The contest between Bravo and Maribor is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 28% and 41% respectively, while a draw is slightly more likely at 30%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% chance. Bravo, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.23 conceded, whereas Maribor on the road averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded versus comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 79.9%, Over 19.5 fouls at 79.8%, Under 3.5 at 79.2% (hit) and Over 2.5 cards at 74.9%. Bravo’s recent form shows a win, while Maribor is on a two-game winning streak, adding further intrigue to a match that could swing either way.
Results analysis
The draw shocked the pre-match favourite, as the model had tipped Maribor to win with a 41% chance. The final score of 1-1 confirmed the upset, leaving the model’s call wrong. Bravo, fresh from a win, and Maribor, on a two-game winning run, were evenly matched. The model’s sole suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit with a 79.2% probability. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 14.3%, and the expected total of 2.3 goals was close to the 2-goal tally that actually occurred. The result was a tidy draw, a reminder that even the most probable outcomes can falter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bravo win✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bravo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.27
1.33
1.20
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.23
1.54
1.23
1.15
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.17
2.38
1.00
1.21
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.78
1.28
2.44
1.11
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (10)
2.20
0.60
2.67
0.50
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.1%
Under 1.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.3%
0-1
11.3%
0-0
11.0%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.7%
2-0
5.2%
Bravo goals ↓
Maribor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
1
8.7%
14%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.2%
6.7%
4.4%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.8%
2.3%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bravo goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Bravo is 0.56 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Bravo is 0.75 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Bravo is 0.28 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Bravo is 18.6 percentage points worse than Maribor in terms of average possession (41% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bravo
For 5.8 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
For 3.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bravo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.6
8.9
2.8
2.6
3.0
24.5
24.7
24.3
vs Stronger (6)
9.8
9.3
10.5
2.8
3.3
2.3
23.8
23.0
25.0
vs Similar (44)
9.8
10.9
8.8
2.8
2.5
3.1
24.6
25.1
24.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
67%
44%
40%
36%
44%
64%
50%
78%
% under line
44%
33%
56%
60%
64%
56%
36%
50%
22%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.7
3.8
4.2
3.4
25.2
25.6
24.8
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
9.0
14.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
19.5
23.0
16.0
vs Similar (29)
8.3
8.2
8.4
4.5
5.3
3.7
27.0
27.1
26.8
vs Weaker (19)
10.1
12.0
8.4
2.7
2.4
3.0
23.1
23.2
23.0
% over line
36%
40%
32%
56%
52%
60%
67%
63%
71%
% under line
64%
60%
68%
44%
48%
40%
33%
37%
29%
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Celje
9.8
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.5
Koper
9.2
Maribor
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.8
NK Domzale
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.5
Mura
4.2
Celje
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.4
Koper
24.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
24.8
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.5%
Under 9.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.9%
Under 3.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.6%
Under 21.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bravo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.53
0.53
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.54
0.62
0.54
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.18
0.53
0.54
0.54
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.53
1.30
0.50
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.56
1.17
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bravo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bravo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.80
0.67
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.69
0.92
0.69
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.12
0.41
0.62
0.92
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.68
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.11
1.50
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bravo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Bravo's squad is €5m less valuable than Maribor's (€4m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Bravo's attack is €4m less valuable than Maribor's (€1m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Bravo and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Bravo's defence is €1m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Koper
NK Domzale
Mura
Rogaška
Radomlje
Aluminij
Nafta