Brickfield Rangers are tipped to win this home fixture, a result that the model deems most likely. Their recent form, highlighted by a win over Ruthin Town, shows a solid 2-0 performance, and the team averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.86 conceded against similarly ranked opponents. Caersws, riding a two-game winning streak, have a slightly lower average of 1.82 goals scored and 1.91 conceded away from home. The match is expected to see an average of 3.0 goals, with the most probable total of 2 goals carrying a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7% chance. Home win probability stands at 54%, draw at 25%, and away win at 21%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 80.5% probability and has already hit. All figures are presented in percentage form, with no other outcomes or selections mentioned.
Brickfield Rangers, riding a five-match run that now includes a win over Ruthin Town, secured a 3-1 victory over Caersws, extending their recent form. The model’s favourite, a Home win with a 54% probability, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted outcome. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at an 80.5% probability, also hit, with four goals scored. The predicted most likely score of 2-0 and the 2-1 result were not reached, but the overall prediction framework delivered the correct result and a successful selection.
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.09 | 1.74 | 1.89 | 0.78 | 0.57 | 2.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.40 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 0.86 | 0.88 | 1.88 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.17 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 22% (-0pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.77 | 1.93 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1.78 | 1.22 | 1.82 | 1.91 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.56 | 2.22 | 2.60 | 1.80 | 0.25 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Caersws goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.6% | 12% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.11 | 0.29 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.14 | 0.38 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 65% (+43pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.65 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.33 | 0.89 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.65 | 1.17 | 1.22 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.29 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.25 | 1.88 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Caersws| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.33 | 0.80 | 0.93 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.15 | 1.10 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 1.18 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.22 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/25 | A | 2-0 |
Brickfield Rangers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/02/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 24/01/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/01/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/12/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 21/11/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 6-0 |
Caersws| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 30/01/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/01/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 01/01/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/12/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 5-1 | |
| 06/12/25 | A | 3-0 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 4-3 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Llandudno | 30 | 80 | 87% | 2.7 | 77 | 22 | +55 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Trefelin | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 83 | 17 | +66 | 3.3 | 93% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 3 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 76 | 80% | 2.5 | 75 | 20 | +55 | 3.2 | 87% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Airbus UK | 30 | 75 | 80% | 2.5 | 93 | 22 | +71 | 3.8 | 93% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.9 | 87% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 31 | 60 | 58% | 1.9 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 3.3 | 81% | 61% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 8 | Newtown AFC | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 51 | 49 | +2 | 3.3 | 87% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 | Rhyl | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 37% | 1.5 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 2.8 | 67% | 37% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 2.4 | 63% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Guilsfield | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 41 | 40% | 1.4 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 2.8 | 77% | 60% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 15 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 3.7 | 87% | 77% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 83% | 63% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Brickfield Rangers | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 19 | Treowen Stars | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | - |
| 20 | Newport City | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 2.8 | 70% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 73% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 22 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 24 | Afan Lido | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 3.0 | 67% | 53% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | - |
| 25 | Buckley Town | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 50 | 77 | -27 | 4.2 | 90% | 80% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | - |
| 26 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 29 | 20% | 1.0 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 3.6 | 90% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 27 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 29 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 28 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 47 | 87 | -40 | 4.5 | 90% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | - |
| 29 | Baglan Dragons | 31 | 25 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 30 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 32 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 10 | 3% | 0.3 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 3.4 | 83% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | - |