Bournemouth are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 43 % chance of victory, a 30 % chance of a draw and a 27 % chance of an Everton win. The match is expected to see about 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.3 % chance. Bournemouth’s home form shows they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded against opponents of similar strength, while Everton’s away numbers are 1.56 scored and 1.11 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 % with a 4 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2 % with a 6 % edge), Under 5.5 (96.8 % with a 5 % edge), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.9 % with a 7 % edge). The match is set for a tight contest, with both sides looking to break the deadlock.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Bournemouth, failed to deliver as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s home-win call incorrect. Bournemouth entered the game coming off a draw, while Everton also finished their last five with a draw, both teams looking for momentum. The model had given a 43% chance for a home win, a 30% chance for a draw and 27% for an Everton win, and it was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled and hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (96.8%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%). The expected total of 2.3 goals was close to the actual total of two, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 confirmed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bournemouth win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied 45.3% · @ 2.10
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Dafabet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Draw✓ Hit
30.2%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.45
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.54
Pinnacle
3.52
Betfair
3.50
Everton win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.52
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.69
1xBet
3.68
Betano
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Bet365
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bournemouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.50
1.29
1.44
1.62
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
1.80
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.40
1.36
1.09
1.43
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.47
1.53
1.33
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.22
1.40
1.40
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.35
1.50
1.60
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.0%
@ 1.29-4.2%
Under 1.5
31.0%
@ 3.54+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Under
Unibet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.4%
@ 1.94-8.0%
Under 2.5
58.6%
@ 1.89+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.50
1xBet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
SBO
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.99
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
SBO
1.95
Betano
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.8%
@ 3.37-7.4%
Under 3.5
79.2%
@ 1.32+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
Under
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.9%
@ 1.75-5.9%
No
52.1%
@ 2.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Bet365
1.70
No
Unibet
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.2%@ 6.32+6.5%
1-0
11.6%@ 7.50+5.2%
0-0
11.0%@ 11.03+6.6%
2-0
8.7%@ 9.83+3.7%
2-1
8.6%@ 8.23+2.7%
0-1
8.4%@ 10.19+3.6%
1-2
6.4%@ 11.21+2.1%
0-2
4.8%@ 17.30+2.0%
Bournemouth goals ↓
Everton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.4%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.7%
8.6%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.9%
3.9%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bournemouth goals (down), columns = Everton goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Bournemouth is 0.21 points better than Everton in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Bournemouth is 0.29 goals better than Everton in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Bournemouth is 0.11 goals worse than Everton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Bournemouth is 6.3 percentage points better than Everton in terms of average possession (50% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bournemouth
For 5.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.5 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Everton
For 4.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 8.6 · Total 18.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bournemouth
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.2
11.0
4.5
4.4
4.6
23.3
23.2
23.3
vs Stronger (9)
10.8
13.0
9.7
3.8
4.0
3.7
21.0
19.3
21.8
vs Similar (41)
10.6
9.8
11.5
4.7
4.4
4.9
23.8
23.8
23.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
60%
64%
64%
56%
72%
60%
56%
64%
% under line
38%
40%
36%
36%
44%
28%
40%
44%
36%
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.8
9.4
3.5
3.9
3.1
21.5
21.6
21.5
vs Stronger (14)
10.4
9.9
11.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
20.5
18.0
23.0
vs Similar (34)
8.7
8.6
8.9
3.9
4.1
3.8
22.5
23.4
21.6
vs Weaker (2)
7.0
6.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.0
15.0
9.0
% over line
38%
28%
48%
46%
56%
36%
56%
52%
60%
% under line
62%
72%
52%
54%
44%
64%
44%
48%
40%
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.0
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.4
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Chelsea
10.0
Tottenham
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Brighton
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Everton
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.5
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Hull
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Brentford
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Everton
3.6
Coventry
3.6
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.3
Chelsea
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.3
Leeds
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Manchester United
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Everton
21.5
Coventry
21.3
Liverpool
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.0
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.7%
@ 1.59-5.7%
Under 9.5
47.3%
@ 2.23+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.64
Betfair
1.60
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.27
Marathonbet
2.23
Betfair
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.6%
@ 1.66-1.6%
Under 3.5
45.4%
@ 2.13+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.63
Under
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.6%
@ 1.67-5.5%
Under 21.5
50.4%
@ 2.05+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Under
Superbet
2.05
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bournemouth or Draw✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 72.9% · @ 1.29
Edge
+0.5%
43%
30%
27%
covers Bournemouth + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Bournemouth or Everton✗ Miss
69.8%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.29
Edge
-3.0%
43%
30%
27%
covers Bournemouth + Everton
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw or Everton✓ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied 54.3% · @ 1.73
Edge
+2.5%
43%
30%
27%
covers Draw + Everton
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
SBO
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bournemouth over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.8%
@ 1.20-4.4%
Under
26.2%
@ 4.28+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.53
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Bournemouth over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.7%
@ 2.02-7.9%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.76+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.79
Unibet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Bournemouth over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 4.26-6.8%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.20+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.44
Marathonbet
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Bournemouth over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 9.63-5.0%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Everton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.1%
@ 1.38-4.3%
Under
36.9%
@ 2.86+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.04
Unibet
2.95
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Everton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.4%
@ 2.88-6.2%
Under
73.6%
@ 1.39+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Under
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
Everton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 7.25-4.9%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.07+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.70
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
Everton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 17.83-3.5%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bournemouth, so a minus line means Bournemouth give that many goals of a start and Everton receive them. At -1, Bournemouth must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bournemouth win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bournemouth)Actual: Everton
Bournemouth -2
7.6%
@ 9.47-2.1%
Draw -2
13.2%
@ 6.21-1.6%
Everton +2
79.2%
@ 1.22+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
15.00
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.10
Draw
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
6.25
Superbet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (Bournemouth)Actual: Everton
Bournemouth -1
20.8%
@ 3.95-2.3%
Draw -1
22.4%
@ 3.86-1.1%
Everton +1
56.8%
@ 1.71+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
Draw
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.72
Handicap +1 (Bournemouth)Actual: Bournemouth
Bournemouth +1
73.4%
@ 1.28+2.5%
Draw +1
16.4%
@ 5.16-1.2%
Everton -1
10.2%
@ 7.93-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
10Bet
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Superbet
7.20
Handicap +2 (Bournemouth)Actual: Bournemouth
Bournemouth +2
89.8%
@ 1.06+2.3%
Draw +2
7.4%
@ 11.00-1.1%
Everton -2
2.9%
@ 23.00-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Draw
10Bet
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.00
Away
10Bet
34.00
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
21.00
Unibet
16.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bournemouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.57
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.60
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.64
0.36
0.45
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.53
0.60
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.22
0.56
0.20
0.60
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.55
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.4%
@ 1.38-1.1%
Under 0.5
32.6%
@ 2.99+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.16
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Superbet
3.05
William Hil
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.4%
@ 2.73-3.0%
Under 1.5
68.6%
@ 1.43+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.83
1xBet
2.81
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.2%
@ 6.91-4.4%
Under 2.5
90.8%
@ 1.08+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bournemouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.7%
@ 1.85-1.6%
Under
51.3%
@ 1.87+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Bournemouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 5.39-5.7%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.12+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.85
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Bournemouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 13.38-4.9%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Everton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.8%
@ 2.33-1.1%
Under
61.2%
@ 1.55+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.34
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Under
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
Everton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 8.10-3.1%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.05+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.20
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.50
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Everton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 20.50-3.5%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bournemouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.93
0.79
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.76
1.00
0.64
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
0.93
0.93
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.67
1.20
0.80
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bournemouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.22-0.2%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 3.99+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 2.06-4.8%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 1.74+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.10
William Hil
2.05
Under
Unibet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 4.38-6.8%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.19+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bournemouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.4%
@ 1.61-3.4%
Under
45.6%
@ 2.21+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Under
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.17
Bournemouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 3.91-3.4%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.22+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Bournemouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 9.88-5.6%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.04+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Everton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.9%
@ 1.95-3.7%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.77+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Under
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Everton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 5.85-4.5%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.10+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.60
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Everton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 14.75-4.1%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Unibet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.03
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.2%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.09
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.07
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.04
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.3%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.8%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.24
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
79.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.2%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.3%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.7%
1.27
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.8%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.6%
1.39
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.4%
1.29
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.4%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
1.47
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
+7.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bournemouth · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Antoine Semenyo38%
Eli Junior Kroupi34%
Rayan33%
Marcus Tavernier23%
Evanilson16%
Alex Scott10%
Justin Kluivert10%
Amine Adli9%
Tyler Adams8%
Ryan Christie7%
David Brooks6%
Enes Ünal4%
Álex Jiménez3%
Adrien Truffert3%
Marcos Senesi0%
Adam Smith0%
Lewis Cook0%
James Hill0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Álex Jiménez31%
Tyler Adams31%
Antoine Semenyo29%
Justin Kluivert24%
Marcos Senesi21%
Marcus Tavernier20%
Julio Soler20%
David Brooks18%
James Hill16%
Alex Scott15%
Eli Junior Kroupi14%
Adam Smith13%
Adrien Truffert13%
Ryan Christie11%
Alex Tóth11%
Lewis Cook11%
Đorđe Petrović10%
Amine Adli9%
Rayan7%
Bafodé Diakité5%
Enes Ünal4%
Evanilson3%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Antoine Semenyo14%
Rayan13%
Marcos Senesi13%
Adrien Truffert13%
Marcus Tavernier11%
Ben Gannon-Doak11%
James Hill10%
David Brooks9%
Adam Smith9%
Tyler Adams8%
Lewis Cook5%
Evanilson5%
Álex Jiménez3%
Amine Adli3%
Alex Scott3%
Justin Kluivert0%
Ryan Christie0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Enes Ünal0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Eli Junior Kroupi0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Antoine Semenyo29%
Evanilson21%
Marcus Tavernier20%
David Brooks12%
Eli Junior Kroupi9%
Rayan7%
Alex Scott5%
James Hill3%
Justin Kluivert0%
Ryan Christie0%
Tyler Adams0%
Marcos Senesi0%
Adam Smith0%
Lewis Cook0%
Bafodé Diakité0%
Enes Ünal0%
Đorđe Petrović0%
Amine Adli0%
Adrien Truffert0%
Álex Jiménez0%
Ben Gannon-Doak0%
Alex Tóth0%
Julio Soler0%
Veljko Milosavljević0%
Everton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thierno Barry67%
James Tarkowski33%
Brennan Johnson33%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall33%
James Garner0%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James Garner33%
Carlos Alcaraz33%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Brennan Johnson0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Thierno Barry0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Mykolenko33%
Iliman Ndiaye33%
Brennan Johnson33%
Thierno Barry33%
Harrison Armstrong33%
James Garner0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thierno Barry67%
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall33%
James Garner0%
Vitaliy Mykolenko0%
Jordan Pickford0%
James Tarkowski0%
Iliman Ndiaye0%
Brennan Johnson0%
Carlos Alcaraz0%
Merlin Röhl0%
Tyrique George0%
Harrison Armstrong0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Bournemouth's squad is €114m more valuable than Everton's (€573m vs €459m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Bournemouth's attack is €111m more valuable than Everton's (€285m vs €174m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Bournemouth's midfield is €56m less valuable than Everton's (€106m vs €162m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Bournemouth's defence is €58m more valuable than Everton's (€182m vs €123m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham