Buckley Town and Denbigh Town meet in the Wales FAW Championship on August 1st. Denbigh Town's recent form has been concerning, having lost their last five matches, including a 1-2 defeat to Bangor City 1876 FC. Buckley Town, on the other hand, has been struggling, with five consecutive losses of their own, most recently a 1-2 defeat to Llanuwchllyn. Despite this, Buckley Town is the favourite to win, with a 42% chance of taking all three points.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 4.4 goals. The most likely score is a 2-2 draw, but the model's selection is the home win, with Buckley Town expected to score 2.18 goals on average at home and concede 2.45 goals. Denbigh Town, meanwhile, scores 1.22 goals on average when playing away against similar opponents and concedes 2.56 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 42% chance of success. The other suggested picks are Over 1.5 (93.7% chance), Over 2.5 (81% chance), and BTTS Yes (79.2% chance). Buckley Town has a 42% chance of winning, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 37% chance of losing.
A stunning upset in the Wales: FAW Championship as Buckley Town's five-match losing streak came to an end with a 2-4 loss at home to Denbigh Town. The win extends Denbigh Town's run of mixed results. The model's selection, a Home win, was wrong, with the pre-match favourite's probability of success standing at 42%. In contrast, the model predicted an Away win with a probability of 37%. The model's call was incorrect. The model's selection of an Away win proved correct, however, as the actual result was indeed an Away win. The suggested picks all hit, with Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and BTTS Yes all coming to fruition with probabilities of 93.7%, 81.0%, and 79.2% respectively.
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 2.47 | 2.29 | 2.64 | 1.12 | 2.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.84 | 2.36 | 2.42 | 2.67 | 1.31 | 2.08 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 3.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 0.33 | 3.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.93 | 1.92 | 1.31 | 1.71 | 2.41 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.22 | 1.92 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.44 | 2.56 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.20 | 3.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Denbigh Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 2.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 1.07 | 0.62 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.80 | 1.08 | 0.92 | 1.25 | 0.69 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 1.44 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.47 | 1.43 | 1.57 | 0.50 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.04 | 1.28 | 1.50 | 1.42 | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.40 | 2.40 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Denbigh Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.83 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.89 | 0.44 | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93.7% | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.05 | - | - | +10.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 81.0% | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.31 | +13.6% | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 79.2% | 1.30 | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.22 | +9.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 05/09/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/03/25 | H | 0-5 | |
| 21/12/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/02/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/09/23 | A | 6-5 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-6 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/02/26 | A | 5-1 |
Denbigh Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 31/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Bala Town | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - |
| 10 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 12 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Newport City | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Afan Lido | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Guilsfield | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 | Rhyl | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Ruthin Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Caersws | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 22 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 26 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | - |
| 27 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Buckley Town | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |