Brinje-Grosuplje’s defensive record, conceding just 0.71 goals per game at home against similarly matched opponents, sets the tone for a tight, low-scoring affair. Their recent win over Celje, 4-1, gives them a lift, while Nafta’s return to the field after three straight defeats, a 2-3 loss to Maribor, suggests a cautious approach. The model favours a home win, with a 42% chance, followed by a 32% draw and a 26% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a modest tally, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% probability. Brinje-Grosuplje average 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per match, whereas Nafta averages 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded away. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 5.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.8%), Under 4.5 (93.7%) and Home +2 handicap (90.7%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje win
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nafta win
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.10
2.40
0.73
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.25
1.43
0.71
1.44
1.67
vs Weaker (13)
2.62
0.92
3.14
0.71
2.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.97
2.07
1.27
1.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
0.88
1.71
1.14
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
0.73
2.67
0.83
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.5%
Under 1.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.2%
Under 2.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.9%
No
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
13.5%
1-0
13.4%
0-1
9.6%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.9%
Brinje-Grosuplje goals ↓
Nafta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.6%
4.9%
1.5%
0.3%
1
13%
15%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.9%
8.0%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.6%
3.2%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (down), columns = Nafta goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.14 points better than Nafta in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Brinje-Grosuplje is 0.14 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals scored per game (1.57 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Brinje-Grosuplje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Nafta
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (24)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.9%
Under 9.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.5%
Under 21.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Brinje-Grosuplje or Draw
74.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Brinje-Grosuplje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje or Nafta
68.0%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Brinje-Grosuplje + Nafta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nafta
58.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
32%
26%
covers Draw + Nafta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5
Over
70.2%
Under
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5
Over
34.1%
Under
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5
Over
59.2%
Under
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5
Over
22.6%
Under
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Brinje-Grosuplje, so a minus line means Brinje-Grosuplje give that many goals of a start and Nafta receive them. At -1, Brinje-Grosuplje must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Brinje-Grosuplje win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Brinje-Grosuplje)
Brinje-Grosuplje -2
6.4%
Draw -2
12.6%
Nafta +2
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Brinje-Grosuplje)
Brinje-Grosuplje -1
19.0%
Draw -1
23.0%
Nafta +1
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Brinje-Grosuplje)
Brinje-Grosuplje +1
74.0%
Draw +1
16.7%
Nafta -1
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Brinje-Grosuplje)
Brinje-Grosuplje +2
90.7%
Draw +2
6.9%
Nafta -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Brinje-Grosuplje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.20
0.33
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.44
0.86
0.14
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.54
1.57
0.43
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.44
0.57
0.43
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.18
0.83
0.17
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.9%
Under 0.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.4%
Under 1.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.9%
Under 2.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.5%
Under
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.9%
Under
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Brinje-Grosuplje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.20
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.81
0.57
0.57
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.38
1.57
0.29
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.33
0.73
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.44
1.14
0.71
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.55
1.83
0.67
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.8%
Under 0.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.4%
Under 1.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.0%
Under
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.6%
Under
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
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Home over 0.5 goals
70.2%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Brinje-Grosuplje and Nafta have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
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Maribor
Koper
Celje
Bravo
Aluminij
Olimpija Ljubljana
Mura
Radomlje