Celje’s recent form, a draw followed by three wins, gives the model a 55 % chance of an away victory, the highest probability and the model’s pick. The market likely sees a closer contest, but the model’s edge comes from Celje’s strong away scoring average of 2.17 goals and low 0.83 conceded, versus Brinje-Grosuplje’s weaker home form. The expected total is 2.9 goals, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 24 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.8 % chance. Home win probability stands at 20 %, draw at 25 %, and away win at 55 %. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Under 7.5 at 99.0 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2 % with an 8 % edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.7 % with a 6 % edge, Under 6.5 at 97.1 % with a 7 % edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.8 % with a 5 % edge, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.5 % with a 5 % edge, and Under 5.5 at 92.5 % with a 5 % edge.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with Brinje-Grosuplje snatching a 4-1 victory over Celje, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite, Away win, which had a 55% probability. The final score of 4-1 meant the model’s pick was wrong. Brinje-Grosuplje’s win extended their recent form, coming off a win, while Celje had just suffered a defeat. The model’s selection of Home under 2.5 HT goals hit, as did Under 7.5, Under 6.5, Home under 1.5 HT goals, Away under 2.5 HT goals, and Under 5.5, all at 99%, 99%, 97.1%, 93.3%, 92.9%, and 92.4% respectively. The picks of Home under 2.5 2H goals, Home under 3.5 goals missed, each with 98.3% and 97.7% probabilities. The model’s prediction of the most likely total of 2 goals at 24% also missed, as did the 1-1, 1-2, and 0-2 scorelines.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje win✓ Hit
20.2%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 3.98
Edge
-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.26
Marathonbet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.12
Dafabet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Draw✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.76
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.05
Dafabet
3.90
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Celje win✗ Miss
55.1%
Avg Implied 52.9% · @ 1.72
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
Dafabet
1.76
William Hil
1.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.10
2.27
0.73
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.25
1.43
0.71
1.44
1.67
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
0.93
3.00
0.75
2.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.27
2.19
1.19
2.00
1.36
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
1.62
1.31
1.44
0.78
1.86
2.00
vs Weaker (12)
2.92
1.08
3.67
1.33
2.17
0.83
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.8%
@ 1.17+0.7%
Under 1.5
20.2%
@ 4.44-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.00
Pinnacle
4.74
BetVictor
4.60
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.59-2.6%
Under 2.5
44.2%
@ 2.23+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Under
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.4%
@ 2.45-4.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
@ 1.49+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.43
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
@ 1.55-3.0%
No
43.9%
@ 2.25+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
No
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 7.00+5.4%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.37+3.9%
0-2
9.4%@ 9.09+4.5%
0-1
9.0%@ 8.41+3.7%
0-0
6.5%@ 13.71+3.2%
1-3
6.1%@ 11.34+2.2%
0-3
5.8%@ 13.60+2.5%
2-1
5.6%@ 11.78+1.9%
Brinje-Grosuplje goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
9.0%
9.4%
5.8%
2.7%
1
4.7%
12%
9.9%
6.1%
2.8%
2
3.0%
5.6%
5.2%
3.2%
1.5%
3
1.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.69 points worse than Celje in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.10 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.38 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Celje
For 4.7 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Brinje-Grosuplje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
13.0
8.0
1.4
1.7
1.0
27.5
27.4
27.7
vs Stronger (3)
12.7
13.0
12.0
4.3
5.5
2.0
24.3
25.0
23.0
vs Similar (24)
9.8
13.0
7.2
2.0
2.0
2.0
29.2
30.0
28.6
vs Weaker (23)
13.0
13.0
-
0.3
0.7
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
54%
71%
33%
24%
26%
22%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
46%
29%
67%
76%
74%
78%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.6%
Under 9.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.6%
Under 3.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.5%
Under 21.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brinje-Grosuplje or Draw✓ Hit
44.9%
Avg Implied 46.6% · @ 1.96
Edge
-1.7%
20%
25%
55%
covers Brinje-Grosuplje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Brinje-Grosuplje or Celje✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
-0.9%
20%
25%
55%
covers Brinje-Grosuplje + Celje
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Draw or Celje✗ Miss
79.8%
Avg Implied 77.2% · @ 1.19
Edge
+2.6%
20%
25%
55%
covers Draw + Celje
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.2%
@ 1.36-2.6%
Under
34.8%
@ 2.87+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Betano
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
BetVictor
2.88
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.5%
@ 2.74-5.3%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.40+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.92
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.85
BetVictor
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
9.1%
@ 6.48-5.2%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.08+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
2.3%
@ 10.88-6.3%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Celje over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.4%
@ 1.11+1.5%
Under
15.6%
@ 5.40-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Under
BetVictor
5.75
1xBet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Celje over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.4%
@ 1.64-0.8%
Under
44.6%
@ 2.11+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Superbet
2.15
BetVictor
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Celje over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.5%
@ 2.96-2.7%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.34+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
BetVictor
3.00
Betano
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Under
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Celje over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 5.83-4.1%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.10+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.80
1xBet
5.70
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.09
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Brinje-Grosuplje, so a minus line means Brinje-Grosuplje give that many goals of a start and Celje receive them. At -1, Brinje-Grosuplje must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Brinje-Grosuplje win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.73
0.88
0.81
1.36
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.69
0.78
0.56
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (12)
1.50
0.67
1.17
0.83
1.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.27+2.3%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.36-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Under
William Hil
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.7%
@ 2.29-3.6%
Under 1.5
63.3%
@ 1.54+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.44
Betano
2.37
Marathonbet
2.33
1xBet
2.33
Unibet
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 4.96-4.7%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.13+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Betano
4.85
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
31.4%
@ 2.26-9.6%
Under
68.6%
@ 1.57+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Marathonbet
2.32
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 7.50-5.6%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.05+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.10
1xBet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
58.0%
@ 1.62+1.0%
Under
42.0%
@ 2.15-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.4%
@ 4.06-0.3%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.19+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.30
Betano
4.05
10Bet
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Under
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 9.58-2.6%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brinje-Grosuplje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.07
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.81
0.57
0.57
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.36
1.50
0.25
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.53
1.31
0.38
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.62
0.67
0.22
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.42
2.50
0.50
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.7%
@ 1.16+2.4%
Under 0.5
17.3%
@ 4.71-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
Under
1xBet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
William Hil
4.50
Betano
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.5%
@ 1.79-2.4%
Under 1.5
50.5%
@ 1.92+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.77
Under
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.9%
@ 3.34-3.7%
Under 2.5
76.1%
@ 1.27+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.4%
@ 1.87-8.0%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.82+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
10Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.74
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
10.6%
@ 5.35-6.6%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.11+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
5.40
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.75
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
1.7%
@ 13.38-5.4%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
64.4%
@ 1.42-0.5%
Under
35.6%
@ 2.62+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.65
10Bet
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.8%
@ 2.97-1.2%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.34+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.90
Betano
2.90
Under
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 7.37-3.8%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.06+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
8.00
1xBet
7.70
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+5.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.4%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
88.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.4%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
1xBet
1.09
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.9%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.18
+4.5%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.13
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
79.8%
1.19
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
79.8%
1.18
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.15
-
-
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.6%
1.19
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.1%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+3.7%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.3%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.5%
1.40
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
+5.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
71.5%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.2%
1.34
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Brinje-Grosuplje's squad is €11m less valuable than Celje's (€3m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Brinje-Grosuplje's attack is €6m less valuable than Celje's (€1m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Celje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Brinje-Grosuplje's defence is €5m less valuable than Celje's (€1m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Koper
Bravo
Aluminij
Olimpija Ljubljana
Nafta
Mura
Radomlje