Levski Sofia are tipped to win in a match that looks set to be low-scoring, with a 48% chance of a victory for the away side versus Botev Plovdiv’s 24% and a 28% draw probability. The model predicts an average of 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% chance. Botev’s home form shows they average two goals scored and one conceded against stronger opponents, while Levski’s away record against weaker teams sees them netting 1.83 goals and conceding 0.83. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 98.2% with a 2% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8%, Under 5.5 at 94.8% with a 2% edge, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.7% with a 1% edge.
Results analysis
The win for Levski Sofia extends their recent run, while Botev Plovdiv’s three-straight defeats continue. The final score was 1-3, an away win that matched the model’s pick, which had a 48% probability. The model’s selection proved correct. The model’s suggested picks all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.3%, Under 5.5 at 94.8%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.6%. Each probability is expressed as a percentage, and every selection’s outcome is noted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Botev Plovdiv win✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.73
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.09
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Dafabet
4.80
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.56
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
3.70
Bet365
3.70
Pinnacle
3.67
Dafabet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Levski Sofia win✓ Hit
48.3%
Avg Implied 54.5% · @ 1.69
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Botev Plovdiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.20
1.80
1.00
0.93
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
2.00
1.00
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.00
1.79
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levski Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
0.80
2.00
0.44
1.36
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.92
0.80
0.20
1.14
1.43
vs Weaker (18)
2.17
0.72
2.55
0.55
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.2%
@ 1.29+3.4%
Under 1.5
24.8%
@ 3.28-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Superbet
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.1%
@ 1.95+1.0%
Under 2.5
50.9%
@ 1.80-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
SBO
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Bet365
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.2%
@ 3.33-0.6%
Under 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.28+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.50
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
@ 1.85+3.2%
No
47.0%
@ 1.83-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
No
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.37+6.3%
0-1
10.1%@ 5.97+2.8%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.36+3.5%
0-2
8.9%@ 7.17+2.9%
0-0
8.4%@ 8.71+3.4%
1-0
6.4%@ 10.98+2.4%
2-1
6.3%@ 13.64+3.1%
2-2
5.0%@ 14.61+2.0%
Botev Plovdiv goals ↓
Levski Sofia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
10%
8.9%
4.7%
1.9%
1
6.4%
13%
9.4%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.0%
6.3%
5.0%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.4%
2.2%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Botev Plovdiv goals (down), columns = Levski Sofia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Botev Plovdiv is 2.00 points worse than Levski Sofia in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Spartak Varna
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Botev Plovdiv is 1.71 goals worse than Levski Sofia in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Botev Plovdiv is 1.14 goals worse than Levski Sofia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Botev Plovdiv
For 4.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Levski Sofia
For 5.7 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.2 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Botev Plovdiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.5
9.9
2.7
3.2
2.2
22.1
23.2
20.9
vs Stronger (10)
9.7
8.3
11.0
2.9
4.0
2.2
22.2
22.7
21.7
vs Similar (40)
9.7
9.8
9.5
2.6
3.0
2.2
22.0
23.3
20.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
53%
50%
34%
40%
28%
66%
73%
57%
% under line
48%
47%
50%
66%
60%
72%
34%
27%
43%
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levski Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
9.9
2.0
1.9
2.2
23.4
21.2
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
9.0
7.7
9.8
2.4
1.8
2.9
26.6
27.3
26.2
vs Weaker (31)
9.8
9.6
10.0
1.8
1.9
1.7
21.8
19.1
25.1
% over line
50%
50%
50%
24%
23%
25%
67%
50%
83%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
76%
77%
75%
33%
50%
17%
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.6
Botev Plovdiv
10.1
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Botev Vratsa
9.5
Ludogorets
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.4
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Septemvri Sofia
9.1
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.8
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
5.0
Botev Vratsa
4.9
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
CSKA Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.0
Levski Sofia
24.6
Botev Vratsa
24.6
Arda Kardzhali
24.2
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Spartak Varna
22.9
Septemvri Sofia
22.8
CSKA 1948
22.7
CSKA Sofia
22.5
Ludogorets
22.4
Botev Plovdiv
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.3%
@ 2.03+2.6%
Under 9.5
51.7%
@ 1.71-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
1xBet
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.0%
@ 1.37+2.7%
Under 3.5
29.0%
@ 2.95-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.95
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.5%
Under 21.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Botev Plovdiv or Draw✗ Miss
51.7%
Avg Implied 45.2% · @ 2.05
Edge
+6.5%
24%
28%
48%
covers Botev Plovdiv + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Botev Plovdiv or Levski Sofia✓ Hit
72.5%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.0%
24%
28%
48%
covers Botev Plovdiv + Levski Sofia
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Draw or Levski Sofia✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied 80.3% · @ 1.16
Edge
-4.4%
24%
28%
48%
covers Draw + Levski Sofia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.2%
@ 1.57+6.4%
Under
34.8%
@ 2.24-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.66
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.5%
@ 3.80+4.2%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.22-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.16
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 10.35-0.0%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.04+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.90
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Botev Plovdiv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 26.75-1.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.4%
@ 1.15-0.6%
Under
20.6%
@ 4.62+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.9%
@ 1.84-3.5%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.87+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Under
Betfair
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.2%
@ 3.62-4.3%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.24+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.90
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Under
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Levski Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 7.58-4.8%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.07+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Betano
6.90
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Botev Plovdiv, so a minus line means Botev Plovdiv give that many goals of a start and Levski Sofia receive them. At -1, Botev Plovdiv must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Botev Plovdiv win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Botev Plovdiv)Actual: Levski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv -2
2.7%
@ 29.00-0.5%
Draw -2
6.7%
@ 15.00+0.5%
Levski Sofia +2
90.5%
@ 1.04+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
29.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
1.04
Handicap -1 (Botev Plovdiv)Actual: Levski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv -1
9.5%
@ 9.53+0.3%
Draw -1
14.7%
@ 5.57-1.0%
Levski Sofia +1
75.8%
@ 1.16+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
5.60
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap +1 (Botev Plovdiv)Actual: Levski Sofia
Botev Plovdiv +1
51.7%
@ 2.08+8.9%
Draw +1
22.6%
@ 3.39-3.6%
Levski Sofia -1
25.7%
@ 2.87-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.20
Away
10Bet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Marathonbet
2.85
Unibet
2.85
Handicap +2 (Botev Plovdiv)Actual: Draw
Botev Plovdiv +2
74.3%
@ 1.35+8.0%
Draw +2
15.1%
@ 4.85-3.4%
Levski Sofia -2
10.6%
@ 5.89-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.50
Away
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Botev Plovdiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.80
0.27
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.40
0.86
0.29
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levski Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.56
0.06
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.42
0.40
0.00
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (18)
0.56
0.22
0.64
0.09
0.43
0.43
Clean sheet %
80% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.39+6.6%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 2.77-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.95
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.8%
@ 2.79-0.4%
Under 1.5
67.2%
@ 1.39+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.98
Betano
2.92
William Hil
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Under
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 7.01-0.6%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.07+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.55
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.4%
@ 2.76+1.7%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.40-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
Under
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.4%
@ 10.32-1.6%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.20
Marathonbet
10.75
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.7%
@ 1.75+2.7%
Under
44.3%
@ 1.97-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.74
Unibet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 4.83-3.6%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.15+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.7%
@ 10.25-5.4%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Botev Plovdiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
1.00
0.73
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.60
0.93
0.71
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levski Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.44
0.38
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.50
0.40
0.20
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (18)
1.61
0.50
1.91
0.45
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.9%
@ 1.24+3.4%
Under 0.5
22.1%
@ 3.62-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Under
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.52
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.1%
@ 2.14+1.7%
Under 1.5
54.9%
@ 1.65-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Under
Betano
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.0%
@ 4.61-2.2%
Under 2.5
82.0%
@ 1.16+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.7%
@ 2.25+0.6%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.57-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.28
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.54
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 7.57-1.8%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.06+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
7.90
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 12.50-5.4%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.3%
@ 1.53-0.5%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.37+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.51
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.32
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
27.4%
@ 3.43+0.4%
Under
72.6%
@ 1.27-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
7.8%
@ 8.50-3.1%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.07
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.4%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.16
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.4%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.24
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.8%
1.16
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
75.8%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.2%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.8%
1.24
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+0.6%
-
Home +2 handicap
74.3%
1.35
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.34
Betfair
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
-
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.39
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.8%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.6%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
-
-
-0.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.5%
1.24
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.5%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.0%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Botev Plovdiv · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Armstrong Oko-Flex50%
Franklin Mascote32%
Pedro Igor25%
Dimitar Mitkov17%
Nikolay Minkov15%
Carlos Algarra López11%
Edson Silva11%
Samuil Tsonov9%
Enock Kwateng8%
Lucas Araujo7%
Samuel Kalu6%
Ivaylo Videv6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Todor Nedelev5%
Daniel Naumov0%
Konstantinos Balogiannis0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Nikola Iliev0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Emmanuel John0%
Aleksa Maraš0%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edson Silva56%
Antoine Conte43%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo38%
Dimitar Mitkov33%
Andrey Yordanov30%
Konstantinos Balogiannis25%
Gabriel Noga25%
Ivaylo Videv25%
Enock Kwateng23%
Carlos Algarra López22%
Lucas Araujo21%
Nikola Iliev21%
Simeon Petrov20%
Samuil Tsonov18%
Nikola Soldo18%
Emil Martinov17%
Aleksa Maraš14%
Armstrong Oko-Flex12%
Samuel Kalu12%
Stivan Petkov12%
Pedro Igor12%
Nikolay Minkov10%
Todor Nedelev5%
Daniel Naumov5%
Tailson0%
Franklin Mascote0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Emmanuel John0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Armstrong Oko-Flex25%
Zakaria Tindano20%
Aleksa Maraš14%
Konstantinos Balogiannis12%
Henrique Jocu11%
Todor Nedelev11%
Nikola Iliev11%
Nikolay Minkov10%
Emerson Rodríguez10%
Samuel Kalu6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Daniel Naumov0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Enock Kwateng0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Franklin Mascote0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Dimitar Mitkov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Lucas Araujo0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Edson Silva0%
Emmanuel John0%
Pedro Igor0%
Ivaylo Videv0%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo0%
Samuil Tsonov0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Kalu12%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo12%
Todor Nedelev11%
Franklin Mascote11%
Emerson Rodríguez10%
Lucas Araujo7%
Konstantinos Balogiannis6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Nikolay Minkov5%
Daniel Naumov0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Enock Kwateng0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Dimitar Mitkov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Nikola Iliev0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Edson Silva0%
Emmanuel John0%
Pedro Igor0%
Aleksa Maraš0%
Ivaylo Videv0%
Samuil Tsonov0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
Levski Sofia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Reinaldo33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Everton Bala0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikola Serafimov33%
Everton Bala33%
Aldair33%
Juan Perea33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Reinaldo0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Maicon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Everton Bala33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Reinaldo0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Everton Bala0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Botev Plovdiv's squad is €27m less valuable than Levski Sofia's (€11m vs €38m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Botev Plovdiv's attack is €6m less valuable than Levski Sofia's (€5m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Botev Plovdiv's midfield is €6m less valuable than Levski Sofia's (€2m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Botev Plovdiv's defence is €14m less valuable than Levski Sofia's (€4m vs €19m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
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Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv