Bray Wanderers are the clear favourites, with a 52 % chance of victory, 25 % for a draw and 24 % for Treaty United. The model expects 3.1 goals on average, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.4 % chance. Bray, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 2.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Treaty United, on the road, averages 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.5 %), Under 6.5 (96.2 %), Under 5.5 (90.8 %), Home +2 handicap (90.1 %), Home under 3.5 goals (88.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (87.7 %) and Home over 0.5 goals (84.6 %). Bray Wanderers have just returned from a defeat, while Treaty United are coming off a draw.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Bray Wanderers win
55.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Treaty United win
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Bray Wanderers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.60
2.27
1.40
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (14)
1.71
1.57
2.00
1.29
1.43
1.86
vs Similar (13)
2.08
1.46
2.50
1.17
1.71
1.71
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
2.33
2.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.21
1.43
0.88
1.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.55
0.67
2.00
1.20
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.38
1.71
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.7%
Under 1.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
5.8%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
Bray Wanderers goals ↓
Treaty United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.9%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.3%
11%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.6%
6.6%
3.9%
1.5%
0.4%
4
2.8%
3.3%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bray Wanderers goals (down), columns = Treaty United goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kerry
2.00
Cork City
1.86
Longford Town
1.86
Athlone Town
1.86
UCD
1.57
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Bray Wanderers
1.29
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.00
Bray Wanderers is 0.14 points worse than Treaty United in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cork City
2.57
Longford Town
2.57
Bray Wanderers
2.43
UCD
2.29
Kerry
2.29
Athlone Town
1.57
Cobh Ramblers
1.29
Treaty United
1.14
Wexford
1.00
Finn Harps
0.86
Bray Wanderers is 1.29 goals better than Treaty United in terms of goals scored per game (2.43 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Athlone Town
1.00
Kerry
1.14
Treaty United
1.43
Cobh Ramblers
1.43
Longford Town
1.57
Wexford
1.86
Bray Wanderers
1.86
Cork City
2.00
UCD
2.29
Finn Harps
3.43
Bray Wanderers is 0.43 goals worse than Treaty United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.86 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Bray Wanderers or Draw
79.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Bray Wanderers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers or Treaty United
76.6%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Bray Wanderers + Treaty United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Treaty United
44.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
23%
21%
covers Draw + Treaty United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5
Over
86.6%
Under
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 3.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5
Over
33.0%
Under
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Bray Wanderers, so a minus line means Bray Wanderers give that many goals of a start and Treaty United receive them. At -1, Bray Wanderers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Bray Wanderers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Bray Wanderers)
Bray Wanderers -2
16.5%
Draw -2
17.2%
Treaty United +2
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Bray Wanderers)
Bray Wanderers -1
33.7%
Draw -1
21.9%
Treaty United +1
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Bray Wanderers)
Bray Wanderers +1
79.0%
Draw +1
12.4%
Treaty United -1
8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Bray Wanderers)
Bray Wanderers +2
91.4%
Draw +2
5.9%
Treaty United -2
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bray Wanderers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.80
0.73
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.07
0.86
0.71
0.86
1.43
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.85
0.67
0.83
0.71
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.50
0.29
0.50
0.12
0.50
vs Stronger (11)
0.09
0.64
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.20
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.44
0.43
0.14
0.22
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bray Wanderers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
1.47
0.67
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
0.50
1.14
0.57
0.57
0.43
vs Similar (13)
1.38
0.62
1.83
0.33
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treaty United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
0.93
0.93
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.91
0.50
1.00
1.20
0.80
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.94
1.29
0.86
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Bray Wanderers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bray Wanderers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bray Wanderers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Treaty United have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TU (1)
€0m
CC (2)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Treaty United have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
Bray Wanderers and Treaty United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Ireland: First Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kerry
Longford Town
Cork City
Athlone Town
UCD
Cobh Ramblers
Wexford
Finn Harps