This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.97
2.40
0.93
2.07
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.00
1.36
1.75
1.75
2.14
1.14
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
0.74
2.64
0.64
2.00
0.88
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
6.6%
1-0
6.5%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
Brighton goals ↓
Liverpool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.6%
5.8%
2.9%
1.1%
1
6.5%
13%
8.5%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.3%
6.2%
3.1%
1.1%
3
2.7%
4.1%
3.0%
1.5%
0.6%
4
1.0%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brighton goals (down), columns = Liverpool goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newcastle
2.71
Sheffield Weds
2.50
Tottenham
2.40
Fleetwood Town
2.33
Crystal Palace
2.25
Manchester United
2.00
Derby
2.00
Everton
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Watford
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Fulham
2.00
Coventry
2.00
Arsenal
1.80
Southampton
1.75
Preston
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Stoke
1.75
Walsall
1.67
Oxford
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
West Ham
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Millwall
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Cardiff
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Chelsea
1.50
Crawley Town
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Harrogate
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Barrow
1.33
Leicester
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Barnsley
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Luton
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Reading
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Shrewsbury
0.50
Colchester
0.50
Grimsby
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Gillingham
0.00
Bromley
0.00
Lincoln
0.00
Wrexham
0.00
Newport County
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Burton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Stockport
0.00
Salford
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Cambridge
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
West Brom
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Hull
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Port Vale
0.00
Brighton and Liverpool are level in average points per game (both 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester United
5.00
Blackburn
3.50
Notts County
3.00
Brighton
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
Watford
2.67
Southampton
2.50
Liverpool
2.50
Huddersfield
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Crystal Palace
2.50
Chelsea
2.50
Stoke
2.50
Sheffield Weds
2.25
Arsenal
2.20
Wrexham
2.00
Everton
2.00
Preston
2.00
Leyton Orient
2.00
Blackpool
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Crawley Town
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Sheffield United
2.00
Reading
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Newcastle
1.86
Tottenham
1.80
Fleetwood Town
1.67
Shrewsbury
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.50
Aston Villa
1.50
Swansea
1.50
Brentford
1.50
Fulham
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Tranmere
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Walsall
1.33
Wycombe
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Bolton
1.33
Luton
1.00
Oxford
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Barrow
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Newport County
1.00
West Ham
1.00
Derby
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Stockport
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Grimsby
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Cambridge
1.00
Chesterfield
1.00
Harrogate
1.00
Coventry
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Hull
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Barnsley
0.67
Birmingham
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Bristol City
0.00
Charlton
0.00
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Accrington
0.00
Burton
0.00
Burnley
0.00
Sunderland
0.00
Salford
0.00
Morecambe
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Cheltenham
0.00
Carlisle
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leeds
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Brighton is 0.50 goals better than Liverpool in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Newcastle
0.43
Oxford
0.50
Derby
0.50
Everton
0.50
Millwall
0.50
Fulham
0.50
Blackpool
0.67
Watford
0.67
Wycombe
0.67
Coventry
0.67
Sheffield Weds
0.75
Luton
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Bristol City
1.00
Charlton
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Wigan
1.00
Nottingham Forest
1.00
Swansea
1.00
Preston
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Exeter
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Plymouth
1.00
Chelsea
1.00
Stoke
1.00
Bournemouth
1.00
Bradford
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Liverpool
1.17
Brentford
1.25
Crystal Palace
1.25
Leyton Orient
1.33
QPR
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.33
Arsenal
1.40
Aston Villa
1.50
Blackburn
1.50
Doncaster
1.50
Huddersfield
1.50
Colchester
1.50
Wolves
1.50
Rotherham
1.50
Manchester City
1.50
Sheffield United
1.50
Brighton
1.67
Leicester
1.67
Tottenham
1.80
Bromley
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Burnley
2.00
Sunderland
2.00
Tranmere
2.00
Salford
2.00
Crewe
2.00
Carlisle
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
West Brom
2.00
Reading
2.00
Hull
2.00
Ipswich
2.00
Northampton
2.00
Bolton
2.00
Barrow
2.33
Shrewsbury
2.50
Middlesbrough
2.50
West Ham
2.50
Cardiff
2.50
Barnsley
2.67
Gillingham
3.00
Notts County
3.00
Accrington
3.00
Grimsby
3.00
Morecambe
3.00
Cheltenham
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Harrogate
3.00
Leeds
3.00
Port Vale
3.00
Norwich
3.50
Wrexham
4.00
Newport County
4.00
Swindon
4.00
Burton
4.00
Stevenage
4.00
Milton Keynes Dons
5.00
Stockport
6.00
Brighton is 0.50 goals worse than Liverpool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brighton
For 6.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 11.1 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liverpool
For 5.1 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 10.1 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brighton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.4
4.7
4.4
5.0
22.5
23.3
21.7
vs Stronger (7)
9.9
10.7
9.2
4.4
2.7
5.8
22.4
24.0
21.2
vs Similar (41)
9.5
9.7
9.3
4.8
4.8
4.8
22.4
23.2
21.6
vs Weaker (2)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
27.0
-
27.0
% over line
60%
61%
60%
68%
64%
72%
58%
74%
44%
% under line
40%
39%
40%
32%
36%
28%
42%
26%
56%
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
21.8
21.7
21.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
9.1
9.3
8.9
4.9
5.3
4.6
22.4
24.1
21.1
vs Weaker (34)
11.3
11.5
11.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
21.4
20.7
22.2
% over line
61%
67%
56%
54%
56%
52%
51%
54%
48%
% under line
39%
33%
44%
46%
44%
48%
49%
46%
52%
This opponent (Brighton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tottenham
12.8
Manchester United
12.3
Bournemouth
11.8
Exeter
11.7
Coventry
11.7
Plymouth
11.7
Luton
11.6
Southampton
11.6
Crawley Town
11.4
Sheffield Weds
11.3
Bromley
11.3
QPR
11.3
Barnsley
11.3
Sheffield United
11.3
Huddersfield
11.2
Port Vale
11.1
Tranmere
11.1
Manchester City
11.0
Everton
11.0
Fleetwood Town
11.0
Stoke
10.9
Derby
10.9
West Brom
10.9
Harrogate
10.9
Brentford
10.9
Bristol City
10.8
Rotherham
10.8
Swansea
10.8
Morecambe
10.7
Wrexham
10.7
Charlton
10.7
Middlesbrough
10.7
Newcastle
10.7
Notts County
10.7
Wycombe
10.7
Liverpool
10.7
Wolves
10.6
Ipswich
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Mansfield
10.6
Bolton
10.5
Leeds
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Doncaster
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Hull
10.5
Reading
10.5
Burnley
10.5
Birmingham
10.5
Chelsea
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Walsall
10.4
Peterboro
10.4
Millwall
10.3
Swindon
10.3
Crewe
10.3
Accrington
10.2
Oxford
10.2
Bristol Rvs
10.2
Portsmouth
10.2
Lincoln
10.2
Crystal Palace
10.2
Shrewsbury
10.2
Chesterfield
10.1
Bradford
10.1
Sunderland
10.1
Watford
10.1
Stevenage
10.0
Colchester
10.0
Aston Villa
10.0
Blackpool
9.9
Leicester
9.9
Leyton Orient
9.8
Newport County
9.8
Carlisle
9.7
Salford
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Gillingham
9.6
Brighton
9.6
West Ham
9.6
Cardiff
9.4
Barrow
9.4
AFC Wimbledon
9.3
Cambridge
9.2
Preston
9.2
Stockport
9.2
Wigan
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
Burton
8.9
Northampton
8.8
Milton Keynes Dons
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aston Villa
5.5
Chelsea
5.5
Wigan
5.1
Brighton
5.0
Tottenham
5.0
Wolves
5.0
Stevenage
4.9
Portsmouth
4.8
Newcastle
4.8
Sunderland
4.8
Southampton
4.8
Lincoln
4.7
Nottingham Forest
4.6
Bradford
4.6
Bournemouth
4.6
Salford
4.6
Crawley Town
4.6
Plymouth
4.4
Leicester
4.4
Crewe
4.4
Manchester United
4.4
Colchester
4.4
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Bolton
4.3
Millwall
4.3
Cheltenham
4.3
Notts County
4.3
Watford
4.3
Burnley
4.3
QPR
4.3
Doncaster
4.3
Coventry
4.3
Barrow
4.3
Blackburn
4.3
Tranmere
4.3
Blackpool
4.2
Leeds
4.2
Milton Keynes Dons
4.2
Bristol Rvs
4.2
Morecambe
4.2
Liverpool
4.2
Swansea
4.2
Exeter
4.2
Sheffield Weds
4.2
Port Vale
4.2
West Ham
4.2
Norwich
4.2
Cambridge
4.2
Brentford
4.2
Gillingham
4.2
Oxford
4.2
Middlesbrough
4.1
Luton
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.1
Fleetwood Town
4.1
Barnsley
4.1
Birmingham
4.0
Wycombe
4.0
Hull
4.0
Mansfield
4.0
Charlton
4.0
Crystal Palace
4.0
Chesterfield
4.0
Burton
3.9
Preston
3.9
Fulham
3.9
Wrexham
3.9
Huddersfield
3.9
Ipswich
3.9
Arsenal
3.9
Accrington
3.8
Shrewsbury
3.8
Northampton
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Bromley
3.7
Leyton Orient
3.7
Walsall
3.6
Newport County
3.6
West Brom
3.6
Derby
3.6
Cardiff
3.6
Stockport
3.6
Reading
3.6
Carlisle
3.5
Everton
3.5
Manchester City
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Bristol City
3.4
Rotherham
3.3
Peterboro
3.3
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
26.3
Wigan
25.3
Tottenham
25.1
Portsmouth
24.9
Cheltenham
24.8
Accrington
24.8
Luton
24.3
Birmingham
24.0
Grimsby
23.8
Stockport
23.7
Wolves
23.6
Sunderland
23.6
Milton Keynes Dons
23.5
Leeds
23.5
AFC Wimbledon
23.5
Salford
23.5
Chelsea
23.5
Bolton
23.5
Doncaster
23.5
Cambridge
23.4
Blackpool
23.4
Watford
23.4
Crystal Palace
23.4
Chesterfield
23.4
Bournemouth
23.3
Bradford
23.3
Newcastle
23.3
Aston Villa
23.2
Lincoln
23.2
Coventry
23.2
Preston
23.2
Millwall
23.1
Ipswich
23.1
Bristol Rvs
23.0
Bromley
22.9
Huddersfield
22.9
Shrewsbury
22.7
Brighton
22.6
Barrow
22.6
Plymouth
22.5
Exeter
22.5
Swansea
22.5
QPR
22.5
Reading
22.5
Crewe
22.4
Hull
22.3
Newport County
22.3
Southampton
22.3
Nottingham Forest
22.2
Sheffield Weds
22.1
Colchester
22.1
Burton
22.1
Middlesbrough
22.0
Morecambe
21.9
Rotherham
21.9
Arsenal
21.9
Fleetwood Town
21.8
Wycombe
21.8
Stoke
21.7
Liverpool
21.7
Mansfield
21.6
Burnley
21.5
Crawley Town
21.5
Oxford
21.5
Norwich
21.5
Derby
21.5
Everton
21.5
Leicester
21.4
Charlton
21.4
Walsall
21.3
Fulham
21.2
Gillingham
21.2
Wrexham
21.1
West Ham
21.0
Port Vale
21.0
Blackburn
20.9
Leyton Orient
20.8
Bristol City
20.8
Swindon
20.7
Peterboro
20.6
Northampton
20.6
Cardiff
20.6
Carlisle
20.5
Brentford
20.5
Barnsley
20.5
Notts County
20.3
Sheffield United
20.3
Tranmere
20.1
Manchester United
20.1
Harrogate
20.1
West Brom
19.4
Manchester City
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.4%
Under 9.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.5%
Under 3.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.2%
Under 21.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brighton or Draw✗ Miss
62.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Brighton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brighton or Liverpool✓ Hit
73.2%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Brighton + Liverpool
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Liverpool✓ Hit
64.0%
Avg Implied -
36%
27%
37%
covers Draw + Liverpool
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Brighton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.8%
Under
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.9%
Under
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Brighton, so a minus line means Brighton give that many goals of a start and Liverpool receive them. At -1, Brighton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Brighton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Brighton)Actual: Liverpool
Brighton -2
6.6%
Draw -2
10.9%
Liverpool +2
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Brighton)Actual: Liverpool
Brighton -1
17.5%
Draw -1
18.4%
Liverpool +1
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Brighton)Actual: Draw
Brighton +1
62.8%
Draw +1
18.8%
Liverpool -1
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Brighton)Actual: Brighton
Brighton +2
81.6%
Draw +2
11.3%
Liverpool -2
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brighton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.75
0.56
0.64
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.62
0.85
0.38
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.47
1.13
0.47
1.07
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
0.55
0.75
0.50
1.43
0.57
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.42
1.27
0.45
0.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brighton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brighton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.81
0.81
0.50
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.75
0.77
0.77
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liverpool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.27
0.47
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.82
1.00
1.25
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.32
1.36
0.18
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brighton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liverpool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brighton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danny Welbeck31%
João Pedro30%
Kaoru Mitoma27%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu25%
Georginio Rutter22%
Yankuba Minteh16%
Simon Adingra15%
Tariq Lamptey15%
Jack Hinshelwood13%
Solly March10%
Carlos Baleba10%
Matt O'Riley9%
Evan Ferguson7%
Julio Enciso6%
Diego Gómez5%
Yasin Ayari5%
Adam Webster5%
Brajan Gruda4%
Mats Wieffer4%
Pervis Estupiñán3%
Jan Paul van Hecke3%
James Milner0%
Joël Veltman0%
Igor Júlio0%
Jason Steele0%
Lewis Dunk0%
Jakub Moder0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Igor Júlio31%
James Milner25%
Joël Veltman25%
Mats Wieffer21%
Solly March20%
Carlos Baleba20%
Pervis Estupiñán19%
Jack Hinshelwood19%
Lewis Dunk19%
Jan Paul van Hecke18%
Yankuba Minteh16%
Adam Webster15%
Jakub Moder14%
Danny Welbeck14%
João Pedro13%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu12%
Bart Verbruggen12%
Yasin Ayari10%
Georginio Rutter9%
Evan Ferguson7%
Diego Gómez5%
Tariq Lamptey5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Brajan Gruda4%
Kaoru Mitoma2%
Jason Steele0%
Julio Enciso0%
Simon Adingra0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
João Pedro20%
Brajan Gruda16%
Yankuba Minteh14%
Georginio Rutter12%
Mats Wieffer11%
Solly March10%
Tariq Lamptey10%
Kaoru Mitoma10%
Matt O'Riley9%
Joël Veltman8%
Danny Welbeck8%
Jack Hinshelwood6%
Julio Enciso6%
Simon Adingra6%
Adam Webster5%
Carlos Baleba5%
Pervis Estupiñán3%
Jan Paul van Hecke3%
Yasin Ayari3%
Bart Verbruggen2%
James Milner0%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu0%
Igor Júlio0%
Jason Steele0%
Lewis Dunk0%
Jakub Moder0%
Evan Ferguson0%
Diego Gómez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julio Enciso25%
Danny Welbeck14%
João Pedro10%
Georginio Rutter9%
Simon Adingra9%
Pervis Estupiñán8%
Kaoru Mitoma7%
Evan Ferguson7%
Diego Gómez5%
Matt O'Riley4%
Brajan Gruda4%
Jack Hinshelwood3%
Yankuba Minteh3%
Yasin Ayari3%
Carlos Baleba2%
James Milner0%
Joël Veltman0%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu0%
Igor Júlio0%
Jason Steele0%
Lewis Dunk0%
Solly March0%
Adam Webster0%
Jan Paul van Hecke0%
Jakub Moder0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Liverpool
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Salah56%
Cody Gakpo31%
Jayden Danns25%
Luis Díaz24%
Diogo Jota22%
Harvey Elliott18%
Dominik Szoboszlai16%
Alexis Mac Allister14%
Federico Chiesa14%
Darwin Núñez13%
Virgil van Dijk10%
Trent Alexander-Arnold9%
Curtis Jones7%
Ibrahima Konaté5%
Alisson0%
Caoimhin Kelleher0%
Joe Gomez0%
Andrew Robertson0%
Ryan Gravenberch0%
Konstantinos Tsimikas0%
Wataru Endo0%
Jarell Quansah0%
Tyler Morton0%
Conor Bradley0%
James McConnell0%
Trey Nyoni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
James McConnell25%
Alexis Mac Allister22%
Tyler Morton20%
Trey Nyoni20%
Darwin Núñez19%
Ibrahima Konaté19%
Virgil van Dijk14%
Ryan Gravenberch14%
Harvey Elliott14%
Conor Bradley14%
Dominik Szoboszlai12%
Jarell Quansah12%
Joe Gomez12%
Trent Alexander-Arnold11%
Andrew Robertson11%
Konstantinos Tsimikas10%
Cody Gakpo10%
Federico Chiesa7%
Luis Díaz6%
Diogo Jota5%
Curtis Jones4%
Wataru Endo3%
Mohamed Salah2%
Alisson0%
Caoimhin Kelleher0%
Jayden Danns0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Salah37%
Tyler Morton20%
Trey Nyoni20%
Dominik Szoboszlai14%
Conor Bradley14%
Trent Alexander-Arnold14%
Curtis Jones13%
Cody Gakpo12%
Harvey Elliott11%
Darwin Núñez11%
Alexis Mac Allister10%
Luis Díaz10%
Ryan Gravenberch8%
Diogo Jota8%
Federico Chiesa7%
Konstantinos Tsimikas7%
Ibrahima Konaté5%
Andrew Robertson4%
Virgil van Dijk2%
Alisson0%
Caoimhin Kelleher0%
Joe Gomez0%
Wataru Endo0%
Jarell Quansah0%
James McConnell0%
Jayden Danns0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mohamed Salah52%
Cody Gakpo24%
Darwin Núñez21%
Luis Díaz18%
Diogo Jota16%
Harvey Elliott11%
Dominik Szoboszlai10%
Federico Chiesa7%
Curtis Jones4%
Virgil van Dijk4%
Alexis Mac Allister4%
Konstantinos Tsimikas3%
Ibrahima Konaté2%
Trent Alexander-Arnold2%
Alisson0%
Caoimhin Kelleher0%
Joe Gomez0%
Andrew Robertson0%
Ryan Gravenberch0%
Wataru Endo0%
Jarell Quansah0%
Tyler Morton0%
Conor Bradley0%
James McConnell0%
Jayden Danns0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
Brighton's squad is €360m less valuable than Liverpool's (€620m vs €980m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Brighton's attack is €328m less valuable than Liverpool's (€190m vs €518m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Brighton's midfield is €20m less valuable than Liverpool's (€180m vs €201m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Brighton's defence is €12m less valuable than Liverpool's (€249m vs €260m).
England: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Manchester City
Chelsea
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Brentford
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Everton
West Ham
Manchester United
Wolves
Tottenham
Leicester
Ipswich
Southampton