The clash between Brighton and Newcastle feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win at 39%. Home and away win chances sit at 33% and 27% respectively, leaving the draw as the least likely outcome. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, but the most probable total is 2 goals, a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability, a tidy draw that still leaves room for surprises.
Brighton, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Newcastle, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 0.71 conceded against comparable opponents. These figures suggest a tight contest where both teams can find the net but also defend well.
The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 80.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 78.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 78.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.7% (missed), and Over 8.5 corners at 71.5%. Each selection carries its own probability and no other outcome is attached to them.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Newcastle, was tipped to win with a 39% probability, but Brighton’s 2-1 triumph ended the model’s prediction. Brighton, riding a two-game winning run, proved resilient at home, while Newcastle, also on a two-game winning streak, fell short. The model’s selection for the match outcome was incorrect. Over 1.5 goals, hit at 78.8%, and Under 5.5 cards, hit at 78.0%, were accurate, while Over 19.5 fouls, miss at 80.9%, Over 2.5 cards, miss at 76.7%, and Over 8.5 corners, hit at 71.5%, were mixed. The final score of 2-1 confirmed a home win, contradicting the model’s away-win call.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brighton win✓ Hit
33.2%
Avg Implied 33.2% · @ 2.86
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.44
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newcastle win✗ Miss
39.4%
Avg Implied 39.2% · @ 2.42
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brighton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.40
1.64
1.29
2.38
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
1.67
2.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.68
1.48
1.50
1.25
1.85
1.69
vs Weaker (2)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.10
2.19
1.06
1.29
1.14
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.88
1.50
1.75
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.82
0.82
2.40
0.90
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
2.80
0.80
2.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.75+0.2%
Under 2.5
45.9%
@ 2.05-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.8%
2-1 ✓
7.9%
0-1
7.5%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.7%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
Brighton goals ↓
Newcastle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
7.5%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.7%
13%
8.8%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.3%
7.9%
5.9%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.4%
3.6%
2.7%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brighton goals (down), columns = Newcastle goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Newcastle
1.29
Everton
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
West Ham
1.03
Burnley
0.58
Wolves
0.53
Brighton is 0.11 points better than Newcastle in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Tottenham
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
West Ham
1.21
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Burnley
1.00
Wolves
0.71
Brighton is 0.03 goals worse than Newcastle in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Manchester United
1.32
Everton
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
West Ham
1.71
Wolves
1.79
Burnley
1.97
Brighton is 0.24 goals better than Newcastle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
West Ham
42%
Burnley
42%
Brighton is 1.8 percentage points better than Newcastle in terms of average possession (53% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brighton
For 5.2 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Newcastle
For 6.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.4 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brighton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.0
10.3
4.0
3.8
4.2
23.5
24.3
22.7
vs Stronger (7)
8.0
5.5
13.0
3.6
3.2
4.5
24.7
25.0
24.0
vs Similar (41)
10.0
9.9
10.1
4.2
3.9
4.4
23.3
24.2
22.5
vs Weaker (2)
10.0
-
10.0
2.0
-
2.0
22.5
-
22.5
% over line
61%
52%
70%
60%
52%
68%
64%
71%
57%
% under line
39%
48%
30%
40%
48%
32%
36%
29%
43%
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.1
10.2
3.3
3.8
2.8
22.2
23.4
20.9
vs Stronger (11)
11.5
11.6
11.3
3.5
5.0
1.6
23.9
26.4
19.7
vs Similar (31)
10.5
11.5
9.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
22.2
22.6
21.9
vs Weaker (8)
10.2
9.0
12.5
2.1
2.8
1.0
20.2
22.2
16.0
% over line
60%
64%
55%
44%
59%
26%
57%
68%
45%
% under line
40%
36%
45%
56%
41%
74%
43%
32%
55%
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.0
Tottenham
11.0
Liverpool
10.5
Bournemouth
10.5
Brentford
10.4
Nottingham Forest
10.4
Aston Villa
10.3
West Ham
10.3
Fulham
9.9
Crystal Palace
9.9
Sunderland
9.7
Everton
9.7
Brighton
9.7
Wolves
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Arsenal
9.6
Chelsea
9.4
Manchester United
9.4
Manchester City
9.4
Burnley
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bournemouth
5.0
Nottingham Forest
4.7
Brighton
4.6
Chelsea
4.5
Sunderland
4.4
Newcastle
4.4
Crystal Palace
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Wolves
4.2
Aston Villa
4.1
Brentford
3.9
Fulham
3.8
Tottenham
3.8
Liverpool
3.8
Arsenal
3.7
Everton
3.7
Manchester City
3.6
Burnley
3.4
West Ham
3.4
Leeds
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
24.1
Bournemouth
24.1
Brighton
23.2
Aston Villa
23.2
Tottenham
22.9
Newcastle
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Burnley
22.2
Chelsea
22.2
Leeds
22.0
West Ham
22.0
Nottingham Forest
21.9
Manchester United
21.8
Everton
21.7
Arsenal
21.6
Fulham
21.5
Crystal Palace
21.3
Liverpool
20.6
Brentford
18.9
Manchester City
17.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.6%
Under 9.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.3%
Under 3.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
67.1%
Under 21.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brighton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.79
0.57
0.75
0.88
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.68
0.83
0.42
0.46
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.19
0.25
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.29
1.40
0.30
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (5)
2.00
0.60
1.50
0.00
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brighton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brighton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.67
0.86
0.71
1.62
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.80
0.67
0.83
1.38
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
-
-
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Newcastle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newcastle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.00
0.81
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.53
1.00
0.60
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Brighton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brighton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brighton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newcastle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Brighton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danny Welbeck28%
Matt O'Riley17%
Stefanos Tzimas17%
Harry Howell17%
Diego Gómez16%
Brajan Gruda15%
Jack Hinshelwood13%
Yasin Ayari12%
Kaoru Mitoma11%
Tom Watson10%
Georginio Rutter9%
Yankuba Minteh8%
Charalampos Kostoulas8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Olivier Boscagli6%
Jan Paul van Hecke5%
Pascal Groß5%
James Milner5%
Joël Veltman4%
Mats Wieffer4%
Lewis Dunk3%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu2%
Jason Steele0%
Solly March0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Diego Coppola0%
Carlos Baleba0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Coppola33%
Lewis Dunk32%
Mats Wieffer29%
Diego Gómez27%
Jan Paul van Hecke25%
Carlos Baleba20%
Kaoru Mitoma19%
Joël Veltman18%
Olivier Boscagli18%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu17%
Danny Welbeck12%
Charalampos Kostoulas12%
Brajan Gruda10%
Tom Watson10%
Pascal Groß10%
James Milner9%
Stefanos Tzimas8%
Yankuba Minteh8%
Bart Verbruggen8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Georginio Rutter6%
Yasin Ayari3%
Jason Steele0%
Solly March0%
Matt O'Riley0%
Jack Hinshelwood0%
Harry Howell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diego Coppola22%
Stefanos Tzimas17%
Harry Howell17%
Brajan Gruda15%
Pascal Groß14%
Yankuba Minteh11%
Mats Wieffer11%
Jack Hinshelwood10%
Tom Watson10%
Yasin Ayari9%
Georginio Rutter9%
Jan Paul van Hecke8%
Maxim De Cuyper6%
Olivier Boscagli6%
Danny Welbeck5%
James Milner5%
Charalampos Kostoulas4%
Kaoru Mitoma4%
Joël Veltman4%
Diego Gómez3%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu0%
Jason Steele0%
Lewis Dunk0%
Solly March0%
Matt O'Riley0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Carlos Baleba0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matt O'Riley17%
Danny Welbeck15%
Yasin Ayari12%
Diego Gómez11%
Kaoru Mitoma7%
Jack Hinshelwood7%
Georginio Rutter6%
Brajan Gruda5%
Charalampos Kostoulas4%
Lewis Dunk3%
Jan Paul van Hecke2%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu2%
James Milner0%
Joël Veltman0%
Jason Steele0%
Pascal Groß0%
Solly March0%
Olivier Boscagli0%
Mats Wieffer0%
Bart Verbruggen0%
Maxim De Cuyper0%
Tom Watson0%
Diego Coppola0%
Stefanos Tzimas0%
Carlos Baleba0%
Yankuba Minteh0%
Harry Howell0%
Newcastle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anthony Gordon29%
Bruno Guimarães22%
Harvey Barnes21%
William Osula21%
Nick Woltemade20%
Joelinton12%
Yoane Wissa11%
Jacob Murphy9%
Lewis Miley9%
Malick Thiaw8%
Sven Botman5%
Fabian Schär5%
Jacob Ramsey5%
Dan Burn5%
Sandro Tonali4%
Joe Willock3%
Lewis Hall2%
Anthony Elanga2%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Nick Pope0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Alex Murphy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joelinton38%
Dan Burn28%
Bruno Guimarães22%
Malick Thiaw17%
Kieran Trippier17%
Joe Willock16%
Yoane Wissa15%
Fabian Schär14%
Aaron Ramsdale14%
Sandro Tonali13%
Jacob Ramsey12%
Anthony Gordon9%
Lewis Hall9%
Nick Pope6%
Sven Botman5%
Jacob Murphy4%
Valentino Livramento4%
Harvey Barnes4%
Anthony Elanga2%
Nick Woltemade2%
Emil Krafth0%
William Osula0%
Alex Murphy0%
Lewis Miley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Guimarães15%
Lewis Miley12%
Dan Burn12%
Sandro Tonali12%
Kieran Trippier11%
Jacob Murphy11%
Anthony Gordon11%
Harvey Barnes11%
Nick Woltemade8%
Joe Willock8%
Jacob Ramsey7%
Joelinton5%
Lewis Hall4%
Valentino Livramento4%
Yoane Wissa4%
William Osula3%
Nick Pope3%
Sven Botman3%
Anthony Elanga2%
Fabian Schär0%
Emil Krafth0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Alex Murphy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony Gordon24%
Bruno Guimarães15%
Harvey Barnes14%
Jacob Murphy13%
Fabian Schär10%
Joelinton7%
Nick Woltemade6%
William Osula6%
Sandro Tonali4%
Yoane Wissa4%
Sven Botman3%
Joe Willock3%
Kieran Trippier0%
Emil Krafth0%
Nick Pope0%
Dan Burn0%
Jacob Ramsey0%
Aaron Ramsdale0%
Anthony Elanga0%
Valentino Livramento0%
Malick Thiaw0%
Lewis Hall0%
Alex Murphy0%
Lewis Miley0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
BUR (28)
€115m
Brighton's squad is €52m more valuable than Newcastle's (€620m vs €568m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
BUR (14)
€70m
Brighton's attack is €44m less valuable than Newcastle's (€190m vs €234m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
FUL (3)
€28m
BUR (3)
€8m
Brighton's midfield is €56m more valuable than Newcastle's (€180m vs €124m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
BUR (11)
€37m
Brighton's defence is €39m more valuable than Newcastle's (€249m vs €210m).
England: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Arsenal
Manchester City
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Bournemouth
Sunderland
Brentford
Chelsea
Fulham
Everton
Leeds
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
West Ham
Burnley
Wolves