Brickfield Rangers are on a three-game winning run, having beaten Holyhead Hotspur 2-1 in their last match. However, their recent form is tempered by a loss to a stronger team in their last outing, and they have a history of conceding goals at home, averaging 2 per game. Penrhyncoch, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring just 0.75 goals per game against stronger opponents and conceding 2.25 on average.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 2-1 home win for Brickfield Rangers, with a probability of 9.8%. The model's selection is the home win, with a 60% chance of success.
The model also suggests taking the over 1.5 goals selection, which has an 85.7% chance of occurring. In terms of match result, Brickfield Rangers have a 60% chance of winning, a 22% chance of drawing, and an 18% chance of losing to Penrhyncoch.
Brickfield Rangers extended their five-game winning run with a 2-0 triumph over Penrhyncoch, confirming the model’s home win pick at 60 %. The prediction was correct, and the final score matched the favoured 2-0 outcome. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0 %, Under 7.5 at 97.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.0 %, Under 6.5 at 94.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.1 %, Home +2 handicap at 92.7 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.2 %. All picks settled in favour of the model’s predictions, underscoring its strong performance.
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.53 | 1.87 | 1.33 | 1.47 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.05 | 1.10 | 2.20 | 1.00 | 1.91 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.78 | 2.56 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 0.25 | 3.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 2.31 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.48 | 1.96 | 1.92 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 2.23 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.50 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Penrhyncoch goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 9.7% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.67 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.33 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 0.82 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.64 | 1.04 | 0.75 | 1.17 | 0.54 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.03 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.29 | 0.76 | 1.50 | 0.80 | 1.09 | 0.73 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 0.90 | 1.21 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.84 | 0.92 | 1.17 | 0.50 | 0.54 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +7.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 7.5 | 97.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 94.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 94.1% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | +7.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 92.2% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | +4.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 90.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 89.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 88.9% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -0.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 88.8% | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.05 | - | - | - | +2.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 87.5% | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.10 | - | - | - | +5.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 85.8% | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.08 | - | - | - | +1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 85.7% | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.19 | - | +9.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 81.9% | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | - | - | - | +6.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 81.7% | 1.09 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.08 | 1.06 | -3.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 81.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 81.0% | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +13.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 78.4% | 1.13 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.11 | -3.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 75.1% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | +4.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 4-1 |
Brickfield Rangers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-6 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 10/03/26 | H | 0-5 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |