This match is expected to be a high-scoring affair with a total of 3.0 goals on average, but the most likely total number of goals is 2. The model predicts a home win for Brann, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 11.8%. Brann has been struggling at home, scoring 1.9 goals and conceding 1.4 per game against weaker opponents. Meanwhile, Rosenborg has been conceding 2.5 goals per game when playing away against stronger opponents, scoring just 0.5 goals. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has a high probability of 81.1%. The model's selection for the match result is Home win, with a probability of 51%. The home win percentage is 51%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 24%. The model's selection for the match result is Home win, and the model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 81.1%.
Results analysis
Brann's win extends their recent run, snapping a defeat with a 3-2 victory over Rosenborg. The model's selection of Home win proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's call was correct, as Brann secured the win. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 81.1%. The final score of 3-2, a most likely outcome, saw Brann's average goals scored at home (1.9) and conceded (1.4) contributing to their win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brann win✓ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.95
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
SBO
1.97
Betfair
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.76
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.96
Dafabet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Rosenborg win✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.42
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
1xBet
3.56
Dafabet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brann
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.67
1.54
1.69
1.65
1.65
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.42
1.58
vs Weaker (14)
1.93
1.50
1.78
1.33
2.20
1.80
Clean sheet %
7% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rosenborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.63
2.07
1.20
1.20
2.07
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.32
1.79
1.80
1.40
0.78
2.22
vs Weaker (9)
2.33
1.33
3.33
0.33
1.83
1.83
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Brann) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
@ 1.14-1.0%
Under 1.5
18.9%
@ 5.21+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Under
Betfair
6.00
Pinnacle
5.75
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.48-5.3%
Under 2.5
42.4%
@ 2.51+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.52
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.2%
@ 2.22-7.1%
Under 3.5
64.8%
@ 1.63+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.31
Unibet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.26
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
888Sport
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.1%
@ 1.44-4.9%
No
40.9%
@ 2.56+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
888Sport
1.44
No
BetVictor
2.70
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 7.43+5.7%
2-1
9.7%@ 7.97+4.1%
2-0
8.2%@ 11.44+4.3%
1-0
8.0%@ 10.24+3.6%
1-2
6.3%@ 11.18+2.3%
0-0
6.1%@ 15.90+3.2%
3-1
5.9%@ 12.27+2.2%
2-2
5.8%@ 10.48+1.4%
Brann goals ↓
Rosenborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
4.8%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.0%
12%
6.3%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.7%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.0%
5.9%
3.5%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.2%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brann goals (down), columns = Rosenborg goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.41
Viking
2.35
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.59
Lillestrom
1.53
Brann
1.47
Rosenborg
1.41
Fredrikstad
1.35
Ham-Kam
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.29
Valerenga
1.24
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Sandefjord
1.06
Aalesund
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Start
0.59
Brann is 0.06 points better than Rosenborg in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bodo/Glimt
2.53
Viking
2.35
Brann
2.12
Tromso
2.00
Molde
1.88
Valerenga
1.65
Aalesund
1.59
Rosenborg
1.47
Ham-Kam
1.41
Lillestrom
1.35
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.18
KFUM Oslo
1.12
Fredrikstad
1.06
Start
0.94
Sandefjord
0.88
Kristiansund BK
0.88
Brann is 0.65 goals better than Rosenborg in terms of goals scored per game (2.12 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bodo/Glimt
0.71
Viking
1.00
Tromso
1.18
Lillestrom
1.24
Rosenborg
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.35
Sandefjord
1.35
Molde
1.53
KFUM Oslo
1.59
Fredrikstad
1.59
Kristiansund BK
1.59
Brann
1.59
Ham-Kam
1.76
Valerenga
2.00
Start
2.24
Aalesund
2.41
Brann is 0.29 goals worse than Rosenborg in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bodo/Glimt
65%
Brann
59%
Molde
59%
Lillestrom
53%
Rosenborg
52%
Viking
51%
Sandefjord
51%
Tromso
49%
Valerenga
49%
Fredrikstad
47%
Ham-Kam
47%
KFUM Oslo
45%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
45%
Aalesund
43%
Kristiansund BK
43%
Start
42%
Brann is 6.8 percentage points better than Rosenborg in terms of average possession (59% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brann
For 5.8 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 13.9 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rosenborg
For 5.6 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 15.3 · Total 27.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brann
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.5
11.1
3.7
3.7
3.6
24.4
23.6
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
9.5
9.5
-
2.5
2.5
-
19.0
19.0
-
vs Similar (27)
10.4
10.0
10.6
4.1
4.4
3.9
25.4
27.7
24.4
vs Weaker (21)
11.4
11.0
12.1
3.2
3.5
2.9
23.6
21.9
26.3
% over line
65%
65%
65%
56%
55%
57%
65%
60%
70%
% under line
35%
35%
35%
44%
45%
43%
35%
40%
30%
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rosenborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
12.0
9.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
24.6
24.6
24.6
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
8.5
8.0
3.3
3.5
3.0
24.0
26.0
20.0
vs Similar (31)
11.3
12.9
9.6
3.6
3.8
3.5
25.0
24.8
25.2
vs Weaker (16)
10.8
11.3
10.3
2.3
2.0
2.6
23.8
23.5
24.0
% over line
66%
81%
50%
48%
50%
46%
68%
67%
70%
% under line
34%
19%
50%
52%
50%
54%
32%
33%
30%
This opponent (Brann) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Valerenga
11.7
Viking
11.6
Aalesund
11.6
Sarpsborg 08 FF
11.2
Rosenborg
10.9
Sandefjord
10.8
Brann
10.8
Bodo/Glimt
10.7
Ham-Kam
10.3
Lillestrom
10.3
Kristiansund BK
10.2
Molde
10.1
Fredrikstad
9.8
Tromso
9.0
KFUM Oslo
8.9
Start
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Viking
4.4
Molde
4.3
Brann
4.1
Valerenga
4.0
Lillestrom
3.9
Rosenborg
3.9
Start
3.8
Kristiansund BK
3.7
Sandefjord
3.6
KFUM Oslo
3.5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3.4
Aalesund
3.3
Tromso
3.3
Fredrikstad
3.1
Ham-Kam
3.0
Bodo/Glimt
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sandefjord
24.9
Viking
24.7
Start
24.2
Brann
24.2
Rosenborg
24.0
Valerenga
23.9
Molde
23.2
Tromso
23.0
Ham-Kam
22.8
Sarpsborg 08 FF
22.8
Kristiansund BK
22.1
Lillestrom
21.8
KFUM Oslo
21.5
Aalesund
21.4
Fredrikstad
21.0
Bodo/Glimt
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.5%
@ 1.45-3.9%
Under 9.5
40.5%
@ 2.51+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Under
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.56
Unibet
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
72.8%
Under 21.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brann
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.77
1.08
0.82
0.65
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.67
0.67
1.33
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.86
0.89
0.78
0.80
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rosenborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.93
0.60
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.63
1.11
0.90
0.70
0.33
1.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.44
1.33
0.00
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Brann) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brann over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brann over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brann over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brann
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.77
0.62
0.82
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.58
1.08
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.64
0.89
0.56
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Rosenborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rosenborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.13
0.60
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.68
0.90
0.70
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.89
2.00
0.33
1.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Brann) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brann over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brann over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brann over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rosenborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
81.1%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
1.25
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (25)
€45m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (24)
€25m
ROS (20)
€18m
S0F (24)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
VAL (19)
€14m
AAL (24)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (22)
€11m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
Brann's squad is €7m more valuable than Rosenborg's (€25m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (9)
€20m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (9)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
ROS (6)
€6m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
AAL (6)
€5m
SAN (7)
€4m
KO (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
Brann's attack is €3m more valuable than Rosenborg's (€10m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
Brann's midfield is €3m more valuable than Rosenborg's (€7m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
MOL (11)
€15m
VIK (11)
€13m
BRA (11)
€9m
ROS (10)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
VAL (6)
€3m
Brann and Rosenborg have a similar defence value (both €9m).
Norway: Eliteserien 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bodo/Glimt
Viking
Tromso
Molde
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Ham-Kam
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
Sandefjord
Kristiansund BK
Aalesund
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