Brighton are tipped to win, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 25% chance of an Everton win. The model expects 2.4 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total with a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% chance, reflecting the balanced attacking and defensive figures: Brighton average 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Everton average 1.22 scored and 0.78 conceded on the road. The suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 78.2%, Under 3.5 at 76.8%, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.3% (miss), Under 5.5 cards at 76.2%, Over 1.5 at 71.5% and Over 19.5 fouls at 70.9%. Brighton’s recent form shows a two-game winning streak, while Everton are coming off a draw, setting the stage for a tightly contested encounter.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Brighton, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s Home win call incorrect. The model had given Brighton a 46% chance of victory, yet the teams could not separate themselves. The game saw 1-1, the most likely score, with 27% probability. The model’s selection of Over 2.5 cards hit, as did Under 3.5, Under 5.5 cards, Over 1.5, and Over 19.5 fouls, each with probabilities of 78.2%, 76.8%, 76.2%, 71.5% and 70.9% respectively. Only Under 25.5 fouls missed, with a 76.3% chance. Brighton’s recent two-game winning streak and Everton’s return from a draw were both highlighted, but neither side could break the deadlock.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brighton winâś— Miss
45.6%
Avg Implied 49.5% · @ 1.91
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.47
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Everton winâś— Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied 23.2% · @ 4.08
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Brighton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.23
1.83
1.17
1.89
1.28
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.67
2.50
1.50
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (22)
1.68
1.23
1.70
1.10
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.07
1.38
1.19
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.25
0.00
1.33
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (21)
1.48
1.05
1.67
1.25
1.22
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.3%
@ 1.98-3.3%
Under 2.5
55.7%
@ 1.80+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.2%
Under 3.5
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.8%
No
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 âś“
13.8%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.6%
Brighton goals ↓
Everton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
7.5%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.9%
9.0%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.3%
4.3%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.5%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brighton goals (down), columns = Everton goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Brighton is 0.11 points better than Everton in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Brighton is 0.13 goals better than Everton in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Brighton is 0.11 goals better than Everton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Brighton is 9.8 percentage points better than Everton in terms of average possession (53% vs 44%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brighton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.56
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.64
0.70
0.50
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.62
0.69
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
0.88
0.00
1.00
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.52
0.83
0.67
0.56
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brighton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brighton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.57
1.17
0.50
1.33
0.61
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.59
1.00
0.60
1.25
0.58
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
-
-
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Everton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Everton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.75
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.00
0.33
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.52
0.83
0.58
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brighton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Everton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 5.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
BUR (28)
€115m
Brighton's squad is €160m more valuable than Everton's (€620m vs €459m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
BUR (14)
€70m
Brighton's attack is €16m more valuable than Everton's (€190m vs €174m).
đź§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
FUL (3)
€28m
BUR (3)
€8m
Brighton's midfield is €18m more valuable than Everton's (€180m vs €162m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
BUR (11)
€37m
Brighton's defence is €126m more valuable than Everton's (€249m vs €123m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →