This highly anticipated match between Botev Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria: First League is finely balanced, with Botev Plovdiv coming off a win against Cherno More Varna in their last encounter. The home side has been in decent form at home, scoring 2.0 goals on average and conceding just 0.9. In contrast, Cherno More Varna's away form has been underwhelming, scoring 1.17 goals and conceding 1.0 on average against similar opponents.
The model predicts a 38% chance of a home win, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 31% chance of an away win, with the model's selection being a home win. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.5% probability. The model's selection is "Under 3.5", with a 79.4% probability, and "Over 3.5 cards", with a 74.4% probability. The home win percentage is 38%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 31%.
Results analysis
Botev Plovdiv's win extends their run, coming off a win after a home match against Cherno More Varna. The final score was 1-0, resulting in a home win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given its pre-match probability of 38%. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's Under 3.5 selection hitting, boasting a pre-match probability of 79.4%. The model's call was spot on, as the home team took the lead in the most likely score of 1-0, which had a 10.7% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Botev Plovdiv win✓ Hit
37.8%
Avg Implied 54.5% · @ 1.69
Edge
-16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.73
SBO
1.73
BetVictor
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.52
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Cherno More Varna win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied 19.3% · @ 4.78
Edge
+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.21
BetVictor
5.00
Dafabet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Botev Plovdiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.10
1.77
1.00
1.29
1.18
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.67
vs Similar (25)
1.44
0.96
1.75
1.00
1.15
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.17
0.73
1.33
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
1.38
0.73
1.55
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
2.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.8%
@ 1.30-2.2%
Under 1.5
31.2%
@ 3.20+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.32
888Sport
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.21
10Bet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.0%
@ 1.99-5.8%
Under 2.5
59.0%
@ 1.75+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.02
Under
Unibet
1.82
SBO
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.6%
@ 3.47-6.1%
Under 3.5
79.4%
@ 1.26+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.66
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
888Sport
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Under
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
@ 1.89-0.4%
No
51.6%
@ 1.80+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
No
Unibet
1.85
Betfair
1.85
888Sport
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%@ 6.18+7.5%
0-0
11.1%@ 8.52+6.0%
1-0 ✓
10.7%@ 5.70+3.1%
0-1
9.4%@ 10.61+5.3%
2-1
8.1%@ 7.44+2.2%
2-0
7.4%@ 7.08+1.2%
1-2
7.2%@ 13.57+4.0%
0-2
5.9%@ 23.30+4.0%
Botev Plovdiv goals ↓
Cherno More Varna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.4%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
1
11%
14%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.4%
8.1%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Botev Plovdiv goals (down), columns = Cherno More Varna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
Ludogorets
2.67
CSKA Sofia
2.60
CSKA 1948
2.40
Arda Kardzhali
2.17
Spartak Varna
1.20
Slavia Sofia
1.20
Botev Plovdiv
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.17
Botev Vratsa
0.67
Cherno More Varna
0.67
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Dunav Ruse
0.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.40
Botev Plovdiv is 0.50 points better than Cherno More Varna in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.60
CSKA 1948
2.20
Ludogorets
1.83
Arda Kardzhali
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.20
Botev Plovdiv
1.17
Cherno More Varna
1.17
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Dunav Ruse
0.83
Botev Vratsa
0.67
Septemvri Sofia
0.67
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.50
Botev Plovdiv and Cherno More Varna are level in goals scored per game (both 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Levski Sofia
0.40
Slavia Sofia
0.60
CSKA Sofia
0.60
Ludogorets
0.67
Arda Kardzhali
0.67
CSKA 1948
1.00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.33
Botev Plovdiv
1.50
Septemvri Sofia
1.50
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Spartak Varna
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.17
Cherno More Varna
2.17
Botev Plovdiv is 0.67 goals better than Cherno More Varna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Botev Plovdiv
For 4.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cherno More Varna
For 4.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Botev Plovdiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.5
9.7
2.6
3.4
1.9
22.3
23.2
21.3
vs Stronger (9)
9.7
8.3
11.0
3.2
4.0
2.6
22.2
22.7
21.7
vs Similar (40)
9.5
9.8
9.3
2.5
3.3
1.9
22.3
23.3
21.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
53%
47%
34%
43%
26%
67%
73%
60%
% under line
50%
47%
53%
66%
57%
74%
33%
27%
40%
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
9.5
8.2
2.2
1.8
2.5
24.5
25.5
23.6
vs Stronger (13)
10.7
13.0
9.8
2.7
1.3
3.9
23.9
27.5
22.4
vs Similar (31)
8.1
9.0
7.2
2.2
1.9
2.6
24.9
25.5
24.4
vs Weaker (6)
7.0
7.0
-
0.8
2.5
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
46%
45%
46%
32%
28%
36%
75%
91%
62%
% under line
54%
55%
54%
68%
72%
64%
25%
9%
38%
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.4
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
CSKA Sofia
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.5
Botev Vratsa
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
8.9
Arda Kardzhali
8.6
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.8
Cherno More Varna
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.7
Slavia Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.9
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
23.0
Septemvri Sofia
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.9
Ludogorets
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
CSKA Sofia
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.3%
@ 2.02-3.7%
Under 9.5
57.7%
@ 1.72+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
Unibet
1.97
Under
Superbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.8%
Under 3.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Botev Plovdiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.62
0.31
0.65
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.44
0.67
0.33
0.54
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.40
0.33
0.47
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.57
0.27
0.64
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Botev Plovdiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
1.15
0.69
0.65
0.65
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
2.00
1.00
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.52
1.08
0.67
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cherno More Varna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cherno More Varna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.40
0.87
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.81
0.45
0.91
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.25
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cherno More Varna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cherno More Varna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cherno More Varna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
79.5%
1.24
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
+5.7%
-
Under 3.5
79.4%
1.26
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
BP (52)
€20m
AK (20)
€10m
CMV (22)
€6m
Botev Plovdiv's squad is €13m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€20m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
BP (20)
€7m
AK (7)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
Botev Plovdiv's attack is €4m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€7m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
BP (11)
€4m
AK (3)
€3m
CMV (5)
€1m
Botev Plovdiv's midfield is €3m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€4m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
BP (21)
€8m
AK (10)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
Botev Plovdiv's defence is €6m more valuable than Cherno More Varna's (€8m vs €2m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
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Ludogorets
Levski Sofia
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Spartak Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Dunav Ruse
Lokomotiv Sofia