Bournemouth are tipped to edge Brentford at the Vitality Stadium, with the model picking a home win and a 2-goal total. The average goal count sits at 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% chance. Bournemouth’s home form shows 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Brentford’s away numbers are 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. The probabilities are 42% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 29% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 7% edge), Under 6.5 (98.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.9% with a 7% edge), Under 5.5 (95.8% with a 6% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.7% with a 6% edge). The match should be a tight contest with a modest goal tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bournemouth win
42.3%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.57
Edge
+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.61
Dafabet
2.60
Betano
2.60
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.50
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.66
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Brentford win
28.5%
Avg Implied 36.6% · @ 2.57
Edge
-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Dafabet
2.60
William Hil
2.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bournemouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.37
1.47
1.27
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.80
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.28
1.33
1.08
1.54
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.62
1.00
1.65
1.24
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
1.00
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.73
1.09
1.67
1.00
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.33
-
-
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.5%
@ 1.21-5.1%
Under 1.5
27.5%
@ 4.18+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.6%
@ 1.66-11.3%
Under 2.5
54.4%
@ 2.19+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.2%
@ 2.61-11.7%
Under 3.5
75.8%
@ 1.47+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
Both teams to score
Yes
51.6%
@ 1.53-9.1%
No
48.4%
@ 2.36+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.55
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
No
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
William Hil
2.38
Betano
2.37
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.64+7.1%
1-0
10.2%@ 9.94+5.6%
0-0
9.5%@ 12.38+5.8%
2-1
8.8%@ 9.02+3.8%
2-0
8.0%@ 13.55+4.6%
0-1
7.8%@ 9.91+3.2%
1-2
7.0%@ 9.16+2.0%
0-2
5.0%@ 13.59+1.7%
Bournemouth goals ↓
Brentford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
7.8%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
7.0%
2.6%
0.7%
2
8.0%
8.8%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.7%
4.1%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bournemouth goals (down), columns = Brentford goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brentford
1.39
Brighton
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Bournemouth is 0.11 points better than Brentford in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Bournemouth is 0.08 goals better than Brentford in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Bournemouth is 0.05 goals worse than Brentford in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.37).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Bournemouth is 2.7 percentage points better than Brentford in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bournemouth
For 5.4 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brentford
For 5.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 8.8 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bournemouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.2
11.0
4.4
4.2
4.5
23.2
23.2
23.2
vs Stronger (9)
10.8
13.0
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.7
21.0
19.3
21.8
vs Similar (40)
10.6
9.9
11.5
4.6
4.5
4.7
23.7
23.7
23.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
58%
62%
62%
56%
68%
60%
58%
62%
% under line
40%
42%
38%
38%
44%
32%
40%
42%
38%
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
8.9
10.7
3.4
3.0
3.8
19.8
20.1
19.6
vs Stronger (9)
10.3
8.8
11.6
4.3
5.0
3.8
18.2
19.5
17.2
vs Similar (37)
10.0
8.9
10.9
3.4
2.6
4.1
20.4
20.2
20.5
vs Weaker (4)
8.5
-
8.5
2.2
-
2.2
18.2
-
18.2
% over line
61%
52%
68%
46%
41%
50%
35%
43%
29%
% under line
39%
48%
32%
54%
59%
50%
65%
57%
71%
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
63.0%
@ 1.46+0.0%
Under 9.5
37.0%
@ 2.48-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.46
Under
Unibet
2.48
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.4%
Under 3.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
45.2%
Under 21.5
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bournemouth or Draw
71.5%
Avg Implied 63.5% · @ 1.48
Edge
+8.0%
42%
29%
29%
covers Bournemouth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Bournemouth or Brentford
70.8%
Avg Implied 73.2% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.4%
42%
29%
29%
covers Bournemouth + Brentford
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Brentford
57.7%
Avg Implied 63.3% · @ 1.49
Edge
-5.6%
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Brentford
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bournemouth over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
@ 1.22-0.8%
Under
24.8%
@ 3.86+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.14
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
1xBet
3.82
10Bet
3.80
Bournemouth over/under 1.5
Over
40.6%
@ 2.12-3.6%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.67+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Unibet
1.67
Bournemouth over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
@ 4.55-4.0%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.17+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Bournemouth over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
@ 10.25-3.8%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Brentford over/under 0.5
Over
66.9%
@ 1.22-9.5%
Under
33.1%
@ 3.94+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Betano
3.85
Brentford over/under 1.5
Over
30.3%
@ 2.10-14.2%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.68+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Brentford over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
@ 4.51-10.6%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.17+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Brentford over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
@ 10.35-6.5%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bournemouth, so a minus line means Bournemouth give that many goals of a start and Brentford receive them. At -1, Bournemouth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bournemouth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bournemouth)
Bournemouth -2
7.7%
@ 10.92-0.5%
Draw -2
13.0%
@ 7.19+0.4%
Brentford +2
79.3%
@ 1.14+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Away
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Handicap -1 (Bournemouth)
Bournemouth -1
20.7%
@ 4.78+1.9%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 4.29+0.7%
Brentford +1
57.7%
@ 1.48-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.50
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Bournemouth)
Bournemouth +1
71.5%
@ 1.49+11.2%
Draw +1
16.8%
@ 4.29-4.1%
Brentford -1
11.7%
@ 4.80-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Handicap +2 (Bournemouth)
Bournemouth +2
88.3%
@ 1.14+9.5%
Draw +2
8.1%
@ 7.14-4.5%
Brentford -2
3.5%
@ 10.52-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bournemouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.60
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.56
0.42
0.42
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.77
0.46
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.2%
@ 1.32-3.8%
Under 0.5
32.8%
@ 3.25+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.24
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
31.5%
@ 2.46-6.4%
Under 1.5
68.5%
@ 1.50+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Under
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.1%
@ 5.94-5.6%
Under 2.5
89.9%
@ 1.11+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bournemouth over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.8%
@ 1.94-1.1%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.78+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Under
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Bournemouth over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.7%
@ 5.81-4.3%
Under
88.3%
@ 1.10+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
5.85
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Bournemouth over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
@ 11.25-6.1%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Brentford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.3%
@ 1.92-9.0%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.79+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Unibet
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Brentford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.6%
@ 5.74-6.5%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.10+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Brentford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 11.75-6.6%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bournemouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.72
0.92
0.67
0.92
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brentford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.85
0.54
0.88
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
-
-
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.18-1.3%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 4.54+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.6%
@ 1.85-8.9%
Under 1.5
58.4%
@ 1.89+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 3.65-10.3%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.25+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
10Bet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bournemouth over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.8%
@ 1.64-3.9%
Under
47.2%
@ 2.15+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Bournemouth over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.9%
@ 4.01-4.1%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.20+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Bournemouth over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.5%
@ 9.00-5.8%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.04+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Brentford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.6%
@ 1.62-10.5%
Under
53.4%
@ 2.17+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Brentford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.3%
@ 4.03-8.7%
Under
85.7%
@ 1.20+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Brentford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.1%
@ 9.00-7.3%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.04+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+6.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+6.5%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
+6.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.9%
1.17
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
+10.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
+5.6%
Under 4.5
89.1%
1.16
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+9.0%
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+9.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
+4.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-
+8.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+10.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
83.5%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
+4.0%
Under 25.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-
+4.1%
Away +2 handicap
79.3%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
+0.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.18
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-1.3%
Under 5.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.8%
1.47
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.45
+11.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
75.2%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.8%
Over 8.5 corners
74.4%
1.27
Unibet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+2.1%
Over 1.5
72.5%
1.21
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.20
-5.1%
Home or Draw
71.5%
1.48
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
+8.0%
Home +1 handicap
71.5%
1.49
Marathonbet
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
+11.2%
Home or Away
70.8%
1.28
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
-2.4%
Under 23.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bournemouth · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Antoine Semenyo38%
Eli Junior Kroupi34%
Rayan33%
Marcus Tavernier23%
Evanilson16%
Alex Scott10%
Justin Kluivert10%
Amine Adli9%
Tyler Adams8%
Ryan Christie7%
David Brooks6%
Enes Ünal4%
Álex Jiménez3%
Adrien Truffert3%
Marcos Senesi0%
Adam Smith0%
Lewis Cook0%
James Hill0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Álex Jiménez31%
Tyler Adams31%
Antoine Semenyo29%
Justin Kluivert24%
Marcos Senesi21%
Marcus Tavernier20%
Julio Soler20%
David Brooks18%
James Hill16%
Alex Scott15%
Eli Junior Kroupi14%
Adam Smith13%
Adrien Truffert13%
Ryan Christie11%
Alex Tóth11%
Lewis Cook11%
Đorđe Petrović10%
Amine Adli9%
Rayan7%
Bafodé Diakité5%
Enes Ünal4%
Evanilson3%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antoine Semenyo14%
Rayan13%
Marcos Senesi13%
Adrien Truffert13%
Marcus Tavernier11%
Ben Gannon-Doak11%
James Hill10%
David Brooks9%
Adam Smith9%
Tyler Adams8%
Lewis Cook5%
Evanilson5%
Álex Jiménez3%
Amine Adli3%
Alex Scott3%
Justin Kluivert0%
Ryan Christie0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Enes Ünal0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Eli Junior Kroupi0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antoine Semenyo29%
Evanilson21%
Marcus Tavernier20%
David Brooks12%
Eli Junior Kroupi9%
Rayan7%
Alex Scott5%
James Hill3%
Justin Kluivert0%
Ryan Christie0%
Tyler Adams0%
Marcos Senesi0%
Adam Smith0%
Lewis Cook0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Enes Ünal0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Amine Adli0%
Adrien Truffert0%
Álex Jiménez0%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Brentford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Wilson33%
Mikkel Damsgaard33%
Nathan Collins33%
Vitaly Janelt33%
Aaron Hickey33%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaly Janelt67%
Nathan Collins33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sangare67%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Yehor Yarmoliuk33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Nathan Collins0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Collins33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Bournemouth's squad is €7m more valuable than Brentford's (€573m vs €565m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Bournemouth's attack is €57m more valuable than Brentford's (€285m vs €228m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Bournemouth's midfield is €22m less valuable than Brentford's (€106m vs €128m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Bournemouth's defence is €28m less valuable than Brentford's (€182m vs €209m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham