Buckley Town’s recent 0-2 loss to Caersws leaves them looking vulnerable at home, yet the model still favours a home win, assigning a 58% chance to victory. The probability split is 58% for a Buckley Town win, 20% for a draw, and 22% for a Penrhyncoch win. The expected total of 4.0 goals and a 22% chance of 6 + goals point to a high-scoring affair. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Buckley Town, with an 8.5% probability. Buckley’s home form shows 2.7 goals scored and 2.4 conceded against similar opposition, while Penrhyncoch, playing away, averages 1.08 goals scored and 2.58 conceded to similar teams. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 91.7% probability (hit), Over 2.5 at 76.5% (miss), and BTTS Yes at 72.4% (miss). The model’s selection for the match result remains a Buckley Town win.
The upset was stark: Buckley Town, the pre-match favourite with a 58% chance of triumph, fell to a 0-2 defeat, leaving the model’s call wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed an away win for Penrhyncoch, who were coming off a 0-4 loss but managed to overturn the odds. The model’s selection of a home win was therefore missed. The suggested picks delivered mixed results: Over 1.5, with a 91.7% probability, hit; Over 2.5, at 76.5%, missed; and BTTS Yes, at 72.4%, also missed. The match finished with a total of two goals, far below the most likely 6+ outcome.
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 2.27 | 1.13 | 2.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.95 | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.40 | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.20 | 2.20 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 1.50 | 0.94 | 2.56 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.58 | 2.12 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 2.58 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.60 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Penrhyncoch goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 4.7% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.65 | 1.15 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 1.07 | 0.79 | 1.07 | 0.25 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.58 | 1.08 | 0.83 | 1.17 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.20 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.33 | 1.47 | 1.40 | 0.73 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.30 | 1.15 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.70 | 1.70 | 0.80 | 1.80 | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 1.58 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 72.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 6-0 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/07/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/02/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 3-4 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/02/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 31/01/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 23/01/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/01/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 26/12/25 | A | 5-0 | |
| 20/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/12/25 | H | 6-4 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 6-0 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 04/02/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 31/01/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 24/01/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/01/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 31/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/12/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 05/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 6-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Llandudno | 30 | 80 | 87% | 2.7 | 77 | 22 | +55 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Trefelin | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 83 | 17 | +66 | 3.3 | 93% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 3 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 76 | 80% | 2.5 | 75 | 20 | +55 | 3.2 | 87% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Airbus UK | 30 | 75 | 80% | 2.5 | 93 | 22 | +71 | 3.8 | 93% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.9 | 87% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 31 | 60 | 58% | 1.9 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 3.3 | 81% | 61% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 8 | Newtown AFC | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 51 | 49 | +2 | 3.3 | 87% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 | Rhyl | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 37% | 1.5 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 2.8 | 67% | 37% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 2.4 | 63% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Guilsfield | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 41 | 40% | 1.4 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 2.8 | 77% | 60% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 15 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 3.7 | 87% | 77% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 83% | 63% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Brickfield Rangers | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 19 | Treowen Stars | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | - |
| 20 | Newport City | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 2.8 | 70% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 73% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 22 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 24 | Afan Lido | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 3.0 | 67% | 53% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | - |
| 25 | Buckley Town | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 50 | 77 | -27 | 4.2 | 90% | 80% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | - |
| 26 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 29 | 20% | 1.0 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 3.6 | 90% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 27 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 29 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 28 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 47 | 87 | -40 | 4.5 | 90% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | - |
| 29 | Baglan Dragons | 31 | 25 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 30 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 32 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 10 | 3% | 0.3 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 3.4 | 83% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | - |