Buckley Town’s recent 0-2 loss to Caersws and Penrhyncoch’s 0-4 defeat to Guilsfield hint at defensive frailties, yet the model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.5 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 9.9% chance. Home advantage is evident: Buckley average 1.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded against similar opposition, while Penrhyncoch averages only 0.87 scored and 2.47 conceded on the road. The model favours a Buckley win, with a 46% chance, a draw at 24%, and a Penrhyncoch win at 30%. Suggested picks include an 87.6% chance of Over 1.5 goals. The match is expected to see both sides find the net, but the final outcome will likely see Buckley edge out a victory.
The pre-match favourite, Buckley Town, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call of a home win incorrect. The model had given Buckley Town a 46% chance of triumph, while the draw probability was 24% and Penrhyncoch 30%. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, missed, with an 87.6% probability that the total would exceed 1.5. Both sides were coming off defeats - Buckley Town after a 0-2 loss to Caersws and Penrhyncoch after a 0-4 defeat to Guilsfield - yet neither could force a goal. The final score of 0-0 underscored the defensive stalemate.
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 2.30 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 2.33 | 0.87 | 2.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 1.03 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 2.33 | 0.87 | 2.47 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Penrhyncoch goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.85 | 0.65 | 0.90 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.97 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.67 | 0.97 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.53 | 1.13 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.23 | 0.67 | 1.20 | 1.13 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.85 | 1.45 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 1.43 | 0.40 | 1.53 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 0.37 | 1.43 | 0.40 | 1.53 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 3-4 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 16/04/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/04/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 01/04/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/03/24 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/03/24 | A | 1-3 | |
| 05/03/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 23/02/24 | A | 1-5 | |
| 10/02/24 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/02/24 | A | 1-2 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/23 | A | 3-2 | |
| 10/04/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 07/04/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 01/04/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 25/03/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/03/23 | H | 0-5 | |
| 11/03/23 | H | 2-2 | |
| 04/03/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/02/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/02/23 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |