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
-
+10.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
84.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-6.6%
Under 25.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.1%
1.46
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
+16.6%
Over 1.5
80.1%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.05
-6.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.11
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-5.1%
Under 11.5 corners
79.2%
1.36
Unibet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+11.5%
Home or Away
77.7%
1.11
1xBet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-7.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.6%
1.43
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.40
+10.1%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.18
Betano
1.23
William Hil
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
-4.9%
Over 2.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
71.8%
1.24
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Dafabet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
-4.1%
Under 23.5 fouls
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Borussia Dortmund · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Serhou Guirassy39%
Karim Adeyemi26%
Julian Brandt24%
Maximilian Beier23%
Emre Can19%
Ramy Bensebaini19%
Samuele Inacio14%
Nico Schlotterbeck14%
Yan Couto11%
Luca Reggiani11%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Felix Nmecha10%
Daniel Svensson9%
Carney Chukwuemeka8%
Fábio Silva8%
Waldemar Anton7%
Marcel Sabitzer3%
Niklas Süle0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Julian Ryerson0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Jobe Bellingham0%
Filippo Mané0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Reggiani33%
Emre Can31%
Niklas Süle31%
Samuele Inacio29%
Ramy Bensebaini28%
Julian Ryerson24%
Nico Schlotterbeck22%
Karim Adeyemi18%
Yan Couto15%
Waldemar Anton14%
Fábio Silva13%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Maximilian Beier9%
Marcel Sabitzer9%
Jobe Bellingham7%
Serhou Guirassy7%
Gregor Kobel6%
Carney Chukwuemeka5%
Daniel Svensson4%
Felix Nmecha0%
Julian Brandt0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Filippo Mané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Julian Ryerson36%
Fábio Silva18%
Karim Adeyemi15%
Maximilian Beier14%
Pascal Groß12%
Marcel Sabitzer12%
Aarón Anselmino10%
Ramy Bensebaini9%
Serhou Guirassy9%
Niklas Süle8%
Yan Couto7%
Julian Brandt7%
Felix Nmecha7%
Carney Chukwuemeka5%
Daniel Svensson4%
Jobe Bellingham4%
Nico Schlotterbeck3%
Emre Can0%
Salih Özcan0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Waldemar Anton0%
Filippo Mané0%
Samuele Inacio0%
Luca Reggiani0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Serhou Guirassy24%
Karim Adeyemi15%
Maximilian Beier14%
Julian Brandt7%
Felix Nmecha7%
Fábio Silva5%
Marcel Sabitzer3%
Nico Schlotterbeck3%
Carney Chukwuemeka3%
Niklas Süle0%
Emre Can0%
Ramy Bensebaini0%
Pascal Groß0%
Salih Özcan0%
Julian Ryerson0%
Gregor Kobel0%
Waldemar Anton0%
Yan Couto0%
Daniel Svensson0%
Jobe Bellingham0%
Filippo Mané0%
Aarón Anselmino0%
Samuele Inacio0%
Luca Reggiani0%
SC Paderborn 07 · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Filip Bilbija39%
Adriano Grimaldi25%
Lucas Copado25%
Marcel Hoffmeier20%
Laurin Curda19%
Stefano Marino19%
Sebastian Klaas17%
Sven Michel13%
Mika Baur11%
Steffen Tigges9%
Kennedy Okpala8%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Raphael Obermair7%
Nick Bätzner6%
Tjark Lasse Scheller6%
Luis Engelns5%
Felix Götze3%
David Kinsombi0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Ruben Müller0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcel Hoffmeier40%
Kennedy Okpala33%
Laurin Curda22%
Mattes Hansen21%
Sven Michel20%
Marco Wörner20%
Santiago Castañeda18%
Raphael Obermair17%
Mika Baur17%
Ruben Müller17%
Filip Bilbija15%
Tjark Lasse Scheller14%
Felix Götze12%
Nick Bätzner12%
Luis Engelns11%
Calvin Brackelmann7%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Stefano Marino6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Jonah Sticker4%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Lucas Copado0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raphael Obermair30%
Laurin Curda19%
Mika Baur14%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Sebastian Klaas10%
Filip Bilbija9%
Ruben Müller8%
Felix Götze6%
Steffen Tigges6%
Nick Bätzner6%
Sven Michel3%
Stefano Marino3%
Mattes Hansen3%
David Kinsombi0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Santiago Castañeda0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Stefano Marino23%
Laurin Curda19%
Steffen Tigges18%
Filip Bilbija15%
Calvin Brackelmann11%
Raphael Obermair10%
Sebastian Klaas7%
Sven Michel7%
Mika Baur6%
Nick Bätzner3%
Santiago Castañeda3%
David Kinsombi0%
Felix Götze0%
Adriano Grimaldi0%
Marcel Hoffmeier0%
Tjark Lasse Scheller0%
Lucas Copado0%
Marco Wörner0%
Dennis Seimen0%
Jonah Sticker0%
Mattes Hansen0%
Ruben Müller0%
Kennedy Okpala0%
Luis Engelns0%
Niklas Mohr0%
Lucas Copado0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (29)
€1076m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
BL (30)
€499m
VS (54)
€430m
EF (26)
€323m
1H (53)
€309m
SF (30)
€243m
FM0 (29)
€175m
FA (28)
€161m
1FK (74)
€133m
BM (29)
€129m
UB (29)
€123m
WB (33)
€119m
HS (28)
€117m
FS0 (29)
€67m
SE (27)
€52m
SP0 (33)
€43m
Borussia Dortmund's squad is €486m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€529m vs €43m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (10)
€554m
BL (13)
€246m
RL (12)
€212m
VS (19)
€193m
EF (11)
€174m
BD (8)
€170m
1H (22)
€111m
SF (10)
€96m
1FK (25)
€72m
FA (12)
€64m
BM (11)
€58m
WB (13)
€50m
FM0 (11)
€49m
UB (10)
€46m
HS (11)
€46m
SE (12)
€33m
FS0 (8)
€17m
SP0 (11)
€14m
Borussia Dortmund's attack is €156m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€170m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (6)
€187m
BD (7)
€146m
RL (6)
€109m
1H (11)
€105m
VS (10)
€92m
BL (5)
€91m
FM0 (5)
€80m
EF (4)
€78m
SF (5)
€36m
HS (5)
€34m
WB (5)
€28m
UB (6)
€26m
FS0 (8)
€24m
FA (6)
€23m
BM (5)
€22m
1FK (16)
€19m
SP0 (13)
€18m
SE (3)
€4m
Borussia Dortmund's midfield is €128m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€146m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BM (13)
€336m
BD (14)
€214m
RL (13)
€185m
BL (12)
€162m
VS (25)
€145m
SF (15)
€110m
1H (20)
€92m
FA (10)
€74m
EF (11)
€72m
UB (13)
€50m
BM (13)
€49m
FM0 (13)
€47m
1FK (33)
€43m
WB (15)
€41m
HS (12)
€37m
FS0 (13)
€26m
SE (12)
€14m
SP0 (9)
€11m
Borussia Dortmund's defence is €202m more valuable than SC Paderborn 07's (€214m vs €11m).
Germany: Bundesliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Germany: Bundesliga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bayern München
SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
FC Augsburg
SV Elversberg
1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Berlin
FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen
1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
Werder Bremen
Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart