Brann and Lillestrom face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring an away win. The probability split is 35% for a Brann victory, 27% for a draw and 37% for Lillestrom. The average number of goals expected is 2.9, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance.
Brann, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Lillestrom, on the road, averages 1.22 goals scored and only 0.44 conceded. Brann’s recent form shows an unbeaten run of five, ending 0-0 against Sandefjord, while Lillestrom returns from a 1-4 loss to Fredrikstad.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.6%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.0%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.6%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brann win
35.5%
Avg Implied 50.9% · @ 1.83
Edge
-15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.85
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.09
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.94
Unibet
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Lillestrom win
37.2%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.75
Edge
+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.93
Dafabet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Pinnacle
3.84
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brann
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.37
1.69
1.38
1.88
1.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
1.53
2.00
1.60
1.60
1.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.87
1.20
1.50
1.25
2.29
1.14
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.13
2.20
1.27
1.53
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
3.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (18)
1.83
0.83
2.44
1.22
1.22
0.44
vs Weaker (8)
2.75
0.88
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Brann) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.0%
@ 1.13-3.5%
Under 1.5
21.0%
@ 5.34+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.72
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
Unibet
5.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.47-9.0%
Under 2.5
45.6%
@ 2.54+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.64
10Bet
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.1%
@ 2.19-10.9%
Under 3.5
67.9%
@ 1.65+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Both teams to score
Yes
59.0%
@ 1.45-4.7%
No
41.0%
@ 2.54+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
No
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 7.60+7.0%
1-2
8.5%@ 11.73+4.7%
2-1
8.3%@ 7.92+2.6%
0-1
7.2%@ 14.96+4.2%
1-0
6.9%@ 10.01+2.4%
0-0
6.9%@ 16.17+4.1%
0-2
6.0%@ 22.80+4.1%
2-2
6.0%@ 10.76+1.8%
Brann goals ↓
Lillestrom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
7.2%
6.0%
2.9%
1.1%
1
6.9%
13%
8.5%
4.1%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.3%
6.0%
2.9%
1.0%
3
2.7%
3.9%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brann goals (down), columns = Lillestrom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.44
Viking
2.39
Tromso
1.94
Molde
1.67
Fredrikstad
1.44
Lillestrom
1.44
Brann
1.44
Rosenborg
1.33
Ham-Kam
1.28
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Valerenga
1.17
KFUM Oslo
1.06
Sandefjord
1.06
Kristiansund BK
0.89
Aalesund
0.83
Start
0.72
Brann and Lillestrom are level in average points per game (both 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.61
Viking
2.33
Molde
2.00
Brann
2.00
Tromso
1.89
Valerenga
1.72
Aalesund
1.56
Rosenborg
1.50
Ham-Kam
1.44
Lillestrom
1.33
Fredrikstad
1.22
KFUM Oslo
1.11
Start
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.11
Kristiansund BK
0.94
Sandefjord
0.83
Brann is 0.67 goals better than Lillestrom in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.78
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.11
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.28
Sandefjord
1.28
Lillestrom
1.39
Rosenborg
1.44
Brann
1.50
Fredrikstad
1.56
Molde
1.61
Kristiansund BK
1.61
KFUM Oslo
1.72
Ham-Kam
1.78
Valerenga
2.11
Start
2.17
Aalesund
2.39
Brann is 0.11 goals worse than Lillestrom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
64%
Brann
59%
Molde
58%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
50%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Ham-Kam
48%
Fredrikstad
47%
KFUM Oslo
46%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Brann is 5.9 percentage points better than Lillestrom in terms of average possession (59% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brann
For 5.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lillestrom
For 5.9 · Against 6.1 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brann
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.0
11.3
3.5
3.6
3.5
24.1
22.8
25.3
vs Stronger (3)
11.3
9.5
15.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
19.0
19.0
19.0
vs Similar (24)
11.1
10.9
11.3
3.6
3.6
3.6
24.1
24.4
23.9
vs Weaker (23)
11.1
11.4
10.8
3.6
3.8
3.4
24.8
22.2
28.4
% over line
73%
73%
73%
56%
52%
59%
61%
55%
68%
% under line
27%
27%
27%
44%
48%
41%
39%
45%
32%
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.7
11.1
1.7
2.1
1.3
25.1
25.9
24.2
vs Stronger (4)
11.0
10.5
12.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
27.3
27.5
27.0
vs Similar (23)
10.9
11.0
10.8
2.5
2.3
2.7
24.7
25.3
24.2
vs Weaker (23)
11.0
10.0
13.0
0.8
1.6
0.2
24.3
26.0
21.0
% over line
70%
50%
90%
22%
29%
15%
65%
70%
60%
% under line
30%
50%
10%
78%
71%
85%
35%
30%
40%
This opponent (Brann) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Aalesund
12.1
Viking
12.0
Valerenga
11.9
Rosenborg
11.3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.2
Brann
11.1
Bodo/Glimt
10.9
Sandefjord
10.9
Lillestrom
10.6
Ham-Kam
10.4
Kristiansund BK
10.3
Molde
10.1
Fredrikstad
9.9
Start
9.2
KFUM Oslo
9.0
Tromso
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.2
Molde
4.2
Start
4.1
Lillestrom
4.0
Brann
4.0
Rosenborg
4.0
Valerenga
4.0
KFUM Oslo
3.8
Sandefjord
3.7
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.3
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.2
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
25.5
Viking
24.5
Rosenborg
24.4
Valerenga
24.1
Brann
24.0
Tromso
23.9
Start
23.6
Ham-Kam
23.2
Molde
23.0
Lillestrom
22.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.6
Kristiansund BK
22.0
KFUM Oslo
21.8
Aalesund
21.6
Fredrikstad
20.9
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
69.5%
@ 1.42+5.0%
Under 9.5
30.5%
@ 2.59-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.40
Under
Marathonbet
2.73
Unibet
2.65
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.52
Superbet
2.50
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.6%
Under 3.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
66.7%
Under 21.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brann or Draw
62.8%
Avg Implied 75.4% · @ 1.24
Edge
-12.6%
35%
27%
37%
covers Brann + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Brann or Lillestrom
72.7%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.22
Edge
-3.8%
35%
27%
37%
covers Brann + Lillestrom
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Draw or Lillestrom
64.5%
Avg Implied 48.2% · @ 1.94
Edge
+16.3%
35%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Lillestrom
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.97
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.95
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Brann over/under 0.5
Over
75.6%
@ 1.10-8.5%
Under
24.4%
@ 5.81+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Superbet
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
Brann over/under 1.5
Over
41.1%
@ 1.59-17.4%
Under
58.9%
@ 2.25+17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
10Bet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.26
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Brann over/under 2.5
Over
16.9%
@ 2.83-16.0%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.39+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Brann over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
@ 5.80-10.6%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.11+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.90
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Lillestrom over/under 0.5
Over
76.5%
@ 1.28+4.2%
Under
23.5%
@ 3.35-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.51
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Lillestrom over/under 1.5
Over
42.4%
@ 2.39+3.3%
Under
57.6%
@ 1.53-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
1xBet
2.41
Marathonbet
2.41
Superbet
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
BetVictor
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Lillestrom over/under 2.5
Over
17.8%
@ 5.49+0.9%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.12-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Lillestrom over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
@ 13.50-1.1%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.02+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Brann, so a minus line means Brann give that many goals of a start and Lillestrom receive them. At -1, Brann must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Brann win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Brann)
Brann -2
6.2%
@ 5.66-9.6%
Draw -2
10.7%
@ 5.15-6.7%
Lillestrom +2
83.1%
@ 1.34+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.55
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap -1 (Brann)
Brann -1
16.9%
@ 2.95-13.3%
Draw -1
18.5%
@ 3.80-4.9%
Lillestrom +1
64.5%
@ 1.92+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.88
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Away
Unibet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Handicap +1 (Brann)
Brann +1
62.8%
@ 1.24-9.3%
Draw +1
19.1%
@ 5.60+3.1%
Lillestrom -1
18.1%
@ 7.53+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Superbet
5.55
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Away
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
6.90
Handicap +2 (Brann)
Brann +2
81.9%
@ 1.08-5.3%
Draw +2
11.3%
@ 12.00+3.5%
Lillestrom -2
6.8%
@ 19.00+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Away
Bet365
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brann
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.77
0.69
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.53
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.67
0.75
0.88
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.56
1.00
0.78
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.25
0.75
0.25
1.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Brann) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.8%
@ 1.24-5.0%
Under 0.5
30.2%
@ 3.67+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.0%
@ 2.13-8.7%
Under 1.5
65.0%
@ 1.65+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 4.70-7.2%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.15+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
Superbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Under
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brann over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.0%
@ 1.59-2.4%
Under
44.0%
@ 2.24+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Unibet
1.56
Under
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.30
Unibet
2.23
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.20
Brann over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.7%
@ 3.84-4.3%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.22+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.95
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Brann over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.5%
@ 9.25-5.5%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.1%
@ 2.07-8.7%
Under
63.9%
@ 1.68+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Unibet
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
@ 6.42-7.0%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.08+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
Betano
6.40
Superbet
6.40
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
@ 17.75-4.0%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brann
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.92
0.69
0.88
0.82
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.20
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.53
0.75
0.38
1.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lillestrom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.57
1.40
0.60
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.28
1.44
0.44
0.89
0.11
vs Weaker (8)
1.50
0.62
1.75
0.75
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Brann) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.8%
@ 1.13-1.4%
Under 0.5
19.2%
@ 5.22+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betano
5.30
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Superbet
5.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.1%
@ 1.68-7.2%
Under 1.5
51.9%
@ 2.08+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.72
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Unibet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.0%
@ 3.08-9.1%
Under 2.5
79.0%
@ 1.33+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
William Hil
3.20
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.98
Under
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brann over/under 0.5 2H
Over
66.4%
@ 1.41+0.3%
Under
33.6%
@ 2.74-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
Betano
2.77
1xBet
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Superbet
2.65
Brann over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.9%
@ 2.86-4.5%
Under
72.1%
@ 1.37+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.00
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.84
Betano
2.80
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Brann over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.8%
@ 7.03-4.4%
Under
91.2%
@ 1.07+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.50
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.5%
@ 1.73-11.3%
Under
57.5%
@ 2.01+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Under
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.6%
@ 4.56-9.7%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.16+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.80
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 11.50-6.1%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+6.1%
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.02
+4.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
+10.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
94.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+1.1%
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+7.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+7.0%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+4.4%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.4%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+9.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.15
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
+7.2%
Under 4.5
83.9%
1.25
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+9.5%
Under 5.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.1%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.41
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
+16.0%
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+16.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
82.2%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-0.9%
Home +2 handicap
81.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.13
William Hil
1.15
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.11
-1.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.3%
1.22
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
+4.3%
Over 8.5 corners
79.7%
1.23
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.5%
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
-3.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
+9.1%
Away over 0.5 goals
76.5%
1.28
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+4.2%
Home over 0.5 goals
75.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
-8.5%
Home or Away
72.7%
1.22
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
-3.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
72.1%
1.37
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
+4.5%
Over 2.5 cards
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brann
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Niklas Castro33%
Noah Jean Holm33%
Kristian Eriksen29%
Bård Finne25%
Joachim Soltvedt22%
Kristall Máni Ingason20%
Markus Haaland20%
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson17%
Rasmus Holten17%
Felix Horn Myhre13%
Denzel De Roeve8%
Vetle Winger Dragsnes7%
Ulrik Mathisen6%
Rabbi Matondo0%
Jacob Lungi Sørensen0%
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen0%
Thore Pedersen0%
Matias Dyngeland0%
Sævar Atli Magnússon0%
Eggert Aron Guðmundsson0%
Simen Vidtun Nilsen0%
Niklas Jensen Wassberg0%
Jonas Torsvik0%
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson0%
Martin Hellan0%
Cheick Mbacke Diop0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Niklas Castro50%
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson33%
Cheick Mbacke Diop33%
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson25%
Jacob Lungi Sørensen19%
Kristian Eriksen18%
Noah Jean Holm17%
Niklas Jensen Wassberg14%
Felix Horn Myhre13%
Kristall Máni Ingason13%
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen12%
Thore Pedersen12%
Joachim Soltvedt11%
Matias Dyngeland8%
Denzel De Roeve8%
Vetle Winger Dragsnes7%
Bård Finne6%
Rabbi Matondo0%
Sævar Atli Magnússon0%
Ulrik Mathisen0%
Eggert Aron Guðmundsson0%
Simen Vidtun Nilsen0%
Markus Haaland0%
Jonas Torsvik0%
Rasmus Holten0%
Martin Hellan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ulrik Mathisen31%
Kristian Eriksen18%
Niklas Castro17%
Joachim Soltvedt17%
Denzel De Roeve15%
Kristall Máni Ingason13%
Bård Finne12%
Noah Jean Holm11%
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson8%
Niklas Jensen Wassberg7%
Felix Horn Myhre7%
Jacob Lungi Sørensen6%
Rabbi Matondo0%
Vetle Winger Dragsnes0%
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen0%
Thore Pedersen0%
Matias Dyngeland0%
Sævar Atli Magnússon0%
Eggert Aron Guðmundsson0%
Simen Vidtun Nilsen0%
Markus Haaland0%
Jonas Torsvik0%
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson0%
Rasmus Holten0%
Martin Hellan0%
Cheick Mbacke Diop0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Noah Jean Holm39%
Joachim Soltvedt22%
Niklas Castro17%
Kristall Máni Ingason13%
Bård Finne12%
Kristian Eriksen6%
Rabbi Matondo0%
Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson0%
Jacob Lungi Sørensen0%
Felix Horn Myhre0%
Vetle Winger Dragsnes0%
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen0%
Thore Pedersen0%
Matias Dyngeland0%
Sævar Atli Magnússon0%
Ulrik Mathisen0%
Eggert Aron Guðmundsson0%
Simen Vidtun Nilsen0%
Denzel De Roeve0%
Niklas Jensen Wassberg0%
Markus Haaland0%
Jonas Torsvik0%
Kjartan Mar Kjartansson0%
Rasmus Holten0%
Martin Hellan0%
Cheick Mbacke Diop0%
Lillestrom
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thomas Lehne Olsen25%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim24%
Felix Vá22%
Markus Karlsbakk20%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Salieu Drammeh17%
Lars Ranger12%
Camil Jebara9%
Karl Linus Alperud9%
Kparobo Arierhi9%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Yaw Paintsil0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Frederik Elkær0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Harald Woxen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ylldren Ibrahimaj35%
Harald Woxen27%
Stian Kristiansen25%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim24%
Frederik Elkær20%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Markus Karlsbakk13%
Kevin Martin Krygard12%
Lars Ranger12%
Pontus Dahlberg11%
Sander Moen Foss11%
Ulrik Jenssen10%
Camil Jebara9%
Yaw Paintsil8%
Ruben Gabrielsen7%
Felix Vá6%
Thomas Lehne Olsen0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Felix Vá22%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj12%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim12%
Frederik Elkær10%
Thomas Lehne Olsen8%
Yaw Paintsil8%
Salieu Drammeh8%
Lars Ranger6%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Markus Karlsbakk0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Camil Jebara0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Harald Woxen0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thomas Lehne Olsen33%
Salieu Drammeh17%
Markus Karlsbakk13%
Lars Ranger6%
Felix Vá6%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Yaw Paintsil0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Frederik Elkær0%
Camil Jebara0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Harald Woxen0%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (27)
€47m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (25)
€27m
ROS (23)
€23m
S0F (24)
€16m
VAL (22)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
TRO (22)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (23)
€12m
HAM (24)
€10m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Brann's squad is €12m more valuable than Lillestrom's (€27m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (10)
€11m
ROS (8)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
AAL (7)
€5m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
SAN (8)
€4m
TRO (6)
€4m
HAM (10)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Brann's attack is €6m more valuable than Lillestrom's (€11m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
HAM (6)
€3m
TRO (5)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Brann's midfield is €3m more valuable than Lillestrom's (€7m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
VIK (12)
€15m
MOL (11)
€15m
ROS (11)
€9m
BRA (11)
€9m
TRO (11)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
VAL (9)
€5m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
HAM (8)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
Brann's defence is €3m more valuable than Lillestrom's (€9m vs €5m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Molde
Fredrikstad
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
Sandefjord
KFUM Oslo
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
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