Brinje-Grosuplje are favourites to win at home against Mura, with a recent-form storyline of coming off a draw. The home side has been in good form at home, scoring an average of 2.62 goals and conceding just 0.77, particularly against weaker opponents. In contrast, Mura have struggled away from home, scoring only 0.83 goals and conceding 2.83 against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 56% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 19% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.7%. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals as its selection, with a probability of 79.3%. Brinje-Grosuplje have a 56% chance of winning, a 25% chance of drawing, and a 19% chance of losing.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Mura emerged victorious with a 1-2 final score, claiming an away win. This result extends their recent form, having come off a win and boasting a stronger opponent strength in their away games, averaging 0.83 goals scored and 3.17 conceded. Their away win defied the pre-match favourite, Brinje-Grosuplje, which had a 56% probability of winning. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model suggested Over 1.5 with a 79.2% probability, and this call hit, as the final score indeed exceeded 1.5 goals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje win✗ Miss
56.1%
Avg Implied 39.6% · @ 2.29
Edge
+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.40
Unibet
2.35
Dafabet
2.33
Betano
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied 28.7% · @ 3.16
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
10Bet
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Mura win✓ Hit
19.3%
Avg Implied 31.6% · @ 2.87
Edge
-12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.00
Dafabet
3.00
Pinnacle
3.00
Betano
2.92
10Bet
2.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.97
2.47
0.73
1.73
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.38
1.38
vs Weaker (16)
2.69
0.94
3.11
0.89
2.14
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.77
1.00
1.25
1.29
2.36
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.71
0.89
1.11
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.81
1.14
1.43
1.67
2.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.2%
@ 1.29+7.8%
Under 1.5
20.8%
@ 3.24-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.58
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.9%
@ 1.94+6.8%
Under 2.5
45.1%
@ 1.79-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.86
888Sport
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
@ 3.30+4.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
@ 1.28-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.55
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.33
888Sport
3.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.0%
@ 1.72+1.5%
No
45.0%
@ 1.97-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.74
888Sport
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
No
1xBet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
888Sport
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 5.78+4.2%
2-1
9.9%@ 8.30+4.6%
2-0
9.7%@ 10.34+5.5%
1-0
9.4%@ 7.29+3.4%
0-0
6.7%@ 8.68+1.7%
3-1
6.1%@ 16.95+3.6%
3-0
6.0%@ 21.11+4.0%
1-2 ✓
5.4%@ 9.69+0.9%
Brinje-Grosuplje goals ↓
Mura goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
4.7%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
1
9.4%
12%
5.4%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.9%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.0%
6.1%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (down), columns = Mura goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.14 points better than Mura in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.43 goals better than Mura in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.29 goals better than Mura in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Mura
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
24.9
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
53.7%
@ 2.35+14.5%
Under 9.5
46.3%
@ 1.51-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.7%
Under 21.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brinje-Grosuplje or Draw✗ Miss
80.7%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Brinje-Grosuplje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje or Mura✓ Hit
75.4%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Brinje-Grosuplje + Mura
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mura✓ Hit
43.9%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + Mura
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brinje-Grosuplje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.47
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.36
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
0.56
1.56
0.56
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.44
0.81
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.07
0.56
0.89
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.88
0.29
0.71
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brinje-Grosuplje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.13
0.40
1.07
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.50
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (16)
1.56
0.38
1.56
0.33
1.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.56
0.44
0.71
1.21
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.64
0.33
0.22
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.94
0.86
0.71
1.00
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.2%
1.29
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
70.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
-9.9%
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Brinje-Grosuplje's squad is €2m less valuable than Mura's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Mura have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Mura have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Brinje-Grosuplje's defence is €1m less valuable than Mura's (€1m vs €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →