This opponent (Reggiana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reggiana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.00
1.20
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
1.00
1.20
0.80
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (18)
0.94
1.56
0.88
1.50
1.00
1.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
@ 2.50+5.3%
Under 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.51-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.1%
No
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0 ✓
10.4%
0-1
9.8%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.3%
Brescia goals ↓
Reggiana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.8%
6.8%
2.8%
0.8%
1
9.4%
14%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.3%
7.7%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brescia goals (down), columns = Reggiana goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Parma
2.00
Como
1.92
Venezia
1.90
Cremonese
1.71
Catanzaro
1.51
Sampdoria
1.46
Palermo
1.44
Brescia
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.24
Modena
1.24
Reggiana
1.24
Cittadella
1.21
Pisa
1.21
Spezia
1.16
Bari
1.12
Ternana
1.10
Ascoli
1.08
FeralpiSalo
0.87
Lecco
0.68
Brescia is 0.10 points better than Reggiana in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Venezia
1.74
Parma
1.74
Palermo
1.59
Catanzaro
1.56
Como
1.53
Sampdoria
1.36
Pisa
1.34
Cremonese
1.33
Cosenza
1.24
Sudtirol
1.21
Brescia
1.18
FeralpiSalo
1.16
Ternana
1.10
Modena
1.08
Cittadella
1.05
Bari
1.05
Ascoli
1.00
Reggiana
1.00
Spezia
0.95
Lecco
0.92
Brescia is 0.18 goals better than Reggiana in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cremonese
0.86
Parma
0.92
Como
1.05
Brescia
1.08
Cosenza
1.11
Ascoli
1.11
Venezia
1.12
Reggiana
1.18
Cittadella
1.24
Modena
1.24
Bari
1.25
Sudtirol
1.26
Spezia
1.29
Sampdoria
1.33
Ternana
1.35
Palermo
1.37
Catanzaro
1.41
Pisa
1.42
FeralpiSalo
1.71
Lecco
1.95
Brescia is 0.11 goals better than Reggiana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Catanzaro
58%
Pisa
56%
Cremonese
56%
Venezia
52%
Reggiana
52%
Como
51%
Spezia
51%
Sampdoria
51%
Parma
50%
Bari
50%
Palermo
50%
Modena
50%
Cosenza
49%
Brescia
48%
Sudtirol
48%
Cittadella
47%
Lecco
47%
FeralpiSalo
45%
Ascoli
45%
Ternana
44%
Brescia is 3.5 percentage points worse than Reggiana in terms of average possession (48% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brescia
For 4.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 15.4 · Total 31.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Reggiana
For 3.6 · Against 5.3 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 7.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 17.2 · Total 31.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brescia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.5
2.8
2.9
2.7
30.0
30.1
30.0
vs Stronger (21)
9.1
9.8
8.7
2.4
2.2
2.7
27.7
25.0
29.5
vs Similar (28)
9.4
9.5
9.2
3.0
3.5
2.5
31.2
32.6
29.3
vs Weaker (1)
16.0
-
16.0
5.0
-
5.0
37.0
-
37.0
% over line
40%
50%
31%
44%
50%
38%
88%
92%
85%
% under line
60%
50%
69%
56%
50%
62%
12%
8%
15%
This opponent (Reggiana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reggiana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.9
9.4
5.6
6.2
5.0
30.8
30.1
31.5
vs Stronger (16)
9.9
9.1
10.6
5.6
6.3
5.1
29.7
27.1
31.7
vs Similar (31)
9.5
10.1
8.7
5.6
6.0
5.1
31.5
31.6
31.4
vs Weaker (3)
10.3
11.0
9.0
5.7
7.0
3.0
28.3
27.5
30.0
% over line
48%
50%
46%
80%
81%
79%
96%
96%
96%
% under line
52%
50%
54%
20%
19%
21%
4%
4%
4%
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Parma
10.7
Bari
10.3
Brescia
10.3
Ternana
10.2
Palermo
10.1
Venezia
10.1
Modena
9.9
Pisa
9.9
Spezia
9.8
Como
9.7
Cremonese
9.7
Reggiana
9.7
Ascoli
9.6
Lecco
9.4
Cosenza
9.2
FeralpiSalo
8.8
Cittadella
8.8
Catanzaro
8.7
Sampdoria
8.4
Sudtirol
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pisa
6.4
Cosenza
6.4
Ascoli
6.0
Cittadella
6.0
Lecco
6.0
Sudtirol
5.9
Modena
5.7
Spezia
5.7
Catanzaro
5.6
Reggiana
5.6
Sampdoria
5.5
Parma
5.4
Cremonese
5.4
FeralpiSalo
5.4
Como
5.2
Bari
5.2
Palermo
5.2
Brescia
5.2
Venezia
5.1
Ternana
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cittadella
32.3
Ascoli
31.4
Reggiana
30.8
Sudtirol
30.5
Palermo
30.2
Como
30.0
Pisa
29.6
Bari
29.3
Catanzaro
29.3
Modena
29.1
Sampdoria
29.1
Spezia
28.9
Cremonese
28.5
Cosenza
28.2
Brescia
28.2
Ternana
28.0
Parma
27.8
Lecco
27.5
FeralpiSalo
26.8
Venezia
25.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.6%
Under 9.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
86.4%
Under 3.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.3%
Under 21.5
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brescia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.63
0.29
0.43
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (13)
0.08
1.08
0.00
0.80
0.12
1.25
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.31
0.44
0.22
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Reggiana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reggiana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.44
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.83
0.12
0.75
0.40
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brescia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brescia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.71
0.57
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.15
0.60
0.40
0.62
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.69
0.78
0.67
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Reggiana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Reggiana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.72
0.75
0.75
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Brescia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brescia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brescia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Reggiana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brescia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gennaro Borrelli29%
Gabriele Moncini26%
Birkir Bjarnason13%
Flavio Bianchi10%
Dimitri Bisoli9%
Nicolas Galazzi9%
Alexander Jallow8%
Davide Adorni4%
Fabrizio Paghera4%
Massimo Bertagnoli4%
Andrea Papetti3%
Lorenzo Dickmann3%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Massimiliano Mangraviti0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Giacomo Olzer0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Matteo Ferro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrea Cistana39%
Fabrizio Paghera36%
Mohamed Fares31%
Lorenzo Dickmann22%
Giacomo Olzer21%
Dimitri Bisoli21%
Tom Van De Looi19%
Massimo Bertagnoli18%
Nicolas Galazzi18%
Davide Adorni16%
Alexander Jallow16%
Matthieu Huard16%
Gennaro Borrelli14%
Michele Besaggio14%
Lorenzo Andrenacci11%
Matteo Ferro10%
Andrea Papetti9%
Gabriele Moncini9%
Birkir Bjarnason8%
Riccardo Fogliata8%
Luca Lezzerini4%
Massimiliano Mangraviti4%
Flavio Bianchi3%
Michele Avella0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Galazzi15%
Dimitri Bisoli12%
Lorenzo Dickmann8%
Riccardo Fogliata8%
Gennaro Borrelli7%
Andrea Papetti6%
Gabriele Moncini6%
Andrea Cistana4%
Fabrizio Paghera4%
Alexander Jallow4%
Massimiliano Mangraviti4%
Flavio Bianchi3%
Birkir Bjarnason0%
Davide Adorni0%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Massimo Bertagnoli0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Giacomo Olzer0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Matteo Ferro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gabriele Moncini23%
Flavio Bianchi13%
Gennaro Borrelli11%
Giacomo Olzer7%
Lorenzo Dickmann5%
Birkir Bjarnason5%
Dimitri Bisoli3%
Davide Adorni0%
Mohamed Fares0%
Lorenzo Andrenacci0%
Andrea Cistana0%
Fabrizio Paghera0%
Luca Lezzerini0%
Tom Van De Looi0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Massimiliano Mangraviti0%
Massimo Bertagnoli0%
Michele Avella0%
Matthieu Huard0%
Andrea Papetti0%
Nicolas Galazzi0%
Michele Besaggio0%
Riccardo Fogliata0%
Matteo Ferro0%
Reggiana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Vido33%
Natan Girma19%
Cedric Gondo16%
Janis Antiste14%
Manolo Portanova14%
Eric Lanini12%
Edoardo Pieragnolo12%
Stefano Pettinari11%
Alessandro Bianco6%
Luca Cigarini5%
Paolo Rozzio4%
Elvis Kabashi4%
Filippo Melegoni4%
Riccardo Fiamozzi3%
Alessandro Marcandalli3%
Tobías Reinhart0%
Giacomo Satalino0%
Filippo Romagna0%
Filippo Nardi0%
Mario Sampirisi0%
Marko Pajač0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Przemysław Szymiński0%
Álex Blanco0%
Domen Črnigoj0%
Orji Okwonkwo0%
Lorenzo Libutti0%
Jacopo Da Riva0%
Muhamed Varela Djamanca0%
Antonio Vergara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Cigarini43%
Alessandro Bianco43%
Elvis Kabashi31%
Natan Girma31%
Paolo Rozzio25%
Edoardo Pieragnolo24%
Manolo Portanova22%
Domen Črnigoj19%
Cedric Gondo16%
Filippo Romagna15%
Przemysław Szymiński14%
Alessandro Marcandalli14%
Antonio Vergara14%
Mario Sampirisi12%
Filippo Melegoni11%
Lorenzo Libutti11%
Filippo Nardi8%
Janis Antiste7%
Riccardo Fiamozzi7%
Francesco Bardi7%
Muhamed Varela Djamanca4%
Tobías Reinhart0%
Giacomo Satalino0%
Stefano Pettinari0%
Marko Pajač0%
Luca Vido0%
Eric Lanini0%
Álex Blanco0%
Orji Okwonkwo0%
Jacopo Da Riva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Riccardo Fiamozzi10%
Edoardo Pieragnolo9%
Manolo Portanova8%
Filippo Romagna8%
Mario Sampirisi8%
Elvis Kabashi8%
Domen Črnigoj6%
Stefano Pettinari5%
Luca Cigarini5%
Muhamed Varela Djamanca4%
Natan Girma4%
Filippo Melegoni4%
Janis Antiste4%
Alessandro Marcandalli3%
Alessandro Bianco3%
Tobías Reinhart0%
Giacomo Satalino0%
Filippo Nardi0%
Marko Pajač0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Luca Vido0%
Przemysław Szymiński0%
Eric Lanini0%
Álex Blanco0%
Orji Okwonkwo0%
Lorenzo Libutti0%
Cedric Gondo0%
Paolo Rozzio0%
Jacopo Da Riva0%
Antonio Vergara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cedric Gondo13%
Manolo Portanova8%
Elvis Kabashi8%
Janis Antiste7%
Luca Cigarini5%
Paolo Rozzio4%
Natan Girma4%
Tobías Reinhart0%
Giacomo Satalino0%
Filippo Romagna0%
Filippo Nardi0%
Mario Sampirisi0%
Stefano Pettinari0%
Marko Pajač0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Luca Vido0%
Filippo Melegoni0%
Przemysław Szymiński0%
Riccardo Fiamozzi0%
Eric Lanini0%
Álex Blanco0%
Domen Črnigoj0%
Orji Okwonkwo0%
Lorenzo Libutti0%
Jacopo Da Riva0%
Muhamed Varela Djamanca0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Alessandro Bianco0%
Edoardo Pieragnolo0%
Antonio Vergara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie B 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Venezia
Parma
Como
Cremonese
Catanzaro
Palermo
Sampdoria
Cosenza
Sudtirol
Modena
Pisa
Cittadella
Bari
Ternana
Spezia
Ascoli
FeralpiSalo
Lecco