Brentford are tipped to win, with a 61% chance of triumph, a 23% chance of a draw and a 15% chance of Sunderland taking the spoils. The model predicts an average of 2.9 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1% probability. Brentford, playing at home against a similar-strength side, average 1.67 goals scored and concede 1.0. Sunderland, on the road against a similar opponent, average 1.25 goals scored and concede 1.5. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (97.9% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.5% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (94.3% with a 3% edge) and Home +2 handicap (94.1% with a 3% edge).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brentford win
61.1%
Avg Implied 57.9% · @ 1.64
Edge
+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Dafabet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Draw
23.3%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.90
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.11
Marathonbet
4.05
BetVictor
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
Dafabet
3.95
Sunderland win
15.6%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.34
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.48
Pinnacle
5.42
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brentford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.13
1.62
1.00
1.65
1.24
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
1.00
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.73
1.09
1.67
1.00
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.33
-
-
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.30
0.92
1.00
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.32
1.00
1.10
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.9%
@ 1.26+4.3%
Under 1.5
21.1%
@ 3.69-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
BetVictor
1.27
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Under
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Pinnacle
3.85
Betano
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.4%
@ 1.84+2.6%
Under 2.5
45.6%
@ 1.98-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
SBO
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Under
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
SBO
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.1%
@ 3.03+1.1%
Under 3.5
67.9%
@ 1.36-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.17
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.05
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to score
Yes
52.0%
@ 1.80+0.2%
No
48.0%
@ 1.94-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
No
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%@ 7.08+4.7%
2-0
11.0%@ 7.52+4.9%
1-0
10.2%@ 6.70+3.4%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.63+3.9%
3-0
7.2%@ 12.01+3.4%
0-0
6.8%@ 10.42+2.4%
3-1
6.5%@ 12.50+2.8%
1-2
4.6%@ 15.21+1.5%
Brentford goals ↓
Sunderland goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
4.2%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
1
10%
11%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.9%
4.5%
1.3%
0.3%
3
7.2%
6.5%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
4
3.5%
3.2%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brentford goals (down), columns = Sunderland goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Brentford is 0.03 points worse than Sunderland in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Brentford is 0.34 goals better than Sunderland in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Brentford is 0.11 goals worse than Sunderland in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Brentford is 2.2 percentage points better than Sunderland in terms of average possession (47% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brentford
For 5.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 8.8 · Total 19.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sunderland
For 4.2 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brentford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
8.9
10.7
3.6
3.4
3.8
19.8
20.1
19.6
vs Stronger (9)
10.3
8.8
11.6
4.3
5.0
3.8
18.2
19.5
17.2
vs Similar (37)
9.9
8.9
10.9
3.6
3.1
4.1
20.4
20.2
20.5
vs Weaker (4)
8.5
-
8.5
2.2
-
2.2
18.2
-
18.2
% over line
60%
50%
68%
48%
45%
50%
34%
41%
29%
% under line
40%
50%
32%
52%
55%
50%
66%
59%
71%
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.2
9.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
22.7
22.3
23.0
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
10.0
9.5
2.5
2.8
2.2
21.6
23.0
20.2
vs Similar (34)
8.6
8.7
8.6
4.5
4.4
4.6
22.9
22.1
23.7
vs Weaker (8)
10.2
10.5
10.0
4.4
4.0
4.8
22.5
22.5
22.5
% over line
44%
46%
42%
56%
50%
62%
64%
62%
65%
% under line
56%
54%
58%
44%
50%
38%
36%
38%
35%
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.7
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Tottenham
10.1
Chelsea
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Brighton
9.7
Nottingham Forest
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Everton
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Sunderland
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
4.5
Tottenham
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.2
Sunderland
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Brentford
3.7
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.9
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Chelsea
22.7
Sunderland
22.7
Leeds
22.1
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Newcastle
21.8
Everton
21.6
Manchester United
21.5
Liverpool
21.4
Coventry
21.4
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
20.0
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.9%
@ 1.75-7.4%
Under 9.5
54.1%
@ 1.99+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.85
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Unibet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.7%
@ 1.68-3.0%
Under 3.5
47.3%
@ 2.11+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.80
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.23
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.05
Unibet
1.87
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
50.8%
@ 1.87+0.7%
Under 21.5
49.2%
@ 1.88-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.88
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brentford or Draw
83.1%
Avg Implied 81.6% · @ 1.16
Edge
+1.5%
61%
23%
16%
covers Brentford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Brentford or Sunderland
75.3%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
-1.0%
61%
23%
16%
covers Brentford + Sunderland
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Draw or Sunderland
41.6%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.24
Edge
-0.6%
61%
23%
16%
covers Draw + Sunderland
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.29
Marathonbet
2.29
SBO
2.28
Bet365
2.25
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Brentford over/under 0.5
Over
83.9%
@ 1.13+1.7%
Under
16.1%
@ 5.22-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
5.20
Betano
5.10
Brentford over/under 1.5
Over
54.5%
@ 1.71-0.3%
Under
45.5%
@ 2.08+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
BetVictor
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Brentford over/under 2.5
Over
27.7%
@ 3.23-1.2%
Under
72.3%
@ 1.31+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.41
BetVictor
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.24
Under
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Brentford over/under 3.5
Over
11.3%
@ 6.73-2.5%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.08+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Unibet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Sunderland over/under 0.5
Over
58.9%
@ 1.56-0.6%
Under
41.1%
@ 2.30+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Betano
2.32
10Bet
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Sunderland over/under 1.5
Over
22.4%
@ 3.76-2.5%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.24+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.01
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.82
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Sunderland over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
@ 10.38-2.9%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Unibet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Sunderland over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
@ 27.00-2.3%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Brentford, so a minus line means Brentford give that many goals of a start and Sunderland receive them. At -1, Brentford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Brentford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Brentford)
Brentford -2
16.2%
@ 5.26-0.8%
Draw -2
18.4%
@ 4.60-1.1%
Sunderland +2
65.5%
@ 1.41+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
5.10
Marathonbet
4.95
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.36
Handicap -1 (Brentford)
Brentford -1
34.5%
@ 2.67+1.0%
Draw -1
23.9%
@ 3.44-2.2%
Sunderland +1
41.6%
@ 2.22+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.29
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.18
Handicap +1 (Brentford)
Brentford +1
83.1%
@ 1.15+5.4%
Draw +1
11.1%
@ 6.24-3.2%
Sunderland -1
5.8%
@ 11.20-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.05
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
11.00
Unibet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Brentford)
Brentford +2
94.2%
@ 1.03+2.5%
Draw +2
4.4%
@ 16.00-1.6%
Sunderland -2
1.4%
@ 40.00-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brentford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.77
0.46
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
-
-
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.38
0.38
0.35
0.82
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.68
0.40
0.50
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.3%
@ 1.37+2.5%
Under 0.5
28.7%
@ 3.00-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Under
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.12
Unibet
3.05
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.7%
@ 2.69-0.2%
Under 1.5
65.3%
@ 1.44+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.74
Marathonbet
2.74
Betano
2.72
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 6.71-1.3%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.09+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.45
Under
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brentford over/under 0.5 HT
Over
57.1%
@ 1.69+2.0%
Under
42.9%
@ 2.08-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.65
Under
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Brentford over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.7%
@ 4.31-3.7%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.18+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Betano
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Brentford over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
@ 9.75-5.5%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Sunderland over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.3%
@ 2.75+0.4%
Under
65.7%
@ 1.41-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Unibet
1.40
Sunderland over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.9%
@ 9.93-1.4%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.02+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Sunderland over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
@ 14.00-5.6%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brentford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.85
0.54
0.88
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
1.00
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.55
0.83
0.50
0.90
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
-
-
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sunderland) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sunderland
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.54
0.62
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.60
0.60
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.8%
@ 1.22+4.9%
Under 0.5
18.2%
@ 4.05-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
10Bet
4.20
Betano
4.15
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Unibet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.0%
@ 2.01+4.3%
Under 1.5
49.0%
@ 1.76-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
William Hil
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.0%
@ 4.16-1.5%
Under 2.5
79.0%
@ 1.21+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brentford over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.6%
@ 1.45+3.4%
Under
32.4%
@ 2.60-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.55
Brentford over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.8%
@ 3.08-4.3%
Under
74.2%
@ 1.32+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Brentford over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.0%
@ 7.65-5.1%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.05+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.40
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.02
Sunderland over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.3%
@ 2.24+2.7%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.59-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.25
Betano
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Sunderland over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.1%
@ 7.43-0.3%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.06+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.80
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Sunderland over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
@ 12.50-4.6%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home +2 handicap
94.2%
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
+2.5%
Under 5.5
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+2.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+2.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.1%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+1.4%
Home under 3.5 goals
88.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+2.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+0.3%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
+1.3%
Under 4.5
86.0%
1.11
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+2.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
83.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
+1.7%
Home or Draw
83.1%
1.16
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
+1.5%
Home +1 handicap
83.1%
1.15
Marathonbet
1.18
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
+5.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.3%
1.18
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.17
+3.7%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.22
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+4.9%
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+7.9%
Under 25.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
+1.5%
Over 1.5
78.9%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
BetVictor
1.27
Betano
1.27
Betfair
1.25
+4.3%
Away under 1.5 goals
77.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+2.5%
Under 11.5 corners
76.8%
1.35
Unibet
1.42
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
Betfair
1.29
+8.7%
Home or Away
75.3%
1.24
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
-1.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.2%
1.32
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
-
+4.3%
Over 2.5 cards
73.1%
1.33
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+3.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
72.3%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
+1.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.37
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
+2.5%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brentford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Wilson33%
Mikkel Damsgaard33%
Nathan Collins33%
Vitaly Janelt33%
Aaron Hickey33%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaly Janelt67%
Nathan Collins33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sangare67%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Yehor Yarmoliuk33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Nathan Collins0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Collins33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Sunderland · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marc Guiu33%
Brian Brobbey22%
Wilson Isidor17%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Habib Diarra14%
Chemsdine Talbi13%
Eliezer Mayenda9%
Nordi Mukiele9%
Bertrand Traoré8%
Simon Adingra7%
Daniel Ballard6%
Trai Hume5%
Chris Rigg5%
Omar Alderete3%
Granit Xhaka3%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Luke O'Nien0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Romaine Mundle0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Nilson Angulo0%
Noah Sadiki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Masuaku50%
Noah Sadiki31%
Reinildo Mandava28%
Trai Hume28%
Habib Diarra27%
Granit Xhaka25%
Dan Neil25%
Melker Ellborg25%
Dennis Cirkin20%
Brian Brobbey19%
Omar Alderete18%
Nordi Mukiele17%
Daniel Ballard16%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Luke O'Nien13%
Simon Adingra13%
Nilson Angulo11%
Robin Roefs11%
Bertrand Traoré8%
Lutsharel Geertruida7%
Romaine Mundle6%
Wilson Isidor6%
Chris Rigg5%
Jenson Seelt0%
Chemsdine Talbi0%
Eliezer Mayenda0%
Marc Guiu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Granit Xhaka17%
Enzo Le Fée15%
Habib Diarra9%
Nordi Mukiele9%
Luke O'Nien7%
Chris Rigg5%
Eliezer Mayenda4%
Reinildo Mandava4%
Chemsdine Talbi3%
Brian Brobbey3%
Omar Alderete3%
Noah Sadiki3%
Trai Hume2%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Daniel Ballard0%
Wilson Isidor0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Romaine Mundle0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Simon Adingra0%
Nilson Angulo0%
Marc Guiu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Marc Guiu33%
Habib Diarra14%
Romaine Mundle12%
Nilson Angulo11%
Daniel Ballard6%
Brian Brobbey6%
Omar Alderete6%
Wilson Isidor6%
Eliezer Mayenda4%
Chemsdine Talbi3%
Trai Hume2%
Bertrand Traoré0%
Nordi Mukiele0%
Granit Xhaka0%
Arthur Masuaku0%
Dan Neil0%
Luke O'Nien0%
Enzo Le Fée0%
Reinildo Mandava0%
Lutsharel Geertruida0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Robin Roefs0%
Melker Ellborg0%
Jenson Seelt0%
Simon Adingra0%
Chris Rigg0%
Noah Sadiki0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Brentford's squad is €173m more valuable than Sunderland's (€565m vs €392m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Brentford's attack is €71m more valuable than Sunderland's (€228m vs €157m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Brentford's midfield is €18m more valuable than Sunderland's (€128m vs €110m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Brentford's defence is €84m more valuable than Sunderland's (€209m vs €125m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham