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Bray Wanderers vs Finn Harps Result & Analysis

Date: 07/08/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 5-0
Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
Vs
66%
19%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Finn Harps' recent form has been dismal, with five consecutive defeats, but Bray Wanderers' home strength is a significant factor in this matchup. Their home win percentage stands at 66%, which is why the model rates them as the clear favourites. The model's selection is the home win, with a predicted advantage over the away side at Finn Harps' venue.

The expected total goals are 3.6, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 9.4%. Bray Wanderers have been scoring an average of 2.33 goals at home, while conceding 1.67. Finn Harps, on the other hand, have been scoring 1.17 goals away from home, but conceding 2.5.

The model suggests two selections: Over 1.5, with a probability of 88.4% and an edge of 4%, and Over 2.5, with a probability of 70.1% and an edge of 3%. The home win percentage is 66%, the draw percentage is 19%, and the away win percentage is 15%.

Results analysis

The win extends Bray Wanderers' run, with a convincing 5-0 scoreline against Finn Harps. The model's call for a home win proved correct, as the favourite, Bray Wanderers, landed the predicted result. The model's selection, a home win, held a pre-match probability of 66%. The model's selection was correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 88.4%, and the selection of Over 2.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 70.1%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bray Wanderers win✓ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.25
Edge
-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Dafabet
1.27
Bet365
1.27
SBO
1.27
Draw✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.38
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.10
Dafabet
6.00
Bet365
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.65
Finn Harps win✗ Miss
14.7%
Avg Implied 11.1% · @ 8.16
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
10.75
Pinnacle
9.36
Dafabet
8.60
888Sport
8.50
Betfair
8.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Bray WanderersBray Wanderers

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L51W10W32W10W12L60W21W04L12LA·TRE10/10H·KER17/10A·UCD24/10H·UCD28/10H·TRE02/11H·WAT07/11H·UCD10/07A·COB24/07H·KER31/07A·WEX03/08← Premier DivisionFirst Division →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.532.121.471.541.62
vs Stronger (14)1.641.431.881.381.331.50
vs Similar (13)2.081.462.291.291.831.67
vs Weaker (3)2.002.332.502.501.002.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L13L14L03L11D34L01L12L03L05LA·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09A·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.801.001.600.802.00
vs Stronger (14)0.792.001.001.860.572.14
vs Similar (16)1.001.621.001.381.001.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%08%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.4%
@ 1.09+4.2%
Under 1.5
11.6%
@ 5.80-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Under
Betfair
7.00
Pinnacle
6.58
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.1%
@ 1.36+2.9%
Under 2.5
29.9%
@ 2.78-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.06
10Bet
2.90
888Sport
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.9%
@ 1.93+1.2%
Under 3.5
51.1%
@ 1.76-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.01
Unibet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.78
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.8%
@ 1.65+7.5%
No
37.2%
@ 2.04-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
No
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.07

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%@ 7.78+3.9%
2-0
8.3%@ 7.22+2.4%
1-1
8.3%@ 10.30+4.1%
3-1
7.8%@ 8.96+3.0%
3-0
6.9%@ 8.17+1.6%
1-0
5.9%@ 9.01+1.2%
2-2
5.3%@ 16.22+2.6%
4-1
4.9%@ 12.98+1.5%
Bray Wanderers goals ↓
Finn Harps goals →
01234
03.4%2.3%1.7%0.6%0.2%
15.9%8.3%4.3%1.6%0.5%
28.3%9.4%5.3%2.0%0.6%
36.9%7.8%4.4%1.7%0.5%
44.3%4.9%2.7%1.0%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bray Wanderers goals (down), columns = Finn Harps goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Bray Wanderers is 1.29 points better than Finn Harps in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 0.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Bray Wanderers is 1.57 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals scored per game (2.43 vs 0.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Bray Wanderers is 1.57 goals better than Finn Harps in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 3.43).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Bray WanderersBray Wanderers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D11D00D11D20W11D01L12LA·TRE10/10H·KER17/10A·UCD24/10H·UCD28/10H·TRE02/11H·WAT07/11H·UCD10/07A·COB24/07H·KER31/07A·WEX03/08← Premier DivisionFirst Division →
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.870.820.760.691.00
vs Stronger (14)0.790.930.750.750.831.17
vs Similar (13)0.770.850.860.860.670.83
vs Weaker (3)0.670.671.000.500.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W00D13L00D01L13L01L12L00D01LA·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09A·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.330.730.470.87
vs Stronger (14)0.210.570.140.710.290.43
vs Similar (16)0.561.000.500.750.621.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Bray WanderersBray Wanderers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L31W10W21W10W01L40W10W03L00DA·TRE10/10H·KER17/10A·UCD24/10H·UCD28/10H·TRE02/11H·WAT07/11H·UCD10/07A·COB24/07H·KER31/07A·WEX03/08← Premier DivisionFirst Division →
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.671.290.710.850.62
vs Stronger (14)0.860.501.120.620.500.33
vs Similar (13)1.310.621.430.431.170.83
vs Weaker (3)1.331.671.502.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Finn Harps) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L13L01L03L10W21W00D00D03L04LA·BRA19/09H·WEX22/09A·COB26/09A·DUN10/10H·KER13/10H·UCD17/10H·TRE10/07A·KER24/07H·COR31/07A·LON03/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.670.870.331.13
vs Stronger (14)0.571.430.861.140.291.71
vs Similar (16)0.440.620.500.620.380.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Finn Harps over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.4%1.09
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+4.2%✓ Hit
Over 2.570.1%1.36
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
+2.9%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Finn Harps have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Finn Harps have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Finn Harps have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CR (2)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
BW wins
2
Draws
2
FH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Bray Wanderers vs Finn Harps · H/A from BW
DateH/AGameScore
19/09/25HBW Vs Finn Harps3-2
04/08/25AFinn Harps Vs BW2-2
30/05/25HBW Vs Finn Harps3-1
21/03/25AFinn Harps Vs BW5-0
11/10/24HBW Vs Finn Harps2-2
02/08/24AFinn Harps Vs BW1-2
06/05/24HBW Vs Finn Harps1-0
01/04/24AFinn Harps Vs BW2-0

Bray WanderersBray Wanderers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26AWexford Vs BW2-1
31/07/26HBW Vs Kerry0-4
24/07/26ACobh Ramblers Vs BW1-2
10/07/26HBW Vs UCD6-0
07/11/25HBW Vs Waterford1-2
02/11/25HBW Vs Treaty United1-0
28/10/25HBW Vs UCD3-2
24/10/25AUCD Vs BW0-1
17/10/25HBW Vs Kerry5-1
10/10/25ATreaty United Vs BW2-1

Finn HarpsFinn Harps

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/08/26ALongford Town Vs FH5-0
31/07/26HFH Vs Cork City0-3
24/07/26AKerry Vs FH2-1
10/07/26HFH Vs Treaty United0-1
17/10/25HFH Vs UCD3-4
13/10/25HFH Vs Kerry1-1
10/10/25ADundalk Vs FH3-0
26/09/25ACobh Ramblers Vs FH4-1
22/09/25HFH Vs Wexford1-3
19/09/25ABray Wanderers Vs FH3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Bray Wanderers
Bray Wanderers
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.64
HomeWWLWL1.96
AwayLLWWL1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%63%39%
AVG goals3.203.592.74
Over 1.5 %82%93%70%
Over 2.5 %70%74%65%
Over 3.5 %46%59%30%
Scored1.702.151.17
Conceded1.501.441.57
BTTS58%63%52%
Clean Sheet28%26%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Finn Harps
Finn Harps
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.96
HomeLDLLL1.12
AwayLLLLL0.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals2.802.752.85
Over 1.5 %78%75%81%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %36%29%42%
Scored1.141.291.00
Conceded1.661.461.85
BTTS58%54%62%
Clean Sheet22%25%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KerryKerry714
57%
2.0
168+8
3.4
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.1
-
2Longford TownLongford Town713
57%
1.9
1811+7
4.1
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.6
-
3Cork CityCork City713
57%
1.9
1814+4
4.6
100%
86%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.62.0
-
4Athlone TownAthlone Town713
57%
1.9
117+4
2.6
86%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5UCDUCD711
43%
1.6
1616+0
4.6
86%
71%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.32.3
-
6Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers710
43%
1.4
910-1
2.7
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
7Treaty UnitedTreaty United710
43%
1.4
810-2
2.6
71%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
8Bray WanderersBray Wanderers79
43%
1.3
1713+4
4.3
100%
100%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.9
-
9WexfordWexford77
29%
1.0
713-6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.9
-
10Finn HarpsFinn Harps70
0%
0.0
624-18
4.3
86%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.93.4
-
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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