The clash between Bravo and Maribor is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win as the most likely outcome. Bravo’s recent 2-0 victory over Mura gives them a slight lift, while Maribor’s two-game winning streak, highlighted by a 3-2 win over Nafta, keeps them sharp. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance. Bravo’s home form shows they average 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Maribor, playing away, averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s suggested selections include Over 1.5 fouls at 79.0% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 75.2% (hit), Over 19.5 fouls at 88.1% (miss), Over 2.5 cards at 79.1% (miss), Over 21.5 fouls at 77.4% (miss), and Under 11.5 corners at 71.0% (miss). Home win probability stands at 37%, draw at 27%, and away win at 36%.
Results analysis
The match saw Bravo extend their recent run, finishing the game 2-1 to secure a home win. The model’s favourite was Home win with a 37% probability, and it proved correct. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 79% probability, hit the mark, while the 79.1% chance of Over 2.5 cards missed. Over 19.5 fouls (88.1%) and Over 21.5 fouls (77.4%) both missed, as did Under 11.5 corners (71%). The Under 5.5 cards pick (75.2%) was a hit. The final score matched the most likely 2-1 outcome, confirming the model’s predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bravo win✓ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bravo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.21
1.36
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.07
1.33
1.31
1.23
0.86
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.30
1.67
1.07
1.40
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.35
1.41
1.62
1.00
1.11
1.78
vs Weaker (11)
2.00
0.82
2.00
0.83
2.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.4%
Under 2.5
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1 ✓
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
7.1%
0-1
6.9%
0-0
6.9%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
6.0%
Bravo goals ↓
Maribor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
6.9%
5.7%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.1%
13%
8.3%
3.9%
1.4%
2
6.0%
8.5%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.9%
4.1%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bravo goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Bravo is 0.56 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Bravo is 0.75 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Bravo is 0.28 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Bravo is 18.6 percentage points worse than Maribor in terms of average possession (41% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bravo
For 4.5 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
For 4.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 14.4 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bravo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
9.2
9.7
8.7
2.5
2.3
2.8
26.0
26.1
25.9
vs Stronger (5)
9.5
8.0
10.0
3.0
2.0
3.7
25.0
25.0
25.0
vs Similar (42)
9.1
9.9
8.4
2.5
2.3
2.7
26.2
26.2
26.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
53%
38%
36%
30%
42%
74%
60%
88%
% under line
55%
47%
62%
64%
70%
58%
26%
40%
12%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.9
8.5
3.3
3.8
2.9
25.7
25.5
26.1
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
9.0
14.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
19.5
23.0
16.0
vs Similar (27)
8.5
8.7
8.2
3.9
4.7
3.1
27.2
27.2
27.2
vs Weaker (21)
10.2
11.9
8.0
2.5
2.6
2.4
24.5
23.6
26.2
% over line
39%
44%
33%
44%
44%
44%
70%
65%
77%
% under line
61%
56%
67%
56%
56%
56%
30%
35%
23%
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
10.8
Aluminij
10.1
Celje
9.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Koper
9.5
NK Domzale
9.4
Bravo
9.2
Maribor
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.4
NK Domzale
4.9
Maribor
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.0
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.2
Bravo
26.0
Maribor
25.8
Aluminij
25.5
Mura
25.4
Koper
24.4
Celje
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.8%
Under 9.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.6%
Under 3.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
77.4%
Under 21.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bravo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.43
0.79
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.74
0.46
0.77
0.36
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.65
0.75
0.50
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.64
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bravo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bravo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.79
0.57
0.44
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.59
0.85
0.46
0.50
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.93
0.47
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.76
0.88
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.18
1.17
0.17
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bravo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Bravo's squad is €5m less valuable than Maribor's (€4m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Bravo's attack is €4m less valuable than Maribor's (€1m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Bravo and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Bravo's defence is €1m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →