Brentford host Tottenham in a highly anticipated Premier League match, with both teams coming off contrasting recent performances. Brentford drew with Liverpool in their last outing, while Tottenham secured a 1-0 win over Everton. This matchup is finely balanced, with Brentford's home advantage and Tottenham's away form making it difficult to predict a clear favourite.
The model predicts a home win, with a 41% probability of Brentford emerging victorious, 27% chance of a draw, and 32% probability of Tottenham winning. The expected total goals is 3.0, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%.
Brentford have been scoring 1.75 goals and conceding 1 goal on average at home, while Tottenham have been scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.57 goals on average away from home against similar-strength opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.5% probability. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, with 80.5% probability, and there is a 2% edge in this selection. The home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 32%.
Results analysis
Brentford’s recent form, highlighted by a 3-0 win over Tottenham, set the stage for the home side to extend their run. The model predicted a home win with a 41% probability, and the result matched that call. The final score was 3-0, confirming the actual result as a home victory. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 hit at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 96.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.6%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.9%, and Home under 3.5 goals hit at 92.4%. All picks settled in favour of the model’s predictions.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brentford win✓ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.22
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.40
Dafabet
2.46
1xBet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.13
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.66
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.84
Bet365
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Marathonbet
3.78
BetVictor
3.70
Tottenham win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.18
Edge
+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.44
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.38
Marathonbet
3.38
Superbet
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brentford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.23
1.62
1.08
1.24
1.35
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.83
1.00
1.00
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.18
1.67
1.08
1.70
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.60
1.44
1.62
1.07
1.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
3.00
1.50
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.23
1.54
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
-
-
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
@ 1.21+2.8%
Under 1.5
19.5%
@ 4.21-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
888Sport
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.71+0.4%
Under 2.5
43.4%
@ 2.19-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Under
SBO
2.33
1xBet
2.31
Pinnacle
2.29
Unibet
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
@ 2.75-0.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
@ 1.45+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Betano
2.70
Pinnacle
2.67
Superbet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.4%
@ 1.59+1.1%
No
39.6%
@ 2.31-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.55
No
Betfair
2.50
888Sport
2.45
William Hil
2.40
Unibet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.80+5.1%
2-1
9.0%@ 8.55+3.1%
1-2
7.8%@ 10.33+2.9%
1-0
7.1%@ 9.38+1.8%
2-0
6.5%@ 11.69+2.3%
0-0
6.4%@ 13.56+2.7%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.84+1.9%
0-1
6.0%@ 11.60+1.7%
Brentford goals ↓
Tottenham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.0%
4.9%
2.2%
0.8%
1
7.1%
12%
7.8%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.5%
9.0%
6.1%
2.8%
1.0%
3
3.4%
4.7%
3.2%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brentford goals (down), columns = Tottenham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Brentford is 0.32 points better than Tottenham in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Brentford is 0.18 goals better than Tottenham in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Brentford is 0.13 goals better than Tottenham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Brentford is 2.8 percentage points worse than Tottenham in terms of average possession (47% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brentford
For 4.3 · Against 6.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 18.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tottenham
For 7.1 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 10.7 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brentford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
8.9
10.7
3.7
3.4
4.0
19.6
19.5
19.6
vs Stronger (9)
10.3
8.8
11.6
4.3
5.0
3.8
18.2
19.5
17.2
vs Similar (38)
9.9
8.9
10.8
3.7
3.1
4.3
20.1
19.5
20.6
vs Weaker (3)
8.0
-
8.0
2.0
-
2.0
17.3
-
17.3
% over line
58%
50%
64%
50%
45%
54%
34%
36%
32%
% under line
42%
50%
36%
50%
55%
46%
66%
64%
68%
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.8
8.8
4.7
5.3
4.0
22.7
23.5
22.0
vs Stronger (5)
7.6
7.0
8.0
4.0
4.5
3.7
25.2
27.5
23.7
vs Similar (41)
10.0
10.7
9.2
4.8
5.5
4.1
22.7
23.4
21.9
vs Weaker (4)
11.5
16.0
7.0
3.8
3.5
4.0
20.0
20.5
19.5
% over line
46%
56%
36%
70%
80%
60%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
54%
44%
64%
30%
20%
40%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.5
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Chelsea
9.9
Brentford
9.9
Ipswich
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Brighton
9.8
Coventry
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Everton
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.7
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Sunderland
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Brighton
4.0
Brentford
3.8
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Everton
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.0
Aston Villa
23.7
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Chelsea
23.0
Sunderland
22.8
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Leeds
21.8
Newcastle
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Coventry
21.0
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.9%
@ 1.62-11.2%
Under 9.5
54.1%
@ 2.16+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
Under
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.3%
@ 1.66-4.0%
Under 3.5
47.7%
@ 2.13+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
43.8%
@ 1.75-9.3%
Under 21.5
56.2%
@ 1.98+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.61
Under
1xBet
2.11
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.87
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brentford or Draw✓ Hit
68.0%
Avg Implied 69.7% · @ 1.36
Edge
-1.7%
41%
27%
32%
covers Brentford + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Brentford or Tottenham✓ Hit
73.4%
Avg Implied 74.4% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.1%
41%
27%
32%
covers Brentford + Tottenham
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Draw or Tottenham✗ Miss
58.6%
Avg Implied 55.9% · @ 1.69
Edge
+2.7%
41%
27%
32%
covers Draw + Tottenham
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
SBO
1.76
Betano
1.75
888Sport
1.75
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Brentford over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.5%
@ 1.17-0.3%
Under
20.5%
@ 4.61+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Brentford over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.9%
@ 1.86-3.2%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.87+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Brentford over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.2%
@ 3.71-3.9%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.25+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Pinnacle
3.83
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
Marathonbet
3.66
Under
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Brentford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 7.99-4.1%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.06+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
888Sport
8.50
Superbet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Tottenham over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
74.6%
@ 1.29+2.3%
Under
25.4%
@ 3.37-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
10Bet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.54
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Tottenham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.8%
@ 2.41+0.9%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.53-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.48
Superbet
2.45
Under
10Bet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.54
Unibet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
888Sport
1.53
Tottenham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.9%
@ 5.54-0.9%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.12+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Tottenham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 12.78-2.4%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Under
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Brentford, so a minus line means Brentford give that many goals of a start and Tottenham receive them. At -1, Brentford must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Brentford win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Brentford)Actual: Brentford
Brentford -2
8.7%
@ 11.99+0.8%
Draw -2
12.7%
@ 7.06-0.7%
Tottenham +2
78.6%
@ 1.20-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
34.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.60
Unibet
7.50
Draw
10Bet
13.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.85
Away
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (Brentford)Actual: Brentford
Brentford -1
21.4%
@ 4.55+0.9%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 4.20-2.3%
Tottenham +1
58.6%
@ 1.63+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
9.00
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Draw
10Bet
5.50
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.85
Away
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.70
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Handicap +1 (Brentford)Actual: Brentford
Brentford +1
68.0%
@ 1.38+2.1%
Draw +1
17.1%
@ 4.83-1.7%
Tottenham -1
14.8%
@ 5.99-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw
Superbet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.80
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.20
Unibet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Brentford)Actual: Brentford
Brentford +2
85.2%
@ 1.11+3.7%
Draw +2
9.6%
@ 7.88-1.9%
Tottenham -2
5.3%
@ 12.59-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
12.50
10Bet
12.00
Marathonbet
6.45
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brentford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.62
0.46
0.53
0.65
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.60
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.64
0.67
0.50
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.69
0.75
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.81
0.71
0.64
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.9%
@ 1.31+2.0%
Under 0.5
26.1%
@ 3.35-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Under
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 2.40-1.0%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.54+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.53
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.49
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
William Hil
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 5.58-2.8%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.12+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
1xBet
5.55
Marathonbet
5.55
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brentford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
58.2%
@ 1.78+5.9%
Under
41.8%
@ 1.95-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Brentford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
18.4%
@ 4.79-0.8%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.14+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Betano
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Superbet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Brentford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 12.25-3.3%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Tottenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.6%
@ 2.09-6.0%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.68+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.66
Unibet
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Tottenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 6.51-4.2%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.07+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Unibet
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Tottenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 17.25-3.9%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brentford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.62
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.55
1.00
0.58
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tottenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tottenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.75
0.88
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.73
0.71
0.79
0.58
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Brentford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.3%
Under 1.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.9%
Under 2.5
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brentford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.7%
Under
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brentford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tottenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.07
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
1.11
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
84.1%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+15.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
1.12
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.12
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.3%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Betfair
1.18
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.8%
1.29
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.25
-
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.6%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+0.8%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.5%
1.21
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.21
Bet365
1.20
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Unibet
1.26
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
1.20
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Betfair
1.20
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
76.7%
1.46
Superbet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
+13.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.9%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.4%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
888Sport
1.29
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.8%
1.29
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.22
-
-
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
72.0%
1.62
1xBet
1.62
-
-
-
-
+15.4%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brentford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Wilson33%
Mikkel Damsgaard33%
Nathan Collins33%
Vitaly Janelt33%
Aaron Hickey33%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaly Janelt67%
Nathan Collins33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mamadou Sangare67%
Keane Lewis-Potter33%
Jaidon Anthony33%
Yehor Yarmoliuk33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Nathan Collins0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Kevin Schade0%
Igor Thiago0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Michael Kayode0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nathan Collins33%
Kevin Schade33%
Igor Thiago33%
Michael Kayode33%
Callum Wilson0%
Mikkel Damsgaard0%
Vitaly Janelt0%
Aaron Hickey0%
Keane Lewis-Potter0%
Jaidon Anthony0%
Yehor Yarmoliuk0%
Mamadou Sangare0%
Dango Ouattara0%
Tottenham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominic Solanke33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Mikey Moore0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Rodrigo Bentancur33%
Archie Gray33%
Mateus Fernandes33%
Mikey Moore33%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Mathys Tel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathys Tel33%
Mikey Moore33%
Rodrigo Bentancur0%
Dominic Solanke0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Destiny Udogie0%
Antonín Kinský0%
Archie Gray0%
Mateus Fernandes0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Brentford's squad is €355m less valuable than Tottenham's (€565m vs €920m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Brentford's attack is €22m less valuable than Tottenham's (€228m vs €250m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Brentford's midfield is €154m less valuable than Tottenham's (€128m vs €282m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Brentford's defence is €179m less valuable than Tottenham's (€209m vs €388m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa