Buckley Town, fresh from a 0-2 loss to Caersws, will look to rebound against Penrhyncoch, who also entered the match after a 0-4 defeat to Guilsfield. The model favours a home win, giving Buckley a 53% chance, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 25% chance of an away win. With an expected total of 3.8 goals, the most probable total is three, occurring 21% of the time, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8.9% probability. Buckley’s home form shows they average 2.11 goals scored and 3.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Penrhyncoch’s away record is 0.93 scored and 2.43 conceded. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9%, Under 7.5 at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.0%, Under 6.5 at 91.3%, and Over 1.5 at 89.7% with a 4% edge.
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 2.37 | 2.00 | 2.62 | 1.06 | 2.18 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.57 | 2.57 | 2.11 | 3.00 | 1.17 | 2.25 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.22 | 1.89 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 2.03 | 2.00 | 1.46 | 0.88 | 2.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.38 | 2.04 | 1.92 | 1.58 | 0.93 | 2.43 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.33 | 2.33 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 3.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Penrhyncoch goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 4.4% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 1.15 | 0.53 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.67 | 1.14 | 0.89 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.92 | 0.35 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Buckley Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.47 | 1.15 | 1.46 | 0.53 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.90 | 1.43 | 1.22 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.56 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Penrhyncoch| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.03 | 1.23 | 0.54 | 0.53 | 1.41 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.81 | 1.04 | 1.17 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 96.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 95.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 93.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 93.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 91.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 89.7% | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.08 | - | - | - | +5.6% |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 89.3% | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.05 | - | - | - | +3.8% |
| Home +2 handicap | 88.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 87.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 86.7% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | +7.9% |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 82.2% | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | - | - | - | -2.4% |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 81.4% | 1.10 | 1.11 | 1.10 | - | - | - | -1.1% |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 81.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 80.4% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | -2.1% |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 78.8% | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.33 | - | - | - | +10.8% |
| Home or Away | 78.2% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.16 | +0.8% |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +7.7% |
| Home or Draw | 75.0% | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.15 | -2.8% |
| Home +1 handicap | 75.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 74.6% | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.19 | - | - | -2.2% |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 74.3% | 1.39 | 1.39 | - | - | - | - | +9.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 72.4% | 1.41 | 1.44 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | +7.8% |
| BTTS Yes | 70.5% | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | +7.3% |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 6-0 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 26/07/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/02/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 3-4 |
Buckley Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 13/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-6 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 1-0 |
Penrhyncoch| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |