Bray Wanderers vs Kerry Result & Analysis

Date: 31/07/2026

Time: 18:45

Final 0-4

Bray Wanderers

66%

19%

15%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Kerry

Ireland: First Division

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U

10 Top picks for this game 11 Squad value 12 Games History 13 Overall Statistics 14 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Bray Wanderers are the clear favourites to win at home against Kerry, with the model predicting a home win. This is largely due to Kerry's struggles on the road, where they tend to concede more goals against stronger opponents.

In their last outing, Bray Wanderers came off a convincing 5-0 win against Finn Harps, showcasing their strength at home. They have an impressive home record, scoring an average of 3 goals and conceding just 1.5 per match against weaker opponents.

Kerry, on the other hand, have been inconsistent on the road, scoring an average of 1.31 goals and conceding 2.23 against stronger teams. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.7 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals.

The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 66%. The most likely score is 2-1 to Bray Wanderers, with a probability of 9.2%.

The model's selections include Over 1.5 (89.3%), Over 2.5 (71.8%), and no other picks. The home win percentage is 66%, the draw percentage is 19%, and the away win percentage is 15%.

Results analysis

A stunning upset in the Ireland: First Division as Kerry defeated Bray Wanderers 0-4, securing an away win. This result extends Kerry's run of mixed form, having come off a defeat, but ultimately bouncing back with a strong performance. In contrast, Bray Wanderers' win streak was snapped as they struggled to contain Kerry's offense. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, given the pre-match probability of 66%. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection was not the favourite, however, as the model had picked a home win. The model's selection was a 66% probability of a home win. The model's selection was incorrect. The model's selection was a home win. The model's selection was incorrect. The model had suggested two selections: Over 1.5, which hit with a probability of 89.3%, and Over 2.5, which also hit with a probability of 71.8%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bray Wanderers win✗ Miss

66.1%

Avg Implied 59.8% · @ 1.51

Edge

+6.3%

Best 5 market prices

Unibet

1.58

Betano

1.55

Dafabet

1.55

SBO

1.54

Superbet

1.54

Draw✗ Miss

18.8%

Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 3.95

Edge

-4.1%

Best 5 market prices

Pinnacle

4.37

Dafabet

4.20

Betfair

4.20

Superbet

4.10

10Bet

4.10

Kerry win✓ Hit

15.1%

Avg Implied 17.4% · @ 5.21

Edge

-2.2%

Best 5 market prices

10Bet

5.70

Pinnacle

5.68

1xBet

5.64

Betfair

5.50

Bet365

5.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Bray Wanderers

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.4

Avg scored

2.1

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.93	1.47	2.25	1.31	1.57	1.64
vs Stronger (14)	1.71	1.43	1.88	1.38	1.50	1.50
vs Similar (11)	1.64	1.73	2.00	1.40	1.33	2.00
vs Weaker (5)	3.20	1.00	3.67	1.00	2.50	1.00
Clean sheet %	23% (-3pp vs league)

This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kerry

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.0

Avg scored

1.2

Avg conceded

1.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.27	1.70	1.20	1.13	1.33	2.27
vs Stronger (26)	1.12	1.88	0.85	1.31	1.38	2.46
vs Similar (4)	2.25	0.50	3.50	0.00	1.00	1.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	23% (-3pp vs league)

This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

89.3%

@ 1.18+11.6%

Under 1.5

10.7%

@ 4.09-11.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

1.22

Betano

1.20

Bet365

1.20

Pinnacle

1.19

Unibet

1.18

Under

Pinnacle

4.65

Betfair

4.50

Bet365

4.33

Marathonbet

4.25

1xBet

4.25

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

71.8%

@ 1.62+15.0%

Under 2.5

28.2%

@ 2.13-15.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

SBO

1.83

10Bet

1.65

Pinnacle

1.64

Superbet

1.63

Bet365

1.62

Under

Pinnacle

2.28

Bet365

2.25

10Bet

2.20

Betfair

2.20

Marathonbet

2.19

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

50.9%

@ 2.47+14.0%

Under 3.5

49.1%

@ 1.45-14.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

10Bet

2.65

Betfair

2.60

Pinnacle

2.57

Superbet

2.52

Bet365

2.50

Under

Pinnacle

1.50

Bet365

1.50

10Bet

1.48

Betano

1.45

Betfair

1.44

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

64.5%

@ 1.67+10.1%

35.5%

@ 2.00-10.1%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Betfair

1.73

Bet365

1.73

Superbet

1.72

10Bet

1.70

1xBet

1.68

Unibet

2.06

William Hil

2.05

1xBet

2.04

Marathonbet

2.01

Betano

2.00

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

2-1

9.2%@ 7.06+3.2%

1-1

8.0%@ 7.32+2.2%

2-0

7.8%@ 7.16+1.8%

3-1

7.8%@ 10.47+3.7%

3-0

6.6%@ 10.41+2.5%

2-2

5.5%@ 13.95+2.4%

1-0

5.4%@ 7.01-0.7%

4-1

5.0%@ 19.80+2.8%

Bray Wanderers goals ↓

	Kerry goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	2.1%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%
1	5.4%	8.0%	4.3%	1.7%	0.5%
2	7.8%	9.2%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	6.6%	7.8%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
4	4.2%	5.0%	2.9%	1.2%	0.3%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bray Wanderers goals (down), columns = Kerry goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Kerry

2.00

Cork City

1.80

Longford Town

1.80

Treaty United

1.80

Bray Wanderers

1.80

UCD

1.40

Athlone Town

1.40

Wexford

1.40

Cobh Ramblers

1.20

Finn Harps

0.00

Bray Wanderers is 0.20 points worse than Kerry in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Cork City

2.80

Bray Wanderers

2.80

Longford Town

2.40

Kerry

2.40

UCD

2.00

Athlone Town

1.40

Wexford

1.40

Treaty United

1.00

Cobh Ramblers

0.80

Finn Harps

0.20

Bray Wanderers is 0.40 goals better than Kerry in terms of goals scored per game (2.80 vs 2.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Treaty United

1.00

Athlone Town

1.20

Kerry

1.20

Longford Town

1.40

Cobh Ramblers

1.40

Bray Wanderers

1.40

Wexford

1.80

UCD

2.20

Cork City

2.40

Finn Harps

3.20

Bray Wanderers is 0.20 goals worse than Kerry in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Bray Wanderers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.80	0.83	0.88	0.75	0.71	0.93
vs Stronger (14)	0.79	0.86	0.75	0.75	0.83	1.00
vs Similar (11)	0.55	1.09	0.60	1.20	0.50	1.00
vs Weaker (5)	1.40	0.20	1.67	0.00	1.00	0.50
Clean sheet %	37% (+11pp vs league)

This opponent (Kerry) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kerry

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.6

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.67	0.60	0.73	0.40	0.60	0.80
vs Stronger (26)	0.58	0.69	0.46	0.46	0.69	0.92
vs Similar (4)	1.25	0.00	2.50	0.00	0.00	0.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	57% (+31pp vs league)

This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

0.0%

Under 0.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

0.0%

Under 1.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

0.0%

Under 2.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Kerry over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Kerry over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Kerry over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	89.3%	1.18	10Bet 1.22	Betano 1.20	Bet365 1.20	Pinnacle 1.19	Unibet 1.18	+11.6%	✓ Hit
Over 2.5	71.8%	1.62	SBO 1.83	10Bet 1.65	Pinnacle 1.64	Superbet 1.63	Bet365 1.62	+15.0%	✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CR (40)

€0m

FH (32)

€0m

TU (31)

€0m

BW (29)

€0m

CC (30)

€0m

KER (28)

€0m

AT (38)

€0m

Bray Wanderers and Kerry have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

AT (0)

€0m

BW (0)

€0m

CR (0)

€0m

CC (0)

€0m

FH (0)

€0m

KER (0)

€0m

TU (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

AT (0)

€0m

BW (0)

€0m

CR (0)

€0m

CC (0)

€0m

FH (0)

€0m

KER (0)

€0m

TU (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

AT (0)

€0m

BW (0)

€0m

CR (0)

€0m

CC (0)

€0m

FH (0)

€0m

KER (0)

€0m

TU (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings

BW wins

Draws

KER wins

Head-to-head

Bray Wanderers vs Kerry · H/A from BW

Date	H/A	Game	Score
17/10/25	H	BW Vs Kerry	5-1
20/06/25	A	Kerry Vs BW	2-1
25/04/25	H	BW Vs Kerry	4-2
07/03/25	A	Kerry Vs BW	0-1
20/09/24	H	BW Vs Kerry	2-0
12/07/24	A	Kerry Vs BW	3-3
26/04/24	H	BW Vs Kerry	2-0
23/02/24	A	Kerry Vs BW	2-3

Bray Wanderers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
24/07/26	A	Cobh Ramblers Vs BW	1-2
10/07/26	H	BW Vs UCD	6-0
07/11/25	H	BW Vs Waterford	1-2
02/11/25	H	BW Vs Treaty United	1-0
28/10/25	H	BW Vs UCD	3-2
24/10/25	A	UCD Vs BW	0-1
17/10/25	H	BW Vs Kerry	5-1
10/10/25	A	Treaty United Vs BW	2-1
03/10/25	A	Cobh Ramblers Vs BW	3-1
26/09/25	H	BW Vs Longford Town	0-2

Kerry

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
24/07/26	H	KER Vs Finn Harps	2-1
10/07/26	A	Wexford Vs KER	2-2
17/10/25	A	Bray Wanderers Vs KER	5-1
13/10/25	A	Finn Harps Vs KER	1-1
10/10/25	H	KER Vs Wexford	0-2
26/09/25	H	KER Vs Treaty United	1-1
22/09/25	A	Athlone Town Vs KER	0-0
19/09/25	A	UCD Vs KER	2-1
05/09/25	H	KER Vs Cobh Ramblers	1-1
29/08/25	A	Dundalk Vs KER	3-3

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Bray Wanderers

Ireland: First Division

Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWLWW	1.68
Home	WWWLW	2.00
Away	LLLWW	1.30

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	52%	63%	39%
AVG goals	3.22	3.67	2.70
Over 1.5 %	82%	93%	70%
Over 2.5 %	68%	74%	61%
Over 3.5 %	46%	59%	30%
Scored	1.76	2.26	1.17
Conceded	1.46	1.41	1.52
BTTS	60%	67%	52%
Clean Sheet	28%	26%	30%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Kerry

Ireland: First Division

Recent: 1 Wins / 6 Draws / 3 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LDLDW	0.94
Home	WDDLW	1.29
Away	LDDLD	0.62

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	22%	38%	8%
AVG goals	2.80	2.17	3.38
Over 1.5 %	78%	71%	85%
Over 2.5 %	46%	29%	62%
Over 3.5 %	30%	12%	46%
Scored	1.10	1.00	1.19
Conceded	1.70	1.17	2.19
BTTS	48%	29%	65%
Clean Sheet	20%	29%	12%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 14. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Kerry	5	10	60%	2.0	12	6	+6	3.6	100%	100%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.4	1.2	-
2	Bray Wanderers	5	9	60%	1.8	14	7	+7	4.2	100%	100%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	1.4	-
3	Longford Town	5	9	60%	1.8	12	7	+5	3.8	80%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.4	1.4	-
4	Cork City	5	9	60%	1.8	14	12	+2	5.2	100%	100%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	2.4	-
5	Treaty United	5	9	60%	1.8	5	5	+0	2.0	60%	40%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.0	-
6	Athlone Town	5	7	40%	1.4	7	6	+1	2.6	80%	60%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.2	-
7	UCD	5	7	40%	1.4	10	11	-1	4.2	80%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	2.2	-
8	Wexford	5	7	40%	1.4	7	9	-2	3.2	80%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.8	-
9	Cobh Ramblers	5	6	40%	1.2	4	7	-3	2.2	80%	40%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.4	-
10	Finn Harps	5	0	0%	0.0	1	16	-15	3.4	80%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.2	3.2	-

Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

← all matches

Bray Wanderers vs Kerry Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Bray Wanderers

Kerry

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Bray Wanderers

Kerry

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Bray Wanderers

Kerry

📊 13. Overall Statistics

🏆 14. League Table

A Pro feature