Brickfield Rangers, fresh from a 2-0 win over Ruthin Town, look poised to continue their strong home spell, while Denbigh Town return from a 1-3 loss to Rhyl and will need to tighten their defense. The model points to a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.6 goals and a 21% chance that the total will be exactly three. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, a 9.4% probability. Home advantage is clear: Brickfield Rangers average 2.36 goals scored and 0.82 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Denbigh Town average 1.64 goals scored and 2.18 conceded on the road. The probabilities for the match outcome are 58% for a home win, 21% for a draw and 21% for an away win, with the model’s pick being a home win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.5%), Under 6.5 (92.7%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%), Home over 0.5 goals (89.8%), Over 1.5 (88.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.3%) and Under 5.5 (84.4%).
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.53 | 1.93 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 2.09 | 1.09 | 2.36 | 0.82 | 1.82 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 2.75 | 0.75 | 2.25 | 0.25 | 3.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 2.23 | 1.54 | 1.69 | 1.53 | 2.65 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.61 | 2.06 | 1.57 | 1.86 | 1.64 | 2.18 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.42 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Denbigh Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.82 | 0.32 | 0.91 | 0.18 | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.53 | 1.59 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.64 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.58 | 1.50 | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.27 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.27 | 0.77 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.38 | 1.75 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.03 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.94 | 1.06 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 96.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 95.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 91.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 89.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 88.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 79.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 70.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/01/26 | H | 1-2 |
Brickfield Rangers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/08/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-6 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Denbigh Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 31/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |