Brickfield Rangers are the clear favourite, their 62 % chance of victory reflecting a solid home form that averages 1.83 goals scored and only one conceded against similar opposition, while Ruthin Town’s away average of 1.27 scored and 2.18 conceded shows a weaker attack. The model picks a home win, and the expected total goals sit at 3.5, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 22 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Brickfield Rangers, with a 9.6 % chance. Home win probability is 62 %, draw 21 %, away win 17 %. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (99 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98 %), Under 7.5 (97.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.1 %), Under 6.5 (93.7 %), Home +2 handicap (93.3 %), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.2 %). Brickfield Rangers’ recent five-game winning streak, capped by a 2-0 win over Penrhyncoch, underlines their confidence, while Ruthin Town’s recent draw and 2-2 result against Guilsfield suggest they may struggle to overturn the home advantage.
The final score was 2-0, a home win that matched the model’s prediction and the favoured result. Brickfield Rangers, coming off a win, extended their good run, while Ruthin Town, after two straight defeats, struggled to find the net. The model’s favourite, Home win, had a 62% probability and proved correct. Every suggested selection hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2%, Under 7.5 at 97.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.0%, Under 6.5 at 93.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.4%, Home +2 handicap at 93.3%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.5%. The model’s predictions were spot on.
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.27 | 1.40 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 2.10 | 1.14 | 2.40 | 0.90 | 1.82 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.78 | 2.56 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 0.25 | 3.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 2.13 | 1.12 | 1.88 | 1.43 | 2.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.22 | 1.70 | 1.15 | 1.54 | 1.30 | 1.90 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.43 | 3.57 | 1.00 | 3.33 | 1.75 | 3.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Ruthin Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 3.7% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.73 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.44 | 0.94 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 0.78 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 1.43 | 0.67 | 1.33 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Brickfield Rangers| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.40 | 0.87 | 0.80 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.33 | 0.81 | 1.60 | 0.70 | 1.09 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.20 | 0.69 | 0.94 | 0.64 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.65 | 0.91 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 2.14 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 7.5 | 97.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 93.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 93.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 93.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 92.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 90.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 88.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 87.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 86.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 86.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 86.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 83.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 83.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home +1 handicap | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Away | 79.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 74.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 73.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/11/25 | A | 1-2 |
Brickfield Rangers| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/08/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-6 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 14/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |