Botev Vratsa’s recent slump, ending with a 0-5 loss to CSKA Sofia, sets a grim backdrop for their home outing, while Botev Plovdiv, fresh from a 0-2 defeat to Ludogorets, still carries a modest attack. The model therefore picks a Home win at 35 %, with a Draw at 31 % and an Away win at 33 %. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.7 % chance. Botev Vratsa averages 1.27 goals scored and 0.82 conceded at home against similarly ranked teams; Botev Plovdiv averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3 % with a 5 % edge), Under 5.5 (97.3 % with a 4 % edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2 % with an 8 % edge).
Results analysis
The win extends Botev Vratsa’s run, ending a string of four defeats with a 1-0 triumph over Botev Plovdiv. The model’s favourite, a home win at 35 %, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted 1-0 outcome. The most likely total of two goals materialised, with the 1-1 and 0-0 draws the next most probable. Every suggested pick settled in: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8 %, Under 6.5 at 99.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.4 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3 %, Under 5.5 at 97.3 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2 %. The model’s selections performed consistently across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Botev Vratsa win✓ Hit
35.2%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.53
Edge
+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.82
Pinnacle
3.76
1xBet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Draw✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.18
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Dafabet
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Botev Plovdiv win✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.05
Edge
-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
1xBet
2.08
William Hil
2.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Botev Vratsa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.17
1.13
0.93
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.11
1.50
1.50
0.43
2.29
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.76
1.08
0.85
1.12
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Plovdiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
1.86
1.00
1.12
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.20
2.00
1.00
0.75
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.46
0.88
1.85
1.00
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
67.0%
@ 1.33-2.7%
Under 1.5
33.0%
@ 3.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.19
BetVictor
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.0%
@ 2.06-6.4%
Under 2.5
61.0%
@ 1.71+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
SBO
2.06
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
SBO
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
@ 3.64-6.5%
Under 3.5
81.0%
@ 1.25+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.90
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.9%
@ 1.82-3.7%
No
53.1%
@ 1.87+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
No
William Hil
1.91
Betfair
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Unibet
1.89
1xBet
1.87
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%@ 5.79+7.1%
0-0
11.9%@ 7.97+6.4%
1-0 ✓
10.8%@ 8.72+5.7%
0-1
10.3%@ 6.29+3.4%
2-1
7.6%@ 11.09+3.7%
1-2
7.4%@ 7.84+1.8%
2-0
6.9%@ 16.16+4.2%
0-2
6.4%@ 8.62+1.4%
Botev Vratsa goals ↓
Botev Plovdiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.4%
2.4%
0.7%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.7%
2
6.9%
7.6%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
3
2.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Botev Vratsa goals (down), columns = Botev Plovdiv goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Levski Sofia
3.00
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.50
Ludogorets
2.43
Arda Kardzhali
2.29
Spartak Varna
1.17
Septemvri Sofia
1.14
Botev Plovdiv
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Dunav Ruse
0.57
Cherno More Varna
0.57
Lokomotiv Sofia
0.50
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Botev Vratsa is 0.43 points worse than Botev Plovdiv in terms of average points per game (0.57 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levski Sofia
2.86
CSKA Sofia
2.67
CSKA 1948
2.17
Ludogorets
1.71
Arda Kardzhali
1.57
Spartak Varna
1.17
Lokomotiv Sofia
1.17
Botev Plovdiv
1.14
Cherno More Varna
1.14
Dunav Ruse
1.00
Slavia Sofia
1.00
Septemvri Sofia
0.71
Botev Vratsa
0.57
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.43
Botev Vratsa is 0.57 goals worse than Botev Plovdiv in terms of goals scored per game (0.57 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arda Kardzhali
0.57
Levski Sofia
0.57
CSKA Sofia
0.67
Ludogorets
0.71
CSKA 1948
0.83
Slavia Sofia
0.86
Septemvri Sofia
1.43
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.43
Botev Plovdiv
1.71
Spartak Varna
1.83
Dunav Ruse
2.00
Lokomotiv Sofia
2.00
Botev Vratsa
2.14
Cherno More Varna
2.29
Botev Vratsa is 0.43 goals worse than Botev Plovdiv in terms of goals conceded per game (2.14 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Levski Sofia
63%
Slavia Sofia
37%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Botev Vratsa
For 3.8 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Botev Plovdiv
For 4.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Botev Vratsa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.3
7.8
8.8
2.2
2.4
2.1
23.2
23.2
23.1
vs Stronger (14)
8.7
5.7
11.7
1.7
3.0
0.8
20.3
26.7
14.0
vs Similar (35)
8.2
8.5
7.8
2.5
2.2
2.9
24.1
22.2
26.1
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
32%
15%
50%
34%
40%
28%
60%
46%
75%
% under line
68%
85%
50%
66%
60%
72%
40%
54%
25%
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Plovdiv
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.9
2.4
3.2
1.6
22.2
22.9
21.5
vs Stronger (10)
9.7
8.3
11.0
2.9
4.0
2.2
22.2
22.7
21.7
vs Similar (39)
9.6
9.5
9.6
2.3
3.0
1.5
22.2
22.9
21.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
50%
54%
30%
42%
19%
67%
71%
62%
% under line
48%
50%
46%
70%
58%
81%
33%
29%
38%
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Slavia Sofia
10.3
Botev Plovdiv
10.2
Spartak Varna
10.1
CSKA Sofia
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.6
Ludogorets
9.4
Botev Vratsa
9.4
CSKA 1948
9.3
Lokomotiv Sofia
9.3
Cherno More Varna
9.0
Septemvri Sofia
9.0
Arda Kardzhali
8.7
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Arda Kardzhali
5.1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5.0
Septemvri Sofia
4.9
Cherno More Varna
4.9
Spartak Varna
4.9
Botev Vratsa
4.8
CSKA Sofia
4.8
Ludogorets
4.8
Slavia Sofia
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.6
Botev Plovdiv
4.5
CSKA 1948
4.2
Lokomotiv Sofia
4.1
Dunav Ruse
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cherno More Varna
25.3
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
25.1
Levski Sofia
24.7
Botev Vratsa
24.5
Arda Kardzhali
24.1
Slavia Sofia
23.8
Lokomotiv Sofia
23.8
Septemvri Sofia
23.0
Spartak Varna
22.9
CSKA 1948
22.7
Ludogorets
22.4
CSKA Sofia
22.3
Botev Plovdiv
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.4%
@ 2.00-5.9%
Under 9.5
59.6%
@ 1.73+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.4%
@ 1.69+6.5%
Under 3.5
39.6%
@ 1.98-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Under
Superbet
2.00
Betano
1.95
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.4%
Under 21.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Botev Vratsa or Draw✓ Hit
66.7%
Avg Implied 54.3% · @ 1.71
Edge
+12.4%
35%
31%
33%
covers Botev Vratsa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Botev Vratsa or Botev Plovdiv✓ Hit
68.6%
Avg Implied 71.8% · @ 1.29
Edge
-3.3%
35%
31%
33%
covers Botev Vratsa + Botev Plovdiv
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
888Sport
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Draw or Botev Plovdiv✗ Miss
64.8%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.26
Edge
-9.1%
35%
31%
33%
covers Draw + Botev Plovdiv
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.1%
@ 1.44+4.1%
Under
31.9%
@ 2.57-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.46
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Unibet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.6%
@ 3.21+2.8%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.30-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
888Sport
3.30
1xBet
3.26
BetVictor
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 8.60-0.0%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.05+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Botev Vratsa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 22.50-1.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.8%
@ 1.23-8.4%
Under
33.2%
@ 3.72+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.98
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
888Sport
3.75
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.2%
@ 2.16-12.6%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.63+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.24
BetVictor
2.20
888Sport
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Under
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 4.66-9.8%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.15+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.60
Unibet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Botev Plovdiv over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 11.19-5.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.04+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Botev Vratsa, so a minus line means Botev Vratsa give that many goals of a start and Botev Plovdiv receive them. At -1, Botev Vratsa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Botev Vratsa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Botev Vratsa)Actual: Botev Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa -2
4.8%
@ 21.00+0.4%
Draw -2
10.3%
@ 11.00+1.8%
Botev Plovdiv +2
84.9%
@ 1.07-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
1.07
Handicap -1 (Botev Vratsa)Actual: Draw
Botev Vratsa -1
15.1%
@ 7.41+3.0%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 5.00+2.3%
Botev Plovdiv +1
64.8%
@ 1.28-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.25
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
Handicap +1 (Botev Vratsa)Actual: Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa +1
66.7%
@ 1.71+14.7%
Draw +1
19.4%
@ 3.62-5.2%
Botev Plovdiv -1
13.9%
@ 3.81-9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.75
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.55
Away
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Handicap +2 (Botev Vratsa)Actual: Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa +2
86.1%
@ 1.21+11.9%
Draw +2
9.6%
@ 5.86-5.6%
Botev Plovdiv -2
4.3%
@ 8.53-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.65
Away
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
7.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Botev Vratsa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.40
0.27
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.89
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.86
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.19
0.31
0.15
0.62
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Plovdiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.79
0.29
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.38
0.85
0.31
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.6%
@ 1.42+2.3%
Under 0.5
32.4%
@ 2.67-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
William Hil
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.8%
@ 2.95-1.7%
Under 1.5
70.2%
@ 1.35+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.12
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Under
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 7.55-2.0%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.06+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Bet365
8.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Under
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.3%
@ 2.50+6.1%
Under
56.7%
@ 1.48-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.57
Marathonbet
2.55
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.40
Under
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 8.95+0.1%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.03-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.60
1xBet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.0%
@ 1.95-5.5%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.76+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.73
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 5.93-5.3%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.10+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
5.70
Betano
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 11.50-6.4%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Botev Vratsa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.50
0.50
0.43
1.43
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.57
0.77
0.69
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Plovdiv) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Botev Plovdiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
1.07
0.71
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
2.00
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.50
1.00
0.69
0.55
0.27
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Botev Vratsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.7%
@ 1.27+1.7%
Under 0.5
25.3%
@ 3.42-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.50
Superbet
3.40
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.0%
@ 2.25-0.2%
Under 1.5
59.0%
@ 1.58+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.27
William Hil
2.25
888Sport
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 4.91-4.0%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.14+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Botev Vratsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.0%
@ 2.09+5.8%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.66-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.11
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Botev Vratsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 6.67-0.3%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.08+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
6.80
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Botev Vratsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 12.00-5.2%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Botev Plovdiv over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.0%
@ 1.67-5.4%
Under
50.0%
@ 2.08+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Botev Plovdiv over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.2%
@ 4.17-6.1%
Under
83.8%
@ 1.20+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Botev Plovdiv over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 9.25-7.3%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.04+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
888Sport
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.08
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.14
888Sport
1.14
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.8%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.0%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.9%
1.25
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+7.7%
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.7%
1.27
Betano
1.29
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
+1.7%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
71.4%
1.44
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
+7.6%
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.35
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
William Hil
1.36
+1.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Botev Vratsa · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Martin Petkov24%
Mitchy Ntelo14%
Kassim Hadji14%
Martin Smolenski12%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Sainey Sanyang11%
Arian Kabashi11%
José Gallegos6%
Milen Stoev5%
Daniel Genov5%
Antoan Stoyanov5%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Kristiyan Malinov0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Aymen Souda0%
Romeesh Ivey0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mohamed Bukassi67%
Nikola Vlajković40%
Aymen Souda33%
Arian Kabashi33%
Ivan Goranov27%
Yoan Bornosuzov25%
Martin Petkov24%
Milen Stoev20%
Kristiyan Malinov20%
Dimitar Evtimov18%
Martin Smolenski18%
Vladislav Naydenov18%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski17%
Daniel Genov15%
Iliya Yurukov13%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Romeesh Ivey11%
Bozhidar Penchev11%
Antoan Stoyanov10%
José Gallegos6%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Martin Dichev0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Radoslav Tsonev18%
Martin Petkov12%
Vladislav Naydenov12%
José Gallegos11%
Kristiyan Malinov10%
Martin Smolenski6%
Daniel Genov5%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Milen Stoev0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Aymen Souda0%
Romeesh Ivey0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Antoan Stoyanov0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Arian Kabashi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Martin Petkov18%
Aymen Souda17%
Daniel Genov15%
Radoslav Tsonev12%
Romeesh Ivey11%
Martin Smolenski6%
Marin Orlinov0%
Martin Achkov0%
Milen Stoev0%
Bozhidar Chorbadzhiyski0%
Kristiyan Malinov0%
Ivan Goranov0%
Iliya Yurukov0%
Dimitar Evtimov0%
Martin Dichev0%
Nikola Vlajković0%
Mohamed Bukassi0%
José Gallegos0%
Vladislav Naydenov0%
Đorđe Jovičić0%
Mitchy Ntelo0%
Martin Stoychev0%
Kassim Hadji0%
Bozhidar Penchev0%
Danilo Gennadievich Polonsky0%
Antoan Stoyanov0%
Yoan Bornosuzov0%
Sainey Sanyang0%
Lazar Boyanov0%
Martin Stanislavov Bachev0%
Arian Kabashi0%
Botev Plovdiv · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Armstrong Oko-Flex50%
Franklin Mascote32%
Pedro Igor25%
Dimitar Mitkov17%
Nikolay Minkov15%
Carlos Algarra López11%
Edson Silva11%
Samuil Tsonov9%
Enock Kwateng8%
Lucas Araujo7%
Samuel Kalu6%
Ivaylo Videv6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Todor Nedelev5%
Daniel Naumov0%
Konstantinos Balogiannis0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Nikola Iliev0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Emmanuel John0%
Aleksa Maraš0%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Edson Silva56%
Antoine Conte43%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo38%
Dimitar Mitkov33%
Andrey Yordanov30%
Konstantinos Balogiannis25%
Gabriel Noga25%
Ivaylo Videv25%
Enock Kwateng23%
Carlos Algarra López22%
Lucas Araujo21%
Nikola Iliev21%
Simeon Petrov20%
Samuil Tsonov18%
Nikola Soldo18%
Emil Martinov17%
Aleksa Maraš14%
Armstrong Oko-Flex12%
Samuel Kalu12%
Stivan Petkov12%
Pedro Igor12%
Nikolay Minkov10%
Todor Nedelev5%
Daniel Naumov5%
Tailson0%
Franklin Mascote0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Emerson Rodríguez0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Emmanuel John0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Armstrong Oko-Flex25%
Zakaria Tindano20%
Aleksa Maraš14%
Konstantinos Balogiannis12%
Henrique Jocu11%
Todor Nedelev11%
Nikola Iliev11%
Nikolay Minkov10%
Emerson Rodríguez10%
Samuel Kalu6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Daniel Naumov0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Enock Kwateng0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Franklin Mascote0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Dimitar Mitkov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Lucas Araujo0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Edson Silva0%
Emmanuel John0%
Pedro Igor0%
Ivaylo Videv0%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo0%
Samuil Tsonov0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Samuel Kalu12%
Abraham Emmanuel Ojo12%
Todor Nedelev11%
Franklin Mascote11%
Emerson Rodríguez10%
Lucas Araujo7%
Konstantinos Balogiannis6%
Nikola Soldo6%
Nikolay Minkov5%
Daniel Naumov0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Tailson0%
Andrey Yordanov0%
Enock Kwateng0%
Stivan Petkov0%
Ivelin Popov0%
Dimitar Mitkov0%
Emil Martinov0%
Antoine Conte0%
Simeon Petrov0%
Carlos Algarra López0%
Nikola Iliev0%
Henrique Jocu0%
Bryan-Anthony Chibuike Hein0%
Gabriel Noga0%
Edson Silva0%
Emmanuel John0%
Pedro Igor0%
Aleksa Maraš0%
Ivaylo Videv0%
Samuil Tsonov0%
Williams Chimezie Oluebube0%
Emmanuel Abraham0%
Zakaria Tindano0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (29)
€46m
LS (27)
€38m
CS (25)
€26m
C1 (30)
€18m
BP (29)
€11m
AK (20)
€10m
LP (23)
€9m
LS (25)
€8m
SS (25)
€7m
CMV (22)
€6m
SV (22)
€6m
BV (23)
€6m
DR (22)
€4m
SS (20)
€3m
Botev Vratsa's squad is €6m less valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€6m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUD (12)
€27m
LS (10)
€11m
CS (9)
€10m
C1 (14)
€9m
BP (12)
€5m
AK (7)
€3m
LS (11)
€3m
CMV (8)
€3m
LP (8)
€3m
SS (11)
€2m
BV (8)
€2m
SV (7)
€2m
DR (6)
€1m
SS (8)
€1m
Botev Vratsa's attack is €3m less valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (5)
€8m
CS (6)
€6m
LUD (4)
€6m
AK (3)
€3m
LS (6)
€2m
C1 (4)
€2m
BP (6)
€2m
LP (5)
€2m
SS (4)
€2m
BV (5)
€1m
CMV (5)
€1m
DR (5)
€1m
SV (4)
€1m
SS (4)
€1m
Botev Vratsa and Botev Plovdiv have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LS (12)
€19m
LUD (13)
€13m
CS (10)
€10m
C1 (12)
€7m
BP (11)
€4m
LP (10)
€4m
AK (10)
€3m
SS (10)
€3m
LS (8)
€3m
SV (11)
€3m
CMV (9)
€2m
BV (10)
€2m
DR (11)
€2m
SS (8)
€2m
Botev Vratsa's defence is €2m less valuable than Botev Plovdiv's (€2m vs €4m).
Bulgaria: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Levski Sofia
Ludogorets
CSKA Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
CSKA 1948
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse
Cherno More Varna
Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv