Defensive solidity will dominate the forecast, with BSK Banja Luka conceding 2.33 goals per game at home against stronger opposition while scoring only 0.67. Celik, meanwhile, has struggled to find the net, averaging 0.67 away goals against stronger sides. The model favours a home win, assigning BSK a 45% chance, a draw 33%, and Celik 23%. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a tight affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for BSK, with a 15.4% probability. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%). These picks reflect the low-scoring, defensive nature of the matchup.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
BSK Banja Luka win
44.7%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.52
Edge
+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.55
Unibet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Draw
32.7%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.18
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.30
1xBet
3.25
Unibet
3.00
Čelik win
22.6%
Avg Implied 35.7% · @ 2.53
Edge
-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Unibet
2.43
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
BSK Banja Luka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
2.17
0.67
2.33
0.67
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
0.67
2.33
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Čelik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.22
1.40
0.80
0.25
1.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (5)
1.40
0.60
1.75
0.75
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (BSK Banja Luka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
60.0%
@ 1.36-6.9%
Under 1.5
40.0%
@ 2.75+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.36
Under
Unibet
2.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.6%
@ 2.08-11.9%
Under 2.5
68.4%
@ 1.60+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
Under
Unibet
1.60
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.8%
@ 3.65-11.1%
Under 3.5
86.2%
@ 1.21+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.65
Under
Unibet
1.21
Both teams to score
Yes
38.9%
@ 1.85-10.7%
No
61.1%
@ 1.82+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.85
No
Unibet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.4%
0-0
15.2%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
5.0%
0-2
4.2%
BSK Banja Luka goals ↓
Čelik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
9.5%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.0%
1.3%
0.2%
2
10.0%
7.7%
3.0%
0.8%
0.1%
3
4.0%
3.1%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.2%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = BSK Banja Luka goals (down), columns = Čelik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Čelik
1.36
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
BSK Banja Luka
1.22
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
BSK Banja Luka is 0.14 points worse than Čelik in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Čelik
1.07
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
BSK Banja Luka
0.96
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Sloga Doboj
0.58
BSK Banja Luka is 0.11 goals worse than Čelik in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Čelik
1.09
BSK Banja Luka
1.21
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
BSK Banja Luka is 0.12 goals worse than Čelik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
BSK Banja Luka or Draw
77.4%
Avg Implied 64.5% · @ 1.38
Edge
+13.0%
45%
33%
23%
covers BSK Banja Luka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.38
BSK Banja Luka or Čelik
67.3%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.26
Edge
-3.3%
45%
33%
23%
covers BSK Banja Luka + Čelik
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.26
Draw or Čelik
55.3%
Avg Implied 64.9% · @ 1.37
Edge
-9.7%
45%
33%
23%
covers Draw + Čelik
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.37
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 0.5
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 1.5
Over
33.7%
@ 2.55-1.4%
Under
66.3%
@ 1.38+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Under
Unibet
1.38
BSK Banja Luka over/under 2.5
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 0.5
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5
Over
18.2%
@ 2.50-17.7%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.40+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.50
Under
Unibet
1.40
Čelik over/under 2.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to BSK Banja Luka, so a minus line means BSK Banja Luka give that many goals of a start and Čelik receive them. At -1, BSK Banja Luka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal BSK Banja Luka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (BSK Banja Luka)
BSK Banja Luka -2
6.9%
Draw -2
13.5%
Čelik +2
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (BSK Banja Luka)
BSK Banja Luka -1
20.3%
@ 4.50+2.4%
Draw -1
24.4%
@ 3.45+1.1%
Čelik +1
55.3%
@ 1.37-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
4.50
Draw
Unibet
3.45
Away
Unibet
1.37
Handicap +1 (BSK Banja Luka)
BSK Banja Luka +1
77.4%
@ 1.38+19.6%
Draw +1
15.3%
@ 3.35-8.5%
Čelik -1
7.3%
@ 4.35-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.38
Draw
Unibet
3.35
Away
Unibet
4.35
Handicap +2 (BSK Banja Luka)
BSK Banja Luka +2
92.7%
Draw +2
5.6%
Čelik -2
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
BSK Banja Luka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Čelik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.56
0.56
0.80
0.40
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BSK Banja Luka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
66.3%
Under 0.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.8%
@ 2.90-2.2%
Under 1.5
71.2%
@ 1.30+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.90
Under
Unibet
1.30
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.7%
Under 2.5
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
BSK Banja Luka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Čelik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Čelik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.20
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (BSK Banja Luka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
Under 0.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.8%
Under 1.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.1%
Under 2.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BSK Banja Luka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.9%
Under
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Čelik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.2%
1.21
Unibet
1.21
-
-
-
-
+11.1%
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
81.8%
1.40
Unibet
1.40
-
-
-
-
+17.7%
Away +2 handicap
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.4%
1.38
Unibet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+13.0%
Home +1 handicap
77.4%
1.38
Unibet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+19.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.2%
1.30
Unibet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (33)
€9m
FS (32)
€9m
ZRI (30)
€8m
ZS (19)
€4m
RB (27)
€4m
ČEL (26)
€4m
SB (20)
€4m
VEL (23)
€3m
SD (24)
€3m
BBL (23)
€2m
BSK Banja Luka's squad is €2m less valuable than Čelik's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (16)
€5m
ZRI (13)
€4m
FS (11)
€3m
RB (12)
€2m
ZS (7)
€2m
VEL (9)
€2m
SD (9)
€2m
ČEL (7)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
BBL (9)
€1m
BSK Banja Luka and Čelik have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FS (7)
€3m
ZRI (4)
€2m
ZS (7)
€1m
SB (7)
€1m
ČEL (8)
€1m
BBL (4)
€1m
VEL (5)
€0m
BBL (4)
€0m
RB (4)
€0m
SD (4)
€0m
BSK Banja Luka and Čelik have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BBL (13)
€4m
FS (14)
€3m
ZRI (13)
€3m
RB (11)
€1m
ČEL (11)
€1m
VEL (9)
€1m
SD (11)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
ZS (5)
€1m
BBL (10)
€1m
BSK Banja Luka and Čelik have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zrinjski
Borac Banja Luka
Siroki Brijeg
FK Sarajevo
Sloga Doboj
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
Radnik Bijeljina