Brentford are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a Forest victory. The model expects 2.3 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match at 28%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability. Brentford, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, have been scoring 1.92 goals per game and conceding just 1.08, while Nottingham Forest, on the road to a comparable opponent, average only 0.36 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards (90.7%), Under 25.5 fouls (86.5%), Under 4.5 cards (80.1%), Under 3.5 (79.0%), Over 8.5 corners (77.0%) and Under 23.5 fouls (75.4%). Brentford have gone unbeaten in their last five, drawing 1-1 with Leeds, while Forest are coming off a 2-2 draw with Liverpool. The predicted outcome remains a home win.
Results analysis
Brentford’s unbeaten run extended as they secured a 2-1 home win over Nottingham Forest, matching the model’s forecast. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 49% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed largely as expected: Under 5.5 cards hit at 90.7%, Under 25.5 fouls hit at 86.5%, Under 4.5 cards hit at 80.1%, Under 3.5 hit at 79.0%, Over 8.5 corners missed at 77.0%, and Under 23.5 fouls hit at 75.4%. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the predicted result, and the team’s form narrative - unbeaten in five matches - was reinforced by the victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brentford winâś“ Hit
49.3%
Avg Implied 55.3% · @ 1.74
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.77
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest winâś— Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied 19.1% · @ 5.04
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Brentford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.73
1.13
1.07
1.40
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.33
1.92
1.08
0.92
1.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.90
1.31
1.31
0.43
2.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
2.67
1.00
0.67
0.67
4.67
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.71
1.38
1.46
0.36
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.2%
Under 1.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.6%
@ 1.98-6.7%
Under 2.5
58.4%
@ 1.85+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.0%
Under 3.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.7%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
10.2%
2-1 âś“
9.0%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.0%
Brentford goals ↓
Nottingham Forest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.3%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.0%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.0%
4.4%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brentford goals (down), columns = Nottingham Forest goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
2.34
Arsenal
2.21
Manchester United
1.97
Newcastle
1.87
Liverpool
1.76
Brighton
1.63
Aston Villa
1.61
Tottenham
1.58
Brentford
1.55
Fulham
1.37
Crystal Palace
1.18
Chelsea
1.16
Wolves
1.08
West Ham
1.05
Bournemouth
1.03
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Everton
0.95
Leicester
0.89
Leeds
0.82
Southampton
0.66
Brentford is 0.55 points better than Nottingham Forest in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.47
Arsenal
2.32
Liverpool
1.97
Brighton
1.89
Tottenham
1.84
Newcastle
1.79
Brentford
1.53
Manchester United
1.53
Fulham
1.45
Leicester
1.34
Aston Villa
1.34
Leeds
1.26
West Ham
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.05
Chelsea
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Bournemouth
0.97
Southampton
0.95
Everton
0.89
Wolves
0.82
Brentford is 0.53 goals better than Nottingham Forest in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.87
Manchester City
0.87
Arsenal
1.13
Manchester United
1.13
Brentford
1.21
Aston Villa
1.21
Liverpool
1.24
Chelsea
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.29
Fulham
1.39
Brighton
1.39
West Ham
1.45
Everton
1.50
Wolves
1.53
Tottenham
1.66
Leicester
1.79
Nottingham Forest
1.79
Bournemouth
1.87
Southampton
1.92
Leeds
2.05
Brentford is 0.58 goals better than Nottingham Forest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
66%
Liverpool
61%
Brighton
60%
Arsenal
60%
Chelsea
59%
Manchester United
54%
Newcastle
52%
Tottenham
50%
Fulham
49%
Aston Villa
49%
Leicester
48%
Leeds
48%
Crystal Palace
46%
Southampton
44%
Brentford
43%
Everton
42%
West Ham
42%
Bournemouth
41%
Nottingham Forest
37%
Brentford is 5.5 percentage points better than Nottingham Forest in terms of average possession (43% vs 37%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brentford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.57
0.80
0.33
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.58
0.83
0.25
0.50
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.83
0.62
0.62
0.14
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.79
0.77
0.62
0.18
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brentford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brentford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.93
0.80
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.75
1.08
0.83
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.07
0.69
0.69
0.29
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.67
1.00
0.00
0.67
3.33
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.92
0.62
0.85
0.18
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brentford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
FUL (21)
€329m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
LEI (22)
€69m
Brentford's squad is €15m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€565m vs €551m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
SOU (10)
€72m
LEI (7)
€20m
Brentford's attack is €35m less valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€228m vs €263m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
FUL (3)
€28m
LEI (4)
€13m
Brentford's midfield is €76m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€128m vs €52m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
LEI (11)
€36m
Brentford's defence is €26m less valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€209m vs €236m).
England: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →