Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna Result & Analysis

The defensive figures set the tone: Botev Vratsa have conceded just 0.38 goals per home match against similar opposition, while Cherno More Varna have allowed 0.88 away, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair. The model favours a draw, with a 38% chance of a stalemate, 27% for a home win and 35% for an away win. The expected total is 1.5 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, a 22.5% probability. Botev Vratsa’s home form shows 0.88 goals scored and 0.38 conceded, whereas Cherno More Varna’s away form mirrors that with 0.88 scored and 0.88 conceded against similar teams.

The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 95.6%, Over 19.5 fouls at 95.0%, Under 3.5 at 92.8% (hit), Over 21.5 fouls at 89.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 88.5% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 82.4% (hit), Under 2.5 at 79.6% (hit) and Over 23.5 fouls at 79.4%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and no other outcome is given a win probability.

The upset came early as Cherno More Varna, still riding a win, overturned the pre-match favourite, the model’s Draw at 38 percent, with a 0-2 victory. The model’s call was wrong, as the match finished with an away win. The model’s selection for Over 2.5 cards at 95.6 percent hit, while Under 3.5 at 92.8 percent also hit. Over 3.5 cards at 88.5 percent missed, Under 11.5 corners at 82.4 percent hit, and Under 2.5 at 79.6 percent hit. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away side’s triumph, leaving the predicted draw incorrect.